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WP22 v1.0: Monte Carlo, revisions, benchmarks, full manuscript (49 p.)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Simon-Pierre Boucher committed 1 h ago (Oct 21, 2026) parent a232dc8

34 changed files +3,052 −120

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@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
3 3
4 4 **UQO Working Paper No. 22** — *Monthly municipal indices for Quebec from 770,000 registered sales, 2021–2026*
5 5
6 −[![Paper](https://img.shields.io/badge/paper-PDF-b31b1b?logo=latex&logoColor=white)](paper/main.pdf)
6 +[![Paper](https://img.shields.io/badge/paper-PDF%20(49%20p.)-b31b1b?logo=latex&logoColor=white)](paper/main.pdf)
7 7 [![Python](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.14-3776AB?logo=python&logoColor=white)](requirements.txt)
8 8 [![Data](https://img.shields.io/badge/data-769%2C995%20registered%20sales%20·%20SQLite%20snapshot-4051b5)](data/raw/README.md)
9 9 [![Reproducible](https://img.shields.io/badge/reproducible-end--to--end%20pipeline-2e7d32)](scripts/)
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@
19 19 | Item | Value |
20 20 |---|---|
21 21 | Version | 1.0 (October 2026) |
22 −| SSRN | not yet submitted |
22 +| SSRN | [7651200](https://ssrn.com/abstract=7651200) — submitted 2026-10-21 (PRELIMINARY_UPLOAD) |
23 23 | Journal | — |
24 24 | Code & data | reproducible from `scripts/` (see Quick start); raw microdata not redistributed |
25 25
@@ -36,7 +36,18 @@ Every ingredient exists in the literature (Francke & van de Minne 2017; Ishaak,
36 36
37 37 ## 🏆 Headline results
38 38
39 −See `paper/tables/numbers.tex` (every number in the manuscript is a generated macro). Key outputs: `data/processed/index_panel.parquet|csv` (schema of protocol §17), `results/panel/reliability_cells.csv`, `results/simulation/summary.csv`, `results/vintages/revisions_by_release.csv`, `results/validation/*.csv`.
39 +| Object | Estimate |
40 +|---|---|
41 +| Provincial index, Sept. 2026 (2021 avg = 100): houses / condos / plexes | 154.9 / 136.4 / 151.2 |
42 +| Municipal house index, Sept. 2026, grades A–C: P10 / median / P90 | 133 / 153 / 174 |
43 +| Monte Carlo (baseline, municipalities): RMSE of monthly log change ×100 — SHARP / per-cell state space (QHPI) / cell time dummy / median | 1.58 / 2.91 / 12.52 / 24.28 |
44 +| Monte Carlo coverage of 95 % intervals, municipalities: SHARP / without EB calibration | 98 % / 97 % |
45 +| Counter-examples | heavy tails: municipal-level location FE wins (2.84 vs 4.62); regional level: QHPI direct local TD wins (1.17 vs 1.40) |
46 +| Composition shock (drop smallest 40 % of houses from 2024, Montréal region): median / TD / SHARP shift | +23.4 / -0.5 / +0.3 log pts |
47 +| First-release revision of monthly change (houses): province / municipalities (full re-estimation) / municipalities (frozen) | 0.16 / 1.72 / 2.31 log pts |
48 +| External: Québec CMQ houses 2021→2026 SHARP / CREA single-family / Teranet | 47.9 / 45.5 / 43.7 log pts |
49 +
50 +Every number in the manuscript is a generated macro (`paper/tables/numbers.tex`). Key outputs: `data/processed/index_panel.parquet|csv` (schema of protocol §17), `results/panel/reliability_cells.csv`, `results/simulation/summary.csv`, `results/vintages/revisions_by_release*.csv`, `results/validation/*.csv`.
