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1# ma_trend / 123**Hypothesis.** Trends persist: when the average price of the last 3 days is above the average of the last 20 days,4the asset is in an up-trend that is more likely to continue than to stop, and being out of the market otherwise5avoids the large drawdowns of a long-only holder.67**Rule.** For each symbol: weight `1/N` if `mean(close[-72:]) > mean(close[-480:])`, otherwise 0 (USDC).89**What would refute it.** Whipsaws: in a range-bound market the two averages cross often and every crossing costs10fee + slippage on the whole position. The rule is always late (it enters after the rise began and leaves after11the fall began); if trends are short relative to the 20-day window it loses to buy-and-hold.12