spb/wp10_uqo Public

1% Author: Simon-Pierre Boucher — contact@spboucher.ai2% ============================================================================3% UQO Working Paper No. 104% The Assessment Gap in Quebec: Vertical and Horizontal Inequity in5% Municipal Property Valuation6%7% Build:  latexmk -pdf main.tex   (or `make` in this directory)8% Figures are read from ../figures/, tables from ../results/tables/.9% ============================================================================10\documentclass[12pt,letterpaper]{article}1112% ---------------------------------------------------------------- encoding13\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}14\usepackage[T1]{fontenc}15\usepackage[english]{babel}1617% ---------------------------------------------------------------- layout18\usepackage[letterpaper,margin=1in]{geometry}19\usepackage{setspace}20\onehalfspacing2122% ---------------------------------------------------------------- typography23\usepackage{mathptmx}24\usepackage{microtype}2526% ---------------------------------------------------------------- math27\usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,amsthm}2829% ---------------------------------------------------------------- tables30\usepackage{booktabs}31\usepackage{threeparttable}32\usepackage{makecell}3334% ---------------------------------------------------------------- figures35\usepackage{graphicx}36\usepackage{subcaption}37\graphicspath{{../figures/}{./}}3839% ---------------------------------------------------------------- captions40\usepackage[font=small,labelfont=bf,labelsep=period,justification=justified,singlelinecheck=false]{caption}4142% ---------------------------------------------------------------- colours & links43\usepackage[dvipsnames]{xcolor}44\usepackage[colorlinks=true,linkcolor=NavyBlue,citecolor=NavyBlue,urlcolor=NavyBlue,breaklinks=true]{hyperref}4546% ---------------------------------------------------------------- bibliography47\usepackage[authoryear,round,semicolon]{natbib}48\bibliographystyle{aer}4950% ---------------------------------------------------------------- headings & lists51\usepackage{titlesec}52\titleformat{\section}{\large\bfseries}{\thesection.}{0.5em}{}53\titleformat{\subsection}{\normalsize\bfseries}{\thesubsection.}{0.5em}{}54\titleformat{\subsubsection}{\normalsize\itshape}{\thesubsubsection.}{0.5em}{}55\usepackage{fancyhdr}56\pagestyle{fancy}\fancyhf{}57\renewcommand{\headrulewidth}{0pt}58\fancyfoot[C]{\thepage}59\usepackage{enumitem}60\setlist{nosep,leftmargin=*}6162% ============================================================================63% METADATA64% ============================================================================65\newcommand{\WPnumber}{10}66\newcommand{\WPtitle}{The Assessment Gap in Quebec}67\newcommand{\WPsubtitle}{Vertical and Horizontal Inequity in Municipal Property68  Valuation: Evidence from 522{,}769 Sales Matched to the Assessment Roll}69\newcommand{\WPdate}{August 2026}70\newcommand{\WPversion}{1.0}71\newcommand{\WPkeywords}{Property tax, Assessment, Vertical equity,72  Regressivity, Ratio study, Quebec}73\newcommand{\WPjel}{H71, H22, R51, R31}7475\newcommand{\WPauthor}{Simon-Pierre Boucher}76\newcommand{\WPaffiliation}{D\'epartement des sciences administratives\\77  Universit\'e du Qu\'ebec en Outaouais}78\newcommand{\WPemail}{simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca}79\newcommand{\WPaddress}{Gatineau -- Pavillon Alexandre-Tach\'e\\80  283, boulevard Alexandre-Tach\'e\\ Gatineau, Qu\'ebec, Canada J9A 1L8}8182\newcommand{\WPabstract}{%83Municipal property taxes are levied on assessed values, so any systematic84relationship between assessment accuracy and market value silently85redistributes the tax burden. Matching 522{,}769 residential transactions86from 2021--2026 to the triennial assessment rolls of 625 Quebec87municipalities at the parcel level, we provide the first province-wide88evaluation of vertical and horizontal equity in Canadian property assessment.89Assessment ratios decline steeply with price: within90municipality~$\times$~roll~$\times$~sale-year markets, the elasticity of the91assessment ratio with respect to the sale price is $-0.34$, and a rank-based92instrumental-variable estimator in the spirit of \mbox{Clapp (1990)}---which93purges the attenuation bias that pushes least-squares tests toward spurious94regressivity---still yields $-0.08$ ($t\approx4$). IAAO ratio-study95diagnostics place 95\% of municipalities below the acceptable price-related96bias band and 99\% above the COD uniformity ceiling; Montr\'eal is the only97large market whose assessments are progressive. Regressivity is strongest for98single-family homes, older buildings, properties with a high assessed land99share, and smaller municipalities, and it doubles in years when market prices100decouple from the rolls' reference dates, pointing to infrequent revaluation101as a first-order mechanism. The implied intra-municipal tax shift is large:102the median dwelling in the bottom within-market price decile pays roughly10365\% more property tax than it would under uniform assessment, while the top104decile pays about 5\% less.}105106\begin{document}107108\input{sections/titlepage}109110\setcounter{page}{1}111\input{sections/introduction}112\input{sections/literature}113\input{sections/institutional}114\input{sections/data}115\input{sections/methodology}116\input{sections/results}117\input{sections/robustness}118\input{sections/discussion}119\input{sections/conclusion}120121\newpage122\bibliography{references}123124\end{document}125