1# RECORD 56494cbdae8af81697e839076186a1ac0cd073742# TITLE: The impact of crimes on house prices in LA County3# YEAR: 2022.0 VENUE: Journal of European Real Estate Research DOI: 10.1108/jerer-01-2021-00024# AUTHORS: Paloma Taltavull de La Paz; J. Berry; David McIlhatton; David Chapman; Katja Bergonzoli5# PAGES: 30 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): []6# ABSTRACT: PurposeThis paper focusses on analysing the impact of crime on the housing market in Los Angeles (LA) County. By looking at different types of crime instead of general crime measures and controlling by spatial dimension of prices and crime as well as endogeneity, a model is developed that allows for the understanding of how a specific crime impacts the housing market transaction price. To perform the analysis, the paper merges different data sets (crime, housing transaction and census data) and then computes the distances to crucial transport modes to control the accessibility features affecting housing prices. The latter allows estimating the association of housing prices and crime in the distance and estimating the impact on housing depending on it.Design/methodology/approachThis paper focusses on the following crimes: aggravated assault, burglary (property crime), narcotics, non-aggravated assault and vandalism. The paper shows firstly how incidents of reported crime are distributed across space and how they are related to each other – thus highlighting crime models with spatial influences. Secondly, the research utilises instrumental variables within the methodology to estimate house prices using spatial analysis techniques while controlling for endogeneity. Thirdly, it estimates the direct impact of crime on house prices and explores the impact of housing and neighbourhood features.FindingsResults suggest that house transaction prices and crime are closely correlated in two senses. Housing prices are endogenously negatively associated with the levels of narcotics and aggravated assaults. For narcotics, the impact of distance is shorter (1,000 m). However, for burglary, vandalism and non-aggravated assaults, the price reaction suggests a positive association: the further away the crime occurs, the higher the prices. The paper also shows the large spatial association of different crimes suggesting that they occur together and that their accumulation would make negative externalities appear affecting the whole neighbourhood.Research limitations/implicationsThe use of a huge database allows interesting findings, but one limitation can be to not have longer time observations to identify the crime evolution and its impact on housing prices.Practical implicationsLarge implications as the relationship identified in this paper allow defining precise policies to avoid crime in different areas in LA. In addition, crime has significant but quantitative small effe789===== PAGE 1 (score 4, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 4) =====1011 12 13 14The impact of crimes on house 15prices in LA County 16 17de La Paz, P. T., Berry, J., McIlhatton, D., Chapman, D. & 18Bergonzoli, K. 19 20Author post-print (accepted) deposited by Coventry University’s Repository 21 22Original citation & hyperlink: 23de La Paz, PT, Berry, J, McIlhatton, D, Chapman, D & Bergonzoli, K 2022, 'The impact 24of crimes on house prices in LA County', Journal of European Real Estate Research, 25vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 88-111. 26https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jerer-01-2021-0002 27 28DOI 2910.1108/jerer-01-2021-0002 30ISSN 311753-9269 32 33Publisher: Emerald 34 35Copyright © and Moral Rights are retained by the author(s) and/ or other copyright 36owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, 37without prior permission or charge. This item cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively 38from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). The 39content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium 40without the formal permission of the copyright holders. 41 42This document is the author’s post-print version, incorporating any revisions agreed during 43the peer-review process. Some differences between the published version and this version 44may remain and you are advised to consult the published version if you wish to cite from 45it. 46 47