spb/wp17_uqo

1% Generated by scripts/r3k_19_figures_v2.py -- do not edit by hand (FIRC-0002 v2.1, Stage E exhibits). Figure file: figures/r3k_v2/fig3_cohort_spreads.pdf (copy in paper/figures_r3k/).2% \input{figures_r3k/fig3_cohort_spreads} on its own places the float with its caption; inside an existing figure wrapper only the graphic is printed.3\ExhibitFigure{fig:cohorts}{\textbf{Annual AI-composite spreads by formation cohort, Russell~3000.} Equal-weighted Q5$-$Q1 forward-return spread of the AI composite for each formation cohort, on the raw return, the return winsorized at 1/99 within the formation year, and as the median difference. The dashed line and the shaded band are the mean and the 95\% $t$-interval of the twelve pre-launch winsorized spreads (+3.4 pp, [-1.6, +8.4]); the dotted vertical line separates the cohorts held before and after the ChatGPT launch. The post-launch cohorts are 2022: -5.0, 2023: +3.1, 2024: +19.9 pp (wins.); tests of a 2022 break are in Table~\ref{tab:cohorts}.}{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{fig3_cohort_spreads.pdf}}4