spb/wp11_uqo Public

1\begin{tabular}{lcccc c}2\toprule3Model & MdAPE (\%) & MAPE (\%) & RMSE$_{\ln}$ & $R^2_{\ln}$ & Fit (s) \\4\midrule5\multicolumn{6}{l}{\itshape A. Functional form}\\6\quad A1 Linear (levels) & 20.4 & 32.9 & 0.397 & 0.455 & 0 \\7\quad A2 Semi-log & 20.6 & 33.1 & 0.396 & 0.458 & 0 \\8\quad A3 Log-log & 19.2 & 30.7 & 0.376 & 0.513 & 1 \\9\quad A4 Box-Cox & 21.0 & 31.9 & 0.390 & 0.476 & 4 \\10\quad A5 Semi-log + quadratics & 20.5 & 32.1 & 0.388 & 0.479 & 1 \\11\quad A6 Semi-log + splines & \textbf{19.1} & 30.5 & 0.372 & 0.522 & 2 \\12\midrule13\multicolumn{6}{l}{\itshape B. Time effects}\\14\quad B1 No time effects & 25.4 & 33.2 & 0.418 & 0.397 & 0 \\15\quad B2 Year FE & 21.0 & 32.6 & 0.393 & 0.468 & 1 \\16\quad B3 Quarter FE & 20.5 & 32.1 & 0.388 & 0.479 & 1 \\17\quad B4 Month FE & \textbf{20.3} & 32.5 & 0.390 & 0.476 & 1 \\18\midrule19\multicolumn{6}{l}{\itshape C. Spatial controls}\\20\quad C1 No spatial controls & 26.5 & 41.1 & 0.457 & 0.279 & 0 \\21\quad C2 Municipality FE & \textbf{20.5} & 32.1 & 0.388 & 0.479 & 1 \\22\quad C3 Grid-cell FE ($\sim$5.5 km) & 21.3 & 32.7 & 0.394 & 0.465 & 1 \\23\quad C4 Grid-cell FE ($\sim$1.1 km) & 22.1 & 36.0 & 0.417 & 0.400 & 1 \\24\midrule25\multicolumn{6}{l}{\itshape D. Estimation method}\\26\quad D1 OLS (muni + month FE) & 20.3 & 32.5 & 0.390 & 0.476 & 1 \\27\quad D2 Ridge (cross-validated) & \textbf{19.5} & 30.6 & 0.375 & 0.515 & 9 \\28\quad D3 Random forest & 21.3 & 29.8 & 0.373 & 0.519 & 7 \\29\quad D4 Gradient boosting & 21.2 & 29.7 & 0.372 & 0.521 & 42 \\30\quad D5 Gradient boosting, no coordinates & 26.2 & 35.7 & 0.447 & 0.310 & 21 \\31\quad D6 Spatial k-NN comparables & 25.6 & 34.2 & 0.465 & 0.253 & 0 \\32\bottomrule33\end{tabular}