1#!/usr/bin/env python32"""Stage E (Agent 10) — build improvements/FIRC-0002/response_to_referees.md from review_items.json.34One row per review item (110): item id | referee | concern (from the item) | action (Stage D batch +5Stage E prose, by cluster, with per-item overrides) | where in v2.1 | if not done, why (from6unresolved_issues.md). The cluster → action texts are written by hand from implemented_changes.md and7unresolved_issues.md; the item fields are read from review_items.json. Numbers in this file are quoted8from the Stage D result files through implemented_changes.md; the manuscript itself uses macros.9"""10from __future__ import annotations1112import json13from pathlib import Path1415REVIEW = Path("/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/UQO-WP-REVIEW")16ITEMS = REVIEW / "peer_reviews/FIRC-0002/review_items.json"17OUT = REVIEW / "improvements/FIRC-0002/response_to_referees.md"1819CLUSTER_ACTION = {20 "A": ("Market capitalization rebuilt (L3, `r3k_10/12/13b/14`): unadjusted FinData close × point-in-time SEC cover-page shares on the same split basis, unit-error screen, cap screens; log cap range [−∞, 37.4] → [15.5, 29.0]; AAPL June 2011 9.3 bn (rank 166) → 310 bn (rank 2); firm-years without a cap 7.7 % → 1.1 %; 7.6 % of firm-years change size group; max single-firm VW weight 100 % → 36 % (10 %-capped VW variant added). Every size- or weight-dependent exhibit regenerated (T2, T5, T7, T8, T11, T12, T13, T19, event sub-samples) with the pre-review partition kept for comparison. Prose: §3.5 rewritten with the BEFORE → AFTER consequences; §5.1 VW narrative withdrawn; Appendix A1 'Size' corrected; coverage table (new) with no-cap counts by cohort.",21 "§3.5, §5.1, §5.5, Tables 2, 5, 11, 12, 19, A1; Table 3 (coverage)"),22 "B": ("Return hygiene and winsorization (L2, `r3k_13/14/15`): every monthly |return| > 300 % (48) and firm-year forward return > 500 % (104) verified against FinData daily bars; 14 series breaks set to missing (Table 'hygiene' lists each); panel keyed on (CIK, year), 52 duplicate rows dropped, listing-at-formation required; winsorization applied as stated and moved within formation year; every sort table shows raw | winsorized | median with the top-1 % contribution; every regression table raw and winsorized. Headline: EW composite spread +5.5 raw → +3.9 winsorized (NW t 2.00, plain 1.78, CI [−0.8, +8.6]), median +0.5; FM slope +3.07 (raw, stale) → +1.88/SD winsorized (t 2.41, CI [+0.27, +3.49]). Prose: §3.7 states the rule actually applied; abstract, §1, §5.1, §5.3 quote the winsorized values and call the premium regression-robust and sort-fragile.",23 "§3.5, §3.7, §5.1, §5.3, Tables 2, 5, 7, 9–14, 18, 19; Table 'hygiene'"),24 "C": ("Table 17 refit (L1, `r3k_11`; final from the rebuilt panel, `r3k_16` block P): explicit-terms formula, design rank 8/8, condition number 2.8, firm- and two-way-clustered t, N and R² printed; SPID × post −1.57 pp (t −1.72 firm / −0.88 two-way) on the committed panel, −1.93 (−1.93 / −0.96) on the rebuilt one; the committed `spid` and `double_sort_*` blocks are documented as stale relative to the committed code (`baseline_rerun_diff.txt`) and the producing commit is recorded in the README. Prose: §6.5 rewritten around binary contrasts with MDEs; the abstract says 'no detectable premium on this measure'.",25 "§6.5, Table 17 (`tab_did_spid`), Table 'spid_binary', abstract, §7"),26 "D": ("Survivorship diagnostics (L6, `r3k_18`): 17 archived IWV holdings files (2006, May 2019 → Aug 2025; none for 2010–2018), attrition by size tercile and snapshot (small tercile 61 % absent from the 2019 file vs 16 % large; annualised exit 11–16 % vs 2–3 %), then-members-present spreads for cohorts 2018–2024, EW-minus-index gaps (+5.7 pp/yr raw, +3.6 winsorized), size-demeaned, low-volatility and trimmed spreads, BGR-type bounding (Q1 