spb/wp17_uqo

1% Generated by scripts/r3k_19_figures_v2.py -- do not edit by hand (FIRC-0002 v2.1, Stage E exhibits). Figure file: figures/r3k_v2/fig11_placebo_breaks.pdf (copy in paper/figures_r3k/).2% \input{figures_r3k/fig11_placebo_breaks} on its own places the float with its caption; inside an existing figure wrapper only the graphic is printed.3\ExhibitFigure{fig:placebobreaks}{\textbf{Placebo break dates and contiguous-block comparison, AI composite, Russell~3000.} Left: difference between the mean winsorized Q5$-$Q1 spread of the cohorts from the candidate break year onward and the mean of the earlier cohorts, for every candidate between 2013 and 2022; candidates with few post cohorts have larger sampling variance, so the ranking is descriptive (bootstrap and Romano--Wolf $p$-values in Table~\ref{tab:mhtfullb}). Right: mean spread of each contiguous three-cohort block minus the mean of the remaining cohorts; the 2022--24 block is exceeded by 2 of the 12 blocks and by a share 0.31 of all 455 three-cohort subsets (exact permutation; Table~\ref{tab:cohorts}).}{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{fig11_placebo_breaks.pdf}}4