spb/wp17_uqo

1% Generated by scripts/r3k_20_tables_v2.py from results/r3k_v2/results.json (contrasts) -- do not edit by hand (FIRC-0002 v2.1, Stage E exhibits).2% Placement decided at Stage E: main. \input{tables/tab_contrasts} on its own prints the whole float; inside an existing float wrapper only the body is printed.3\ExhibitTable{tab:contrasts}{\textbf{Formal tests of the large-versus-small and member-versus-non-member post-launch differences.} Panel A: pooled regressions of the forward return of Q1 and Q5 firm-years on a top-quintile indicator (hi), a post-launch dummy, the group indicator and all interactions, with cohort fixed effects. The triple interaction is the post-launch change of the spread in the group relative to the reference group. $t$-statistics in brackets from firm-clustered and two-way (firm $\times$ cohort) standard errors; 95\% CI from the firm-clustered SE; wild $p$ from the restricted wild-cluster bootstrap by cohort (Rademacher / Webb weights, 9,999 draws, 15 clusters); MDE = minimum detectable effect at 80\% power (2.8 $\times$ firm-clustered SE). Panel B: the difference of the post $-$ pre changes of the cohort-level spreads with a 95\% cohort-bootstrap interval (12 pre and 3 post cohorts resampled, 9,999 draws).}{\scriptsize}{%4\begin{threeparttable}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}5\begin{tabular}{llrrrrrr}6\toprule7Term & Returns & \makecell[b]{Coefficient \\ {(pp)}} & [$t$ firm] & [$t$ firm$\times$cohort] & 95\% CI & \makecell[b]{wild $p$ \\ {(Rad.\ / Webb)}} & MDE (pp) \\8\midrule9\multicolumn{8}{@{}l}{\textit{Panel A: pooled firm-level interactions (Q1/Q5 firm-years, cohort fixed effects)}} \\10hi $\times$ post (reference group) & wins. & -1.23 & [-0.25] & [-0.12] & [-11.0, +8.5] & -- / -- & 13.9 \\11hi $\times$ group (pre-launch) & wins. & -4.06 & [-1.84] & [-0.99] & [-8.4, +0.3] & -- / -- & 6.2 \\12hi $\times$ post $\times$ largest-1,000 & wins. & +10.79 & [1.83] & [1.55] & [-0.8, +22.4] & 0.226 / 0.225 & 16.5 \\13\quad $N$ = 10{,}826 & & & & & & & \\14\addlinespace15hi $\times$ post (reference group) & raw & -0.28 & [-0.03] & [-0.02] & [-17.6, +17.0] & -- / -- & 24.7 \\16hi $\times$ group (pre-launch) & raw & -8.99 & [-2.44] & [-1.40] & [-16.2, -1.8] & -- / -- & 10.3 \\17hi $\times$ post $\times$ largest-1,000 & raw & +10.81 & [1.14] & [0.82] & [-7.8, +29.4] & 0.492 / 0.495 & 26.6 \\18\quad $N$ = 10{,}826 & & & & & & & \\19\addlinespace20hi $\times$ post (reference group) & wins. & +1.57 & [0.43] & [0.20] & [-5.5, +8.7] & -- / -- & 10.1 \\21hi $\times$ group (pre-launch) & wins. & +0.87 & [0.49] & [0.41] & [-2.6, +4.3] & -- / -- & 4.9 \\22hi $\times$ post $\times$ S\&P member & wins. & +8.57 & [1.39] & [1.07] & [-3.5, +20.7] & 0.319 / 0.345 & 17.3 \\23\quad $N$ = 10{,}949 & & & & & & & \\24\addlinespace25hi $\times$ post (reference group) & raw & +2.77 & [0.46] & [0.29] & [-9.0, +14.6] & -- / -- & 16.9 \\26hi $\times$ group (pre-launch) & raw & -1.21 & [-0.50] & [-0.42] & [-5.9, +3.5] & -- / -- & 6.7 \\27hi $\times$ post $\times$ S\&P member & raw & +8.53 & [1.03] & [0.67] & [-7.7, +24.8] & 0.508 / 0.530 & 23.2 \\28\quad $N$ = 10{,}949 & & & & & & & \\29\addlinespace30\midrule31\multicolumn{8}{@{}l}{\textit{Panel B: difference of cohort-level post $-$ pre changes, cohort bootstrap}} \\32\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{0.3\textwidth}}{(post $-$ pre)$_{\text{largest 1,000}}$ $-$ (post $-$ pre)$_{\text{remaining}}$} & wins. & +9.96 & & & [-4.0, +22.0] & & \\33\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{0.3\textwidth}}{same, raw returns} & raw & +11.40 & & & [-14.9, +31.7] & & \\34\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{0.3\textwidth}}{(post $-$ pre)$_{\text{S\&P}}$ $-$ (post $-$ pre)$_{\text{non-members}}$} & wins. & +9.08 & & & [-13.2, +24.1] & & \\35\bottomrule36\end{tabular}37\begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]\scriptsize38\item \emph{Notes:} Economic reading: the point estimate of the large-cap post-launch increase relative to small caps is +10.8 pp per year, but its MDE is 16.5 pp and the wild-bootstrap $p$ is 0.22, so the difference between the two size groups is not statistically established; the cohort-bootstrap interval in Panel B covers zero. The S\&P-member contrast is weaker still. Returns winsorized within the formation year unless marked raw. Source: results/r3k\_v2/results.json (contrasts).39\end{tablenotes}40\end{threeparttable}}41