would have to exit 5.7 pp/yr more than Q5 for a −50 % exit return), fixed-percentile size partition beside the top-1,000 cut, coverage table in the paper. Prose: new §6.8; §3.4 restricts 'look-ahead-free' to timing and states every level as conditional on survival to October 2026; abstract, §1, §7, §8 reworded accordingly; the 'seasoned' checks described as conditioning on entry only. NOT done: the point-in-time universe with scored filings of delisted firms and attrition by AI quintile (X1, new embedding pass not authorised; delisted firms have no scores) — stated in §6.8 and §7.3.",27 "§3.4, §6.8, §6.9, §7.3 (1), Table 3 (coverage), Table 'attrition', Fig. attrition"),28 "E": ("Inference overhaul (L4, `r3k_inference.py`): two-way (firm × cohort) clustering and Webb/Rademacher wild-cluster bootstraps (9,999 draws) for every pooled regression; n = 3 Newey–West t printed with n and never used to rank; plain t and the simulated fixed-b critical value (2.71) beside every NW t on annual series; 95 % t- and cohort-bootstrap intervals on every headline; the hi × post × large and hi × post × member contrasts with firm/two-way/wild inference, cohort-block bootstrap of the difference of post − pre spreads and MDEs (large: +10.8 pp, t 1.83 / 1.55, wild p 0.22, MDE 16.5); leave-one-out and ex-2024 rows for every size group. Pooled post Q5−Q1 t 1.95 → 1.10 two-way; within-sector FM t 4.38 (NW, raw) → 2.99 plain / 2.80 NW winsorized. Prose: §4.1 states the three inference rules; §5.4–5.5 and the abstract quote the two-way and wild statistics and say the contrast cannot reject equality; no n = 3 t in the abstract or introduction.",29 "§4.1, §4.6, §5.3–5.5, Tables 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17, 19; Table 'contrasts'"),30 "F": ("Event-study rebuild (L5, `r3k_17`): day 0 = 1 Dec 2022 with the [−20, −1] block reported separately (H−L −0.3 pp) and [−1, +1], [0, +5], [0, +20] added; dependence-robust CDA and BMP t for every sub-sample (largest 1,000 Welch 5.09 → CDA 3.02; remaining 1.55 → 1.51; non-S&P sub-sample printed); five benchmarks (beta-only 1.12, market-adjusted 1.22, 2021 window 2.09, size × momentum match 1.38, FF5+MOM calendar-time alpha +2.2 pp, t 0.52 for the largest 1,000); seven placebo launches (2022 ranks 1 of 8); one sentence reconciling the KP factor (0.131) with the portfolio statistic; Holm/BH over the event family. Prose: §4.6 and §6.3 rewritten with the benchmark dependence as the finding; the abstract and §1 no longer carry Welch statistics. NOT done: a B/M-matched benchmark (book equity not in the panel).",31 "§4.6, §6.3, Tables 15, 16, Fig. 7, Fig. placebo launches, §7.3 (5)"),32 "G": ("DiD/event-time and causal register (L7, `r3k_16`, `r3k_19`): main effect restored (2021 slope +5.9 pp/SD, t 5.95; post years −5.6 / −1.9 / +1.7 relative to 2021), trailing-exposure variant (−5.5 / −2.2 / +1.7), Figure 9 redrawn with 2021 = 0 and the look-back years marked, new Table 'eventtime' showing the author's coding next to the corrected one; parallel-trends failure stated; H4 recorded as NOT supported; H3 split into (a)/(b) with (b) failing on the TECH loading; H5 split into (a)/(b). Section 6 retitled without 'Identification'; 're-rated', 'repriced', 'rewarded', 'reallocation of expected cash flows', 'suppliers of the AI build-out' removed or marked descriptive; §7 opens by stating that no design identifies a causal effect.",33 "§2.7 (hypotheses), §4.5, §6.4, §7, §7.1 (verdicts table), Fig. 9, Table 'eventtime'"),34 "H": ("Within-sector, facets and forms (L7): the three within-sector estimators side by side with and without Energy (FM + dummies +0.88 winsorized, NW 2.80 / plain 2.74; sector × year FE +0.75, firm 2.04 / two-way 2.78 / wild 0.024; sector-neutral sort +1.4, t 1.61, raw +2.1; residual sort +1.7, t 1.54; the omitted −0.26 of the committed results