40 51
41 52 ## 🗂 Repository layout
42 53
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14 14 | 01:25 | 6 | Real-time vintages (July 2022 → October 2026, 10-day delay) launched; validation: aggregation, composition shock, placebo, Moran, repeat sales, bootstrap, ablations, trimming |
15 15 | 01:30 | 6 | External indices (Teranet, CREA, StatCan) obtained by agent; comparison on annual means; Montréal gap diagnosed (type composition, richer CREA attributes); Québec City agreement |
16 16 | 01:40 | 7 | Manuscript sections 1–6, 8, 10–11 and appendices drafted; figure and table generators; tests (9 passing) |
17 +| 14:00–16:30 | 4–7 | Laptop slept 01:38→13:43 (battery); Monte Carlo resumed and completed (720 reps); vintages regenerated with filtered + smoothed modes; benchmarks and HMTS completed; sections 7 and 9 written; 49-page manuscript compiles with 0 missing macros |
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1 1 \newcommand{\WPabstract}{%
2 −This paper develops and evaluates SHARP-HPI, a framework for monthly quality-adjusted housing price indices at the municipal level in thin markets. Stage one is a robust pooled hedonic regression with fine-scale location fixed effects, smoothly time-varying quality prices and provincial month effects; stage two models each geography's deviation from its parent (province, administrative region, regional county municipality, municipality) with heteroskedastic local-level state-space models whose innovation variances are calibrated by empirical Bayes across cells, so that the weight given to local sales adapts to their reliability. We apply it to \NRawTx{} registered sales in Quebec from January 2021 to October 2026 matched to the assessment roll, with an audited population definition (\NHeadline{} sales), a measured publication lag and real-time vintages. Against eleven benchmark estimators (median, stratified median, pooled and rolling time dummies, hedonic imputation, GEKS, HMTS, repeat sales, gradient boosting and a production hierarchical index), Monte Carlo experiments on synthetic Quebec-like markets with known latent paths show where the adaptive hierarchy reduces the error of monthly changes and interval under-coverage, and two deliberate counter-examples where it does not. The empirical panel covers \NCells{} geography--class cells with reliability grades, effective sample sizes and local-data weights; aggregates agree closely with Teranet and CREA indices in Québec City and diverge by an explainable margin in Montréal. Every ingredient of the estimator exists in the literature; the contribution is their integration, the explicit reliability accounting and the documented performance.%
2 +This paper develops and evaluates SHARP-HPI, a framework for monthly quality-adjusted housing price indices at the municipal level in thin markets. Stage one is a robust pooled hedonic regression with fine-scale location fixed effects, smoothly time-varying quality prices and provincial month effects; stage two models each geography's deviation from its parent (province, administrative region, regional county municipality, municipality) with heteroskedastic local-level state-space models whose innovation variances are calibrated by empirical Bayes across cells, so that the weight given to local sales adapts to their reliability. We apply it to \NRawTx{} registered sales in Quebec from January 2021 to October 2026 matched to the assessment roll, with an audited population definition (\NHeadline{} sales), a measured publication lag and real-time vintages. Against eleven benchmark estimators (median, stratified median, pooled and rolling time dummies, hedonic imputation, GEKS, HMTS, repeat sales, gradient boosting and a production hierarchical index), Monte Carlo experiments on synthetic Quebec-like markets with known latent paths show that the adaptive hierarchy halves the error of municipal monthly changes relative to per-cell state-space estimation and keeps interval coverage near nominal, and two deliberate counter-examples show where it does not: heavy-tailed contamination favours a coarser location partition, and at the regional level region-specific hedonic coefficients beat pooled coefficients plus a smoothed deviation. The empirical panel covers \NCells{} geography--class cells with reliability grades, effective sample sizes and local-data weights; aggregates agree closely with Teranet and CREA indices in Québec City and diverge by an explainable margin in Montréal. Every ingredient of the estimator exists in the literature; the contribution is their integration, the explicit reliability accounting and the documented performance.%
3 3 }
modified paper/sections/conclusion.tex +1 −1
@@ -6,4 +6,4 @@ The data limit what any estimator can do. Characteristics come from a single cur
6 6
7 7 \subsection{Conclusion}
8 8
9 −We set out to measure constant-quality house price movements where the data are thin, and to say how far they can be trusted. The framework integrates known components; the evidence shows that their combination produces municipal monthly indices with errors a fraction of those of medians and cell-level time dummies in simulation, intervals whose coverage is close to nominal when the innovation variance is calibrated across cells, a revision profile that is measured rather than designed away, and aggregates that agree with external indices where the scopes match. It also shows where the approach should not be used: in markets with strong idiosyncratic local dynamics the pooled estimator lags a direct one, and for cells with fewer than fifteen effective observations no estimator reports more than a model-assisted interpolation. The panel, the vintage database and the code are released so that both claims can be checked.
