\begin{table}[htbp]
\centering\small
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Summary statistics: Fed June 2026 state prices (11 December 2025 -- 22 May 2026)}
\label{tab:summary_stats}
\setlength{\tabcolsep}{4pt}
\begin{tabular}{l rrrr rrrr r}
\toprule
 & \multicolumn{4}{c}{Level $p_{j,t}$} & \multicolumn{5}{c}{Daily change $\Delta p_{j,t}$ (percentage points)} \\
\cmidrule(lr){2-5}\cmidrule(lr){6-10}
Contract & Mean & SD & Min & Max & Mean & SD & Skew & Ex.\ kurt & ADF \\
\midrule
    50+ bps decrease & 0.057 & 0.041 & 0.004 & 0.130 & -0.087 & 0.76 & -1.70 & 13.2 & -5.35 \\
    25 bps decrease & 0.301 & 0.195 & 0.006 & 0.570 & -0.363 & 3.21 & -2.61 & 14.4 & -5.82 \\
    No change & 0.610 & 0.237 & 0.300 & 0.981 & 0.426 & 3.34 & 1.65 & 16.1 & -10.47 \\
    25 bps increase & 0.032 & 0.019 & 0.005 & 0.084 & -0.018 & 1.16 & 0.98 & 9.8 & -5.76 \\
    50+ bps increase & 0.016 & 0.015 & 0.002 & 0.061 & -0.026 & 0.63 & 1.12 & 17.0 & -7.84 \\
    State-price sum $\Sigma_t$ & 1.0167 & 0.0261 & 0.9605 & 1.1080 & -0.068 & 1.83 & -0.41 & 2.5 & -8.71 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\small
\item \textit{Notes:} $T=146$ daily closes (calendar days, Polymarket trades continuously) after exclusion of the listing day. Levels are in USDC; changes are in percentage points of the \$1 payoff. ADF is the augmented Dickey--Fuller statistic (constant, AIC lag) for the daily changes; the 1\% critical value is $-3.48$. Prices are bounded in $[0,1]$ and converge to 0 or 1 at resolution, so level series are not stationary by construction.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}