is quoted as BEFORE); AI Risk and PC1 columns in every headline table with verdicts; equal-form and 10-K composites as rows; HAC Wald test of equal form slopes (winsorized p 0.02, raw p 0.23). Prose: §6.1 says the within-sector claim is a regression claim; §6.6 and §7 withdraw 'annual reports carry the strongest by a wide margin'; the abstract names no estimator as passing the HLZ hurdle.",35 "§3.2, §5.1–5.3, §6.1, §6.6, §7, Tables 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 18, 19"),36 "I": ("SPID (L8, `r3k_15/16/22`): binary any-AI / any-tech contrasts at cohort and firm level with CIs and MDEs (firm-level any-AI +2.8 pp, t 0.77, MDE 10.1; cohort MDE 12.7; any-tech +0.1, t 0.12), terciles among firms with projects, legacy quintile rows relabelled and kept for comparison only, SPID monthly LS relabelled 'legacy'; model (gpt-4o-mini), temperature, response format, run date and prompt in §3.3 and the new Appendix D; a 200-mention stratified sampling frame with source text delivered. Prose: 'no return premium' → 'no detectable premium on this sparse, unvalidated measure' everywhere. NOT done: human labels (readers pending), the LLM second rater (AR-3 not granted), the re-extraction agreement rate (X5) — stated in §7.3 (3) and Appendix D.",37 "§3.3, §6.5, §7, §7.3 (3), Appendix D, Table 'spid_binary', Table 17"),38 "J": ("Construct validity (N1 on M4M64a + L `r3k_23`): tokenizer audit (max_seq_length 256; 94.8 % of chunks truncated; ≈ 195 words read; 61 % of AI-term occurrences beyond the window; 0.18 vs 0.34 scores); keyword baseline (ρ 0.13 with the composite; 84 % of firm-years with no core term; 4.8 % of the top decile of chunks contain an AI term; spread +4.7, FM +0.61); Utilities 2nd-highest sector composite with zero keyword correlation, IDACORP/Hawaiian Electric ranks under each anchor set; stripped-anchor and core-AI composites scored against the stored embeddings (AR-2; ρ 0.98 / 0.80; spreads +4.1 / +4.8); ex-Utilities/Energy bound; negation probe (0.396 vs 0.578, both above the 99.8th percentile) → the §2.1 affirmation/negation claim withdrawn; validation frames (chunks and SPID mentions) with codebook delivered, uncoded. Prose: §3.1 documents the window; new §6.7; §7 'What the measure is'. NOT done: re-chunking, a second encoder, human coding (X2/X4; AR-3 not granted) — §7.3 (2)–(3).",39 "§2.1, §3.1, §3.2, §3.9, §6.7, §7, §7.3 (2)(3)(6), Appendix B, Table 'construct_validity'"),40 "K": ("Literature (L11, `r3k_21`): 17 DOI-resolved references appended plus the two working-paper self-entries; Eisfeldt et al. cited as JF 2026 (four authors; names re-resolved on Crossref 2026-11-05); Basu et al., Borri–Liu–Tsyvinski, Wu–Lam, Song, Erdogan et al., Wang et al., Celeny–Maréchal, Kearney et al., Hassan et al., Davis et al., Kim et al., Cao et al., Hong–Lim–Stein, Hampole et al., Bloom et al. (now DOI-verified) and Yilmazkuday cited in §2; positioning table (Table 1) and narrowed contribution sentence; anchor-to-exposure mapping in §2.3 and §7; AI-washing paragraph with the 24-month reversal test; cybersecurity paragraph with the correlation and cyber-neutral sort; the 'first' claim and the unsourced earnings-call sentence removed. NOT added: Xia et al. and Ofir (no identifier; Crossref candidates for the author).",41 "§1 (contribution), §2.1, §2.3, §2.5, §2.6, §7, Table 1, references.bib"),42 "L": ("Reproducibility package (L9): `run_all.sh` with per-step runtimes, `tests/test_regenerate.py` (schema/leakage/chronology checks; full regeneration diffed at 1e-6), `requirements.lock`, environment README, `manifest.sha256` (231 files), data README with provenance and licences, producing commit and price vintage in the README, one canonical share script, corpus counts exported from the database as macros. Prose: Appendix E rewritten with the v2.1 chain and a data-availability