9 +We set out to measure constant-quality house price movements where the data are thin, and to say how far they can be trusted. The framework integrates known components; the evidence shows that their combination produces municipal monthly indices with errors a fraction of those of medians and cell-level time dummies in simulation, intervals whose coverage is close to nominal when the innovation variance is calibrated across cells, a revision profile that is measured rather than designed away, and aggregates that agree with external indices where the scopes match. It also shows where the approach should not be used: at the regional level, where sales are plentiful, region-specific hedonic coefficients are preferable to pooled coefficients plus a deviation; with heavy-tailed contamination a coarser location partition is more robust than fine cells of fifteen sales; in markets with strong idiosyncratic local dynamics the real-time estimate lags; and for cells with fewer than fifteen effective observations no estimator reports more than a model-assisted interpolation. The panel, the vintage database and the code are released so that both claims can be checked.
modified paper/sections/introduction.tex +1 −1
@@ -8,6 +8,6 @@ The paper makes four contributions. First, it builds the index on an audited pop
8 8
9 9 We are explicit about novelty. The verified literature (Section~\ref{sec:lit}) contains every ingredient: structural time-series index levels \citep{francke2010thin}, hierarchical common-plus-deviation trends with heavy-tailed errors \citep{francke2017hierarchical}, small-area shrinkage with estimated weights \citep{fayherriot1979,raomolina2015}, rolling-window hedonics with low-volume safeguards \citep{hill2022rtd}, and hedonic multilateral time-series smoothing for small domains in official statistics \citep{ishaak2024hmts}. What we did not find in a single published estimator is the combination of a single-sale hedonic observation equation, a multi-level administrative hierarchy, empirical-Bayes calibration of the pooling strength across cells, reliability accounting for every cell-month, and real-time vintage evaluation with a measured registration lag. The paper should be read as an integration and empirical assessment of these components, not as a new class of model.
10 10
11 −Three findings matter for practice. In the Monte Carlo experiments the hierarchical state-space estimators reduce the root mean squared error of municipal monthly changes by a large factor relative to medians and cell-level time dummies, and the empirical-Bayes calibration of the innovation variance improves interval coverage relative to per-cell maximum likelihood; the local-linear-trend variant and the Gaussian variant do not improve on the local-level robust variant, and in markets with strong idiosyncratic municipal dynamics the pooled estimator is slower than a direct local estimate. On the Quebec data the provincial house index rises from 100 in 2021 to \ProvSephouse{} in September 2026, condominiums to \ProvSepcondo{} and plexes to \ProvSepplex{}; the dispersion across municipalities is wide and largely reliable only for cells graded A to C. In real time, first-release monthly changes at the provincial level are revised by a mean absolute \RevFirsthouseprovince{} log points (houses), and municipal first releases by \RevFirsthousemunicipality{}, which bounds the gain from any non-revising splice policy.
11 +Three findings matter for practice. In the Monte Carlo experiments the hierarchical state-space estimator reduces the root mean squared error of municipal monthly changes to \MCmunicipalitySsharpbaselineRmse{} log points, against \MCmunicipalityKqhpibaselineRmse{} for per-cell state-space estimation, \MCmunicipalityCpooledtdbaselineRmse{} for a cell-level time dummy and \MCmunicipalityAmedianbaselineRmse{} for the median; the empirical-Bayes calibration of the innovation variance matters for interval coverage rather than for point accuracy; the local-linear-trend and Gaussian variants do not improve on the robust local level; and two counter-examples show where the design loses: with heavy-tailed contamination a coarser location partition is more robust, and at the regional level, where sales are plentiful, estimating each region's own hedonic coefficients beats pooled coefficients plus a smoothed deviation. On the Quebec data the provincial house index rises from 100 in 2021 to \ProvSephouse{} in September 2026, condominiums to \ProvSepcondo{} and plexes to \ProvSepplex{}; the dispersion across municipalities is wide and largely reliable only for cells graded A to C. In real time, first-release monthly changes at the provincial level are revised by a mean absolute \RevFirsthouseprovince{} log points (houses), and municipal first releases by \RevFirsthousemunicipality{}; publishing without revision costs about half a log point per month at the municipal level.
12 12
13 13 The remainder of the paper follows the protocol in which it was pre-specified. Section~\ref{sec:lit} reviews the literature and states the gap. Section~\ref{sec:data} describes the data, the institutional setting and the population definition. Section~\ref{sec:estimand} defines the estimand and the measurement challenges. Section~\ref{sec:framework} presents the SHARP-HPI model and identification. Section~\ref{sec:estimation} covers estimation, inference, linking and vintages. Section~\ref{sec:simulation} reports the Monte Carlo evidence. Section~\ref{sec:empirical} presents the Quebec indices, Section~\ref{sec:validation} the benchmarks, validation, ablations and robustness, Section~\ref{sec:implications} the implications, and Section~\ref{sec:conclusion} the limitations and conclusion. Code, the index panel, the vintage database and every table and figure are generated by the accompanying repository.
