spb/wp11_uqo Public

1\begin{tabular}{lcccc c}2\toprule3Model & MdAPE (\%) & MAPE (\%) & RMSE$_{\ln}$ & $R^2_{\ln}$ & Fit (s) \\4\midrule5\multicolumn{6}{l}{\itshape A. Functional form}\\6\quad A1 Linear (levels) & 18.2 & 35.6 & 0.420 & 0.477 & 0 \\7\quad A2 Semi-log & 18.2 & 34.5 & 0.397 & 0.533 & 1 \\8\quad A3 Log-log & 17.0 & 32.7 & 0.381 & 0.569 & 1 \\9\quad A4 Box-Cox & 18.6 & 33.0 & 0.390 & 0.548 & 4 \\10\quad A5 Semi-log + quadratics & 18.1 & 34.6 & 0.397 & 0.533 & 1 \\11\quad A6 Semi-log + splines & \textbf{16.5} & 32.1 & 0.376 & 0.579 & 3 \\12\midrule13\multicolumn{6}{l}{\itshape B. Time effects}\\14\quad B1 No time effects & 21.1 & 38.4 & 0.423 & 0.468 & 0 \\15\quad B2 Year FE & 18.1 & 34.7 & 0.397 & 0.532 & 1 \\16\quad B3 Quarter FE & \textbf{18.1} & 34.6 & 0.397 & 0.533 & 1 \\17\quad B4 Month FE & 18.3 & 34.8 & 0.398 & 0.529 & 1 \\18\midrule19\multicolumn{6}{l}{\itshape C. Spatial controls}\\20\quad C1 No spatial controls & 27.9 & 48.4 & 0.494 & 0.274 & 0 \\21\quad C2 Municipality FE & 18.1 & 34.6 & 0.397 & 0.533 & 1 \\22\quad C3 Grid-cell FE ($\sim$5.5 km) & \textbf{17.5} & 34.0 & 0.392 & 0.544 & 1 \\23\quad C4 Grid-cell FE ($\sim$1.1 km) & 19.4 & 37.5 & 0.418 & 0.481 & 1 \\24\midrule25\multicolumn{6}{l}{\itshape D. Estimation method}\\26\quad D1 OLS (muni + month FE) & 18.3 & 34.8 & 0.398 & 0.529 & 1 \\27\quad D2 Ridge (cross-validated) & 16.7 & 32.3 & 0.378 & 0.577 & 11 \\28\quad D3 Random forest & 14.6 & 28.2 & 0.353 & 0.631 & 8 \\29\quad D4 Gradient boosting & \textbf{14.4} & 27.8 & 0.347 & 0.642 & 42 \\30\quad D5 Gradient boosting, no coordinates & 23.2 & 38.3 & 0.440 & 0.426 & 18 \\31\quad D6 Spatial k-NN comparables & 21.2 & 36.7 & 0.437 & 0.434 & 0 \\32\bottomrule33\end{tabular}