statement (deposit pending, FinData files access-restricted). NOT done: the deposit itself (author action).",43 "Appendix E, README, `reproducibility/FIRC-0002/validation_report.md`"),44 "M": ("Pre/post split (L4): both splits as Table 19 rows with pooled firm-clustered tests (split at 2021: pre +2.6 / post +7.5 winsorized, pooled diff +4.8, t 1.91 / 0.88 two-way); §6.10 corrected (moving the 2021 cohort raises, not lowers, the difference); post-launch share of 2022-cohort text (1.8 % of chunks) and the 2022 spread on pre-launch filings only (−5.2 vs −5.0); exact permutation over the 455 three-cohort subsets (p 0.31 winsorized, 0.28 raw) and the 12 contiguous blocks, sup-Wald with simulated p (0.59 / 0.43); Figure 11 kept as illustration and labelled so.",45 "§3.6, §5.4, §6.10, Tables 10, 18, 19, Fig. 11"),46 "N": ("Multiple testing (L4): family sizes stated; Holm, BH and Romano–Wolf step-down within the Table 5/9, Table 14, break-date, event and form families (new Table 'mht'); deflated Sharpe ratio (0.35 full, 0.29 post, 93 trials); 1,152-specification curve (84 % positive, 39 % positive and NW-significant, median +3.9 pp; new Figure); statistics meeting |t| > 3 counted (1 across the cohort families); 'the most significant of all' and the vacuous '12 of 12' sentence removed. Prose: §4.7 and new §5.6.",47 "§2.6, §4.7, §5.6, Table 'mht', Fig. specification curve"),48 "O": ("Verified errors and presentation (L10 + Stage E): one JSON field per statistic (−8.3/−8.4, +3.07/+3.12, +5.0/+5.1, 2.56/2.57 resolved); N and a notes block under every generated table; ex-top-500 pre cell computed; non-S&P event sub-sample printed; Table 16 labels and ticker case fixed; PDF metadata title, subject and keywords set; stale v1.1 tables moved to `docs/`; `results.tex:43` corrected (S&P alphas near t 2); duplicated EW–VW sentence removed; T6 caption 'annually selected, monthly rebalanced'; Table A1 kept on one page (`[H]`) with the long variable names broken; the five previously unreferenced equations now referenced; U8 sentences deleted or replaced by the specific finding; 'reappears almost exactly' replaced by the explicit v1.1 comparison; cleveref throughout. Title verb: author decision, alternative proposed in a `main.tex` comment.",49 "all sections; `main.tex`; Appendix A"),50}5152ITEM_OVERRIDE = {53 "FIRC0002-ADVE-14": "Every sentence listed (pp. 3, 4, 24, 28, 36, 38, 39) deleted or replaced by the specific finding it stood for; ordinary signposting kept.",54 "FIRC0002-ADVE-13": "Table 16 label and metadata fixed, stale tables moved, docstring corrected (L10); the v1.1 replication is now stated with the explicit comparison of the two panels rather than 'reappears almost exactly'.",55 "FIRC0002-EDIT-16": "Title verb: author decision; a descriptive alternative is proposed in a comment of `main.tex`; the limitations state that the verb is to be read descriptively.",56 "FIRC0002-LITE-03": "AI-washing strand cited (Erdogan et al.; Wang et al.) and the reversal test added (Table 'reversal'); Xia et al. and Ofir not added (no identifier given; Crossref candidates listed in `results/r3k_v2/bib_additions.json` for the author).",57 "FIRC0002-LITE-07": "Hong–Lim–Stein cited in §2.4; the coverage split not run (no analyst-coverage data in the package) — listed as future work.",58 "FIRC0002-EDIT-14": "Hassan et al. and Cao et al. cited; Bloom et al. (Kalyani et al., NBER w28999) DOI-verified by `r3k_21` and now cited.",59 "FIRC0002-THEO-06": "Fixed within-cohort percentile partition (largest 42 %) reported beside the top-1,000 cut with N by cohort (coverage table); the inflation-adjusted Russell 1000 dollar cut-offs not implemented (breakpoints not verified from a public source) — §7.3 (7).",60 "FIRC0002-THEO-12": "Analyst-coverage / 13F split not run (no data on hand); causal register corrected