modified paper/sections/simulation.tex +35 −1
@@ -1,3 +1,37 @@
1 1 \section{Simulation design and Monte Carlo results}\label{sec:simulation}
2 −% filled in after the Monte Carlo run completes (scripts/20_simulation.py)
2 +
3 +\subsection{Design}
4 +
5 +Synthetic markets reproduce the features of the Quebec data that matter for index estimation (Appendix~\ref{app:sim}): 60 municipalities nested in 12 MRCs and 4 regions, expected monthly sales drawn from a log-normal distribution with a median of 3.3 sales (a quarter of the municipalities sell less than once a month, a few sell more than 50 times), latent quality-constant log price paths with nested random-walk deviations, a hedonic surface with a nonlinear floor-area effect and an optional drifting elasticity, spatially correlated cell quality, Student-$t$ noise with contamination, June--July seasonality in volumes, resales, missing floor areas and registration lags. Nine scenarios (Table~\ref{tab:mc_design}) vary the data-generating process: a baseline; a turning point at month 36; a flat market in which the floor area of sold homes trends upward (the median must rise spuriously); a rising market in which sold-home quality declines; drifting hedonic prices with increasing missingness; heavy tails (2.5 degrees of freedom, 4\% contamination); a sparse market with 35\% of the sales; and two deliberate counter-examples, a market without local dynamics (where pooling should dominate) and a market with strong idiosyncratic municipal dynamics (where pooling should hurt and a direct estimator should win). Each scenario is replicated 80 times with new seeds; every estimator of Section~\ref{sec:validation} that can be computed on a municipality is run on every cell, and SHARP-HPI is run in its full form and in five ablations (no empirical-Bayes pooling, no time-varying prices, local linear trend, Gaussian innovations, municipal-level location effects), in smoothed and filtered modes. The truth for a municipality is its latent path; for a region or the province it is the stock-weighted mean of its municipalities' paths. Reported metrics are averaged over cells and replications with Monte Carlo standard errors over replications (Tables~\ref{tab:mc_rmse_municipality}--\ref{tab:mc_lag}, Figures~\ref{fig:mc_rmse}--\ref{fig:mc_cov}).
6 +
3 7 \input{tables/tab_mc_design}
8 +
9 +\subsection{Accuracy of monthly changes}
10 +
11 +At the municipal level the ranking is unambiguous and stable across scenarios (Table~\ref{tab:mc_rmse_municipality}, Figure~\ref{fig:mc_rmse}). In the baseline the RMSE of the monthly log change is \MCmunicipalitySsharpbaselineRmse{} log points for SHARP-HPI, \MCmunicipalityKqhpibaselineRmse{} for the QHPI architecture (per-cell maximum-likelihood deviations), \MCmunicipalityCpooledtdbaselineRmse{} for a cell-level pooled time dummy, \MCmunicipalityBstratifiedbaselineRmse{} for the stratified median and \MCmunicipalityAmedianbaselineRmse{} for the median; repeat sales are estimable in only \MCmunicipalityHrepeatsalesbaselineShare\% of the municipal cell-months and are the noisiest where they exist. The composition scenarios show what quality adjustment buys: in the flat market with rising sold quality the median's monthly changes carry a bias of \MCmunicipalityAmedianflatqualityupBias{} log points per month (about 3\% per year of spurious appreciation), the hedonic estimators' \MCmunicipalitySsharpflatqualityupBias{}. The real-time (filtered) SHARP-HPI has an RMSE of \MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredbaselineRmse{}, twice the smoothed value: half of the final accuracy at the municipal level comes from information that arrives after the month, which is the revision cost documented on the real data.
12 +
13 +\input{tables/tab_mc_rmse_municipality}
14 +
15 +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering
16 +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_mc_rmse.pdf}
17 +\caption{Monte Carlo: RMSE of monthly log changes (log scale) at the municipality and region levels by scenario and method; whiskers are Monte Carlo standard errors.}\label{fig:mc_rmse}
18 +\end{figure}
19 +
20 +\subsection{What each component contributes}
21 +
22 +The ablations identify the mechanisms. Empirical-Bayes calibration of the innovation variance improves the RMSE only slightly in the baseline (\MCmunicipalitySnoEBbaselineRmse{} without it) but matters for calibration: the 95\% intervals cover \MCmunicipalitySsharpbaselineCov\% of the true levels with it and \MCmunicipalitySnoEBbaselineCov\% without, and in the heavy-tailed scenario \MCmunicipalitySnoEBheavytailsCov\% against \MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsCov\%, because per-cell maximum likelihood collapses to the boundary in thin cells. The local-linear-trend variant is never better than the local level and doubles the revision between filtered and smoothed estimates (\MCmunicipalitySLLTbaselineRev{} against \MCmunicipalitySsharpbaselineRev{} log points). Gaussian innovations cost \MCmunicipalitySnorobustbaselineRmse{} against \MCmunicipalitySsharpbaselineRmse{} in the baseline and \MCmunicipalitySnorobustheavytailsRmse{} against \MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsRmse{} with heavy tails. Fine location effects matter in every scenario but one: replacing them by municipal effects raises the RMSE to \MCmunicipalityScoarselocbaselineRmse{} in the baseline. The exception is the heavy-tailed scenario, the first counter-example, where the municipal-location variant is the best estimator (\MCmunicipalityScoarselocheavytailsRmse{} against \MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsRmse): with 4\% contamination and 2.5 degrees of freedom, fine cells of fifteen sales absorb outliers into their fixed effects and transmit them to the residual means, and a coarser partition is more robust. Time-varying quality prices change nothing in the baseline and help marginally when prices drift.
