# Tier-1/2 confirmatory analysis — dev `tier1_taskvector_e105e3d91386`, confirmatory `tier1_taskvector_confirmatory_82a78041c0ce`

| pair | task | eligible (own vector dev) | selected condition (dev acc) | conf: zero / few / own / selected / best control | selected − best control [95% CI] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| qwen3b->qwen1.5b | capital | yes (0.86) | ridge|L22|a1.0 (0.18) | 0.00 / 1.00 / 0.82 / **0.09** / 0.00 (random_orth|L19|a1.0) | +0.09 [+0.00, +0.23]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| qwen3b->qwen1.5b | morph | no (0.00) | procrustes|L2|a1.0 (0.00) | 0.00 / 0.30 / 0.00 / **0.00** / 0.00 (random_orth|L2|a1.0) | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| qwen3b->qwen1.5b | addthree | no (0.00) | procrustes|L2|a1.0 (0.00) | 0.00 / 0.86 / 0.00 / **0.00** / 0.00 (random_orth|L2|a1.0) | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| **qwen3b->qwen1.5b** | | | | | **H6 not supported (0 task(s))** |
| qwen1.5b->qwen3b | capital | yes (0.82) | procrustes|L28|a1.0 (0.73) | 0.14 / 1.00 / 0.82 / **0.55** / 0.18 (ctl_unrelated_task_vector(antonym)|L28) | +0.36 [+0.14, +0.59] ✔; pre-A1 control 0.27; shuffled-query diag. 0.27 |
| qwen1.5b->qwen3b | morph | no (0.00) | procrustes|L2|a1.0 (0.00) | 0.00 / 0.40 / 0.00 / **0.00** / 0.00 (random_orth|L2|a1.0) | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| qwen1.5b->qwen3b | addthree | no (0.00) | procrustes|L2|a1.0 (0.00) | 0.00 / 1.00 / 0.00 / **0.00** / 0.00 (random_orth|L2|a1.0) | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| **qwen1.5b->qwen3b** | | | | | **H6 partial (1 task(s))** |
| llama3b->qwen3b | antonym | yes (0.88) | cca|L25|a1.0 (0.81) | 0.09 / 0.94 / 0.91 / **0.81** / 0.31 (ctl_unrelated_task_vector(capital)|L25) | +0.50 [+0.31, +0.69] ✔; pre-A1 control 0.81; shuffled-query diag. 0.81 |
| llama3b->qwen3b | capital | yes (0.82) | cca|L18|a1.0 (0.50) | 0.14 / 1.00 / 0.82 / **0.64** / 0.45 (ctl_replace_donor_zeroshot|sham_map|L18) | +0.18 [+0.05, +0.36]; pre-A1 control 0.45; shuffled-query diag. 0.41 |
| llama3b->qwen3b | morph | no (0.00) | procrustes|L2|a1.0 (0.00) | 0.00 / 0.40 / 0.00 / **0.00** / 0.00 (random_orth|L2|a1.0) | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| llama3b->qwen3b | addthree | no (0.00) | procrustes|L2|a1.0 (0.00) | 0.00 / 1.00 / 0.00 / **0.00** / 0.00 (random_orth|L2|a1.0) | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| **llama3b->qwen3b** | | | | | **H6 partial (1 task(s))** |
| qwen3b->llama3b | antonym | yes (0.84) | procrustes|L14|a1.0 (0.66) | 0.06 / 0.91 / 0.84 / **0.59** / 0.34 (ctl_unrelated_task_vector(capital)|L19) | +0.25 [+0.09, +0.41]; pre-A1 control 0.38; shuffled-query diag. 0.38 |
| qwen3b->llama3b | capital | yes (1.00) | procrustes|L14|a1.0 (0.05) | 0.09 / 1.00 / 1.00 / **0.09** / 0.14 (ctl_unrelated_task_vector(antonym)|L14) | -0.05 [-0.18, +0.09]; pre-A1 control 0.14; shuffled-query diag. 0.09 |
| qwen3b->llama3b | morph | no (0.00) | procrustes|L2|a1.0 (0.00) | 0.00 / 0.28 / 0.00 / **0.00** / 0.00 (random_orth|L2|a1.0) | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| qwen3b->llama3b | addthree | yes (0.80) | procrustes|L2|a1.0 (0.00) | 0.00 / 1.00 / 0.69 / **0.00** / 0.00 (random_orth|L2|a1.0) | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00]; pre-A1 control 0.00; shuffled-query diag. 0.00 |
| **qwen3b->llama3b** | | | | | **H6 not supported (0 task(s))** |

Note: the CI of the selected-minus-control difference uses a conservative normal combination of the two paired gain-vs-zero bootstrap intervals (same items); per-item vectors are stored in results (outputs_sample) only partially.