throughout.",61}6263PARTIAL_REASON = {64 "D": "the point-in-time universe with scored filings of delisted firms needs a new embedding pass (X1, not authorised); diagnostics, bounds and then-members spreads executed instead",65 "F": "the KP-deflated t is reported and reconciled, not used as the headline; B/M match not possible without book equity",66 "H": "alternative anchors were scored against the stored embeddings (AR-2); no corpus re-embedding",67 "I": "the re-extraction agreement rate needs new LLM calls (X5); provenance appendix delivered without it",68 "J": "re-chunking, a second encoder and the negation probe by model inference need a new embedding pass; the stored-embedding probe, tokenizer audit, keyword baseline and uncoded frames were executed; the LLM second rater (AR-3) was not granted",69 "K": "Bloom et al. is now DOI-verified and cited; the coverage split has no data",70 "O": "U8 list handled by the writing editor; ordinary signposting kept",71}727374def main() -> None:75 d = json.load(open(ITEMS))76 items = d["items"]77 rows = []78 for it in items:79 c = it.get("cluster", "?")80 action, where = CLUSTER_ACTION.get(c, ("", ""))81 if it["id"] in ITEM_OVERRIDE:82 action = ITEM_OVERRIDE[it["id"]] + " [cluster " + c + ": " + action.split(" Prose:")[0][:220] + "…]"83 notdone = ""84 if it.get("status") == "partially accepted":85 notdone = "Partially accepted — " + PARTIAL_REASON.get(c, "see unresolved_issues.md")86 if it.get("requires_new_llm_calls"):87 notdone += "; requires new embedding / LLM calls (author decision pending)"88 concern = it["issue"].replace("|", "\\|").replace("\n", " ")89 if len(concern) > 320:90 concern = concern[:317].rstrip() + "…"91 anchor = it["anchor"].replace("|", "\\|")[:110]92 rows.append(f"| {it['id']} | {it['referee']} ({it['severity']}) | {concern} (anchor: {anchor}) | {action.replace('|', '\\|')} | {where} | {notdone} |")9394 head = f"""# Response to referees — FIRC-0002 (version 2.0 → 2.1)9596Prepared at Stage E (Agent 10, writing editor, 2026-11-05) from `peer_reviews/FIRC-0002/review_items.json` (110 items, seven blinded reports), `consolidated_review.md` (cluster dispositions A–O), `improvements/FIRC-0002/implemented_changes.md` (Stage D batches L0–L11 and N1) and `unresolved_issues.md`. Generated by `scripts/stageE_response_table.py` in the worktree; the action and location columns are written per cluster (every item of a cluster received the cluster's treatment) with per-item overrides where an item was handled individually. Section numbers refer to version 2.1 (§2.7 hypotheses; §3.1 corpus and encoder window; §3.3 SPID; §3.4 universe; §3.5 prices and capitalization; §3.6 timing; §3.7 winsorization; §4.1 sorts and inference; §4.5 break/DiD; §4.6 contrasts; §4.7 multiple testing; §4.8 event study; §5.1 sorts; §5.2 alphas; §5.3 FM/panel; §5.4 post-ChatGPT; §5.5 size; §5.6 multiple testing; §6.1 sector; §6.2 placebo; §6.3 event study; §6.4 DiD; §6.5 projects; §6.6 forms; §6.7 construct validity; §6.8 survivorship; §6.9 other checks; §6.10 break definition; §7 discussion, §7.1 verdicts, §7.3 limitations; Appendix A variables, B anchors, C corpus, D SPID extractor, E data and reproducibility).9798**Summary of what changed.** Every one of the 110 items was accepted or partially accepted by the Chief Editor; none was rejected. Stage D executed the laptop batches L0–L11 and the node batch N1 on the committed derived data without re-embedding the corpus or re-running the LLM extraction (binding constraint). The three pillars of the thesis survive in weakened wording (Rule 2 / AR-FIRC0002-1 not triggered on its literal criteria; the event-study leg of pillar (ii) does not survive the benchmark change and is reported as benchmark-dependent): (i) a modest AI-language premium, regression-robust (winsorized FM +1.88 pp/SD, t 2.41, CI [+0.27, +3.49]) and