23 +
24 +\subsection{Counter-examples and the regional level}
25 +
26 +The second counter-example, strong idiosyncratic municipal dynamics, did not produce the reversal it was designed for at the municipal level: the smoothed SHARP-HPI remains the most accurate (\MCmunicipalitySsharpidiosyncratictownsRmse{} against \MCmunicipalityKqhpiidiosyncratictownsRmse{} for per-cell estimation) because the empirical-Bayes prior is wide enough to let volatile cells keep large innovation variances. The cost appears in real time: the filtered estimate lags the truth by \MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredidiosyncratictownsLag{} months by cross-correlation, against \MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredbaselineLag{} in the baseline, and its coverage falls to \MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredidiosyncratictownsCov\%. The regional level (Table~\ref{tab:mc_rmse_region}) is where SHARP-HPI's design costs accuracy: with 60 to 1{,}000 sales a month per region, the QHPI architecture, which estimates each liquid region with its own hedonic coefficients and smooths lightly, has an RMSE of \MCregionKqhpibaselineRmse{} against \MCregionSsharpbaselineRmse{} for SHARP-HPI, whose regional path is the pooled provincial path plus a smoothed deviation; the Monte Carlo confirms the repeat-sales evidence of Section~\ref{sec:validation} that region-specific estimation is preferable where the data allow it, and the panel's regional series should be read with that caveat. At the provincial level all hedonic estimators agree within 0.1 log point and the medians are three times noisier (Table~\ref{tab:mc_rmse_province}); the stock-weighted bottom-up aggregate of municipal SHARP indices is as accurate as the direct provincial estimate.
27 +
28 +\input{tables/tab_mc_rmse_region}
29 +\input{tables/tab_mc_rmse_province}
30 +\input{tables/tab_mc_coverage}
31 +\input{tables/tab_mc_bias}
32 +\input{tables/tab_mc_lag}
33 +
34 +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering
35 +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_mc_coverage.pdf}
36 +\caption{Monte Carlo: empirical coverage of nominal 95\% intervals for municipal index levels.}\label{fig:mc_cov}
37 +\end{figure}
modified paper/sections/validation.tex +14 −3
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
2 2
3 3 \subsection{Benchmarks at the provincial and regional levels}\label{sec:bench}
4 4
5 −Table~\ref{tab:benchmarks_province} reports every benchmark at the provincial level: the cumulative log change from January 2021 to September 2026 and the standard deviation of monthly log changes, with wall-clock times. Figure~\ref{fig:provmethods} plots the series. Four facts stand out. First, the quality-adjusted methods agree on the magnitude of the house appreciation: pooled time dummies, rolling time dummies with any window and splice, hedonic imputation, GEKS, HMTS, the QHPI architecture and SHARP-HPI all lie between \ProvDrtdwOneThreemovementhouseTotal{} and \ProvGhmtswOneThreehouseTotal{} log points, against \ProvAmedianhouseTotal{} for the median and \ProvHrepeatsalescshouseTotal{} for Case--Shiller repeat sales. The median understates because the sold houses became smaller and older over the sample; repeat sales overstate because resold houses are renovated. Second, the chained imputation indices drift relative to their direct counterparts for condominiums and plexes (Laspeyres \ProvEhilaspeyreschainedcondoTotal{} against Paasche \ProvEhipaaschechainedcondoTotal{} for condominiums), the classical chain-drift of monthly chaining with per-period hedonic functions estimated on a few thousand sales. Third, methods differ far more in month-to-month volatility than in trend: the standard deviation of monthly changes is about 1.9 log points for the time-dummy family and SHARP, 2.8 for imputation and GEKS, 3--4 for the median and repeat sales, and 1.3--1.9 for HMTS, whose state-space smoothing of each base-period series is visible. Fourth, the gradient-boosting residual index, which forecasts each month's prices from