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"low_fwd_vol_w": {1106      "full": {1107        "mean": 0.0245,1108        "t": 2.09,1109        "t_plain": 1.27,1110        "ci95": [1111          -0.0168,1112          0.06581113        ],1114        "n": 15,1115        "by_cohort": {1116          "2010": -0.0278,1117          "2011": 0.0143,1118          "2012": 0.0795,1119          "2013": -0.0264,1120          "2014": 0.0012,1121          "2015": -0.0247,1122          "2016": 0.0626,1123          "2017": 0.0817,1124          "2018": 0.1556,1125          "2019": -0.0708,1126          "2020": -0.0466,1127          "2021": 0.1747,1128          "2022": 0.059,1129          "2023": -0.0394,1130          "2024": -0.02581131        }1132      },1133      "pre": {1134        "mean": 0.0311,1135        "t": 2.16,1136        "t_plain": 1.36,1137        "ci95": [1138          -0.0194,1139          0.08161140        ],1141        "n": 12,1142        "by_cohort": {1143          "2010": -0.0278,1144          "2011": 0.0143,1145          "2012": 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-0.0282,1188          "2014": 0.0836,1189          "2015": 0.0561,1190          "2016": -0.011,1191          "2017": 0.1155,1192          "2018": 0.2454,1193          "2019": 0.0363,1194          "2020": -0.0364,1195          "2021": 0.0854,1196          "2022": -0.1545,1197          "2023": 0.0518,1198          "2024": 0.16581199        }1200      }1201    },1202    "below_p99_raw": {1203      "full": {1204        "mean": 0.0297,1205        "t": 1.75,1206        "t_plain": 1.55,1207        "ci95": [1208          -0.0113,1209          0.07061210        ],1211        "n": 15,1212        "by_cohort": {1213          "2010": -0.0739,1214          "2011": -0.0001,1215          "2012": 0.0625,1216          "2013": -0.0369,1217          "2014": 0.0047,1218          "2015": -0.0014,1219          "2016": 0.0602,1220          "2017": 0.0611,1221          "2018": 0.1794,1222          "2019": 0.0158,1223          "2020": -0.0563,1224          "2021": 0.1088,1225          "2022": -0.0456,1226          "2023": 0.0193,1227          "2024": 0.14751228        }1229      },1230      "pre": {1231        "mean": 0.027,1232        "t": 1.41,1233        "t_plain": 1.3,1234        "ci95": [1235          -0.0187,1236          0.07271237        ],1238        "n": 12,1239        "by_cohort": {1240          "2010": -0.0739,1241          "2011": -0.0001,1242          "2012": 0.0625,1243          "2013": -0.0369,1244          "2014": 0.0047,1245          "2015": -0.0014,1246          "2016": 0.0602,1247          "2017": 0.0611,1248          "2018": 0.1794,1249          "2019": 0.0158,1250          "2020": -0.0563,1251          "2021": 0.10881252        }1253      },1254      "post": {1255        "mean": 0.0404,1256        "t": 1.02,1257        "t_plain": 0.71,1258        "ci95": [1259          -0.2038,1260          0.28461261        ],1262        "n": 3,1263        "by_cohort": {1264          "2022": -0.0456,1265          "2023": 0.0193,1266          "2024": 0.14751267        }1268      }1269    },1270    "fwd_vol_gradient": {1271      "full": {1272        "mean": 0.046,1273        "t": 5.85,1274        "t_plain": 6.38,1275        "ci95": [1276          0.0305,1277          0.06141278        ],1279        "n": 15,1280        "by_cohort": {1281          "2010": 0.0631,1282          "2011": 0.0517,1283          "2012": 0.0725,1284          "2013": 0.0419,1285          "2014": 0.0613,1286          "2015": 0.0148,1287          "2016": 0.0352,1288          "2017": 0.045,1289          "2018": 0.0046,1290          "2019": 0.0509,1291          "2020": 0.0282,1292          "2021": 0.0219,1293          "2022": 0.0168,1294          "2023": 0.0682,1295          "2024": 0.11351296        }1297      },1298      "pre": {1299        "mean": 0.0409,1300        "t": 5.8,1301        "t_plain": 6.86,1302        "ci95": [1303          0.0278,1304          0.0541305        ],1306        "n": 12,1307        "by_cohort": {1308          "2010": 0.0631,1309          "2011": 0.0517,1310          "2012": 0.0725,1311          "2013": 0.0419,1312          "2014": 0.0613,1313          "2015": 0.0148,1314          "2016": 0.0352,1315          "2017": 0.045,1316          "2018": 0.0046,1317          "2019": 0.0509,1318          "2020": 0.0282,1319          "2021": 0.02191320        }1321      },1322      "post": {1323        "mean": 0.0661,1324        "t": 3.35,1325        "t_plain": 2.37,1326        "ci95": [1327          -0.054,1328          0.18631329        ],1330        "n": 3,1331        "by_cohort": {1332          "2022": 0.0168,1333          "2023": 0.0682,1334          "2024": 0.11351335        }1336      }1337    }1338  },1339  "bounding": {1340    "observed_full_spread_w": 0.0391,1341    "mean_survivor_fwd_w": 0.1851,1342    "fwd_vol_gradient_Q5_minus_Q1": 0.046,1343    "logic": "if exiting firms earn r_x and are dropped, the survivor spread overstates the true spread by (e1 - e5) x (mean_surv - r_x) where e_q is the one-year exit rate of quintile q; the table gives the exit-rate DIFFERENCE e1 - e5 (negative = Q5 exits more) that would generate the whole observed spread, to compare with the measured annualised exit rates by size tercile (2019-2024 snapshots)",1344    "required_exit_rate_difference_e1_minus_e5": {1345      "r_x=-0.3": 0.0806,1346      "r_x=-0.5": 0.0571,1347      "r_x=-0.7": 0.0442,1348      "r_x=-1.0": 0.0331349    },1350    "measured_annualised_exit_small_tercile": {1351      "20060929": 0.0762,1352      "20190531": 0.1406,1353      "20191129": 0.1395,1354      "20191220": 0.1423,1355      "20201231": 0.1444,1356      "20211231": 0.1295,1357      "20221230": 0.1103,1358      "20230630": 0.1127,1359      "20230718": 0.1158,1360      "20230911": 0.118,1361      "20230921": 0.1171,1362      "20231229": 0.1347,1363      "20240202": 0.1426,1364      "20240404": 0.1564,1365      "20240430": 0.1607,1366      "20241206": 0.16131367    },1368    "measured_annualised_exit_large_tercile": {1369      "20060929": 0.0332,1370      "20190531": 0.0281,1371      "20191129": 0.0276,1372      "20191220": 0.0266,1373      "20201231": 0.0245,1374      "20211231": 0.0231,1375      "20221230": 0.0198,1376      "20230630": 0.0214,1377      "20230718": 0.0203,1378      "20230911": 0.0218,1379      "20230921": 0.0209,1380      "20231229": 0.0195,1381      "20240202": 0.0214,1382      "20240404": 0.0192,1383      "20240430": 0.0211,1384      "20241206": 0.02611385    },1386    "max_measured_small_minus_large_exit_rate": 0.13961387  },1388  "entry_side": {1389    "share_entrants_by_cohort": {1390      "2010": 0.039,1391      "2011": 0.058,1392      "2012": 0.091,1393      "2013": 0.127,1394      "2014": 0.171,1395      "2015": 0.206,1396      "2016": 0.23,1397      "2017": 0.256,1398      "2018": 0.285,1399      "2019": 0.313,1400      "2020": 0.351,1401      "2021": 0.396,1402      "2022": 0.406,1403      "2023": 0.415,1404      "2024": 0.4261405    },1406    "entrant_minus_seasoned_fwd_w_pp": 5.921407  },1408  "runtime_s": 11409}
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