sort-fragile (winsorized EW Q5−Q1 +3.9 pp, NW t 2.00, plain 1.78, CI [−0.8, +8.6]; median +0.5), conditional on survival to October 2026; (ii) a post-launch increase visible only among the largest 1,000 firms and in the 2024 cohort, with an insignificant formal contrast (+10.8 pp, t 1.83 firm / 1.55 two-way, wild p 0.22, MDE 16.5) and an event-study gradient present under the 2022 market model (CDA 3.02) and absent under beta-only / market-adjusted / matched / FF benchmarks (1.12 / 1.22 / 1.38 / 0.52); (iii) no detectable premium on a sparse, unvalidated project measure (MDE 10.1–12.7 pp). The abstract (≤ 150 words), introduction, discussion and conclusion were rewritten to these three statements; no n = 3 Newey–West statistic appears in the abstract or introduction; every number in the manuscript is a macro from a result file.99100**What was not done, and why** (also in §7.3 of the manuscript and in `unresolved_issues.md`): X1 point-in-time universe with scored filings of delisted firms and attrition by AI quintile (new embedding pass, not authorised; delisted firms have no scores); X2/X4 re-chunking to the encoder's window and a second encoder (new embedding pass); X5 SPID re-extraction agreement rate (new LLM calls); human labels for the chunk and SPID validation frames (readers pending) and the LLM second rater (AR-FIRC0002-3 not granted) — no label of either kind exists and none is reported; IWV holdings for June 2010–2018 (no archived capture exists; attrition covers 2019–2025 plus 2006); the Russell 1000 dollar cut-off partition (breakpoints not verified from a public source); the B/M-matched event benchmark (book equity not in the panel); the analyst-coverage split (no data); Xia et al. and Ofir (no identifier); the data deposit and the title verb (author decisions).101102## Item-by-item table103104| Item | Referee (severity) | Concern | Action taken | Where (v2.1) | If not done, why |105|---|---|---|---|---|---|106"""107 OUT.write_text(head + "\n".join(rows) + "\n\n## Register of unexecuted items\n\n| Item / package | What | Why not executed | Where stated |\n|---|---|---|---|\n"108 "| X1 | Point-in-time universe, scored filings of delisted firms, attrition by AI quintile | New embedding pass; delisted firms have no AI scores | §3.4, §6.8, §7.3 (1), Table 'attrition' notes |\n"109 "| X2 / X4 | Re-chunking to the encoder window; second encoder | New embedding pass | §3.1, §7.3 (2) |\n"110 "| X3 | Negation probe by model inference on the corpus | New embedding pass; a stored-embedding sentence probe was run instead (AR-2) | §2.1, §6.7 |\n"111 "| X5 / ADVE-16 | SPID re-extraction agreement rate | New LLM calls | Appendix D, §7.3 (3) |\n"112 "| AR-FIRC0002-3 | LLM second rater on the validation frames | Not granted | Appendix D, §7.3 (3) |\n"113 "| Human labels | Coding of the chunk frame (1,700 chunks) and the SPID frame (200 mentions) | Readers pending | §6.7, Appendix D, §7.3 (3) |\n"114 "| IWV 2010–2018 | Point-in-time holdings before May 2019 | No archived capture; N-Q schedules outside the acquisition budget | §6.8 |\n"115 "| THEO-06 | Russell 1000 dollar cut-off partition | Breakpoints not verified from a public source | §7.3 (7) |\n"116 "| ECON-08 (B/M) | Size × B/M × momentum matched benchmark | Book equity not in the panel | §4.8, §7.3 (5) |\n"117 "| LITE-07 / THEO-12 | Analyst-coverage / 13F split | No coverage data on hand | §2.4 |\n"118 "| LITE-03 | Xia et al.; Ofir | No identifier; Crossref candidates for the author | `results/r3k_v2/bib_additions.json` |\n"119 "| L9 | Data deposit (≈ 420 MB) | Author action (spbgit release or archive by hash) | Appendix E, README |\n"120 "| Title | Verb 'Move' | Author decision; alternative in a `main.tex` comment | `main.tex` |\n")121 print(f"wrote {OUT} with {len(rows)} rows")122123124if __name__ == "__main__":125 main()126