\begin{table}[htbp]
\centering\small
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Price of the complete set of state claims: law-of-one-price tests}
\label{tab:completeness}
\begin{tabular}{l r r}
\toprule
 & Fed June 2026 & Election 2024 \\
 & ($N=5$ states) & ($N=17$ candidates) \\
\midrule
\multicolumn{3}{l}{\textit{Panel A: distribution of $\Sigma_t=\sum_j p_{j,t}$}} \\
    Observations $T$ & 146 & 304 \\
    Mean & 1.0167 & 1.0146 \\
    Median & 1.0093 & 1.0105 \\
    Standard deviation & 0.0261 & 0.0313 \\
    Minimum & 0.9605 & 0.9660 \\
    Maximum & 1.1080 & 1.5150 \\
\midrule
\multicolumn{3}{l}{\textit{Panel B: deviation $\Sigma_t-1$}} \\
    Mean deviation (overround) & 0.0167 & 0.0146 \\
    HAC standard error (5 lags) & 0.0044 & 0.0020 \\
    $t$-statistic, $H_0$: $\mathbb{{E}}[\Sigma_t-1]=0$ & 3.80 & 7.42 \\
    Mean absolute deviation & 0.0209 & 0.0162 \\
    Share of days with $\Sigma_t>1$ & 83.6\% & 91.8\% \\
    Share within $\pm 0.5$ pp & 25.3\% & 12.8\% \\
    Share within $\pm 1$ pp & 43.8\% & 42.4\% \\
    Share within $\pm 2$ pp & 65.1\% & 74.0\% \\
    Share within $\pm 5$ pp & 87.0\% & 98.7\% \\
\midrule
\multicolumn{3}{l}{\textit{Panel C: discount-adjusted bounds, $e^{-r_t\tau_t}\le\Sigma_t\le 1$}} \\
    Mean lower bound $e^{{-r_t\tau_t}}$ & 0.9890 & 0.9783 \\
    Mean $\Sigma_t-e^{{-r_t\tau_t}}$ & 0.0277 & 0.0363 \\
    Share inside bounds ($\pm 0.5$ pp) & 29.5\% & 18.4\% \\
    Share above upper bound & 65.1\% & 81.2\% \\
\midrule
\multicolumn{3}{l}{\textit{Panel D: dynamics of $\Sigma_t-1$}} \\
    AR(1) coefficient & 0.721 & 0.060 \\
    Half-life (days) & 2.1 & 0.2 \\
    ADF statistic (constant, AIC lag) & -2.82 & -16.40 \\
    ADF $p$-value & 0.055 & 0.000 \\
    Slope on time-to-resolution $\tau_t$ (years) & 0.113 & 0.020 \\
    \quad HAC $t$-statistic & 4.87 & 3.73 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\small
\item \textit{Notes:} $\Sigma_t$ is the sum of the daily closing prices of all contracts in the neg-risk group on days when all contracts are quoted. The Fed sample excludes the listing day (10 December 2025, $\Sigma=1.570$ on seeded quotes; including it gives mean 1.0204, SD 0.0525, maximum absolute deviation 0.570); the election sample likewise excludes its first complete day (4 January 2024, $\Sigma=1.515$). The lower bound discounts the \$1 payoff of the complete set at the effective federal funds rate (FRED DFF) over the remaining time to resolution; the upper bound is one because a complete set can be minted and its NO legs converted immediately through the neg-risk adapter. HAC standard errors use the Newey--West estimator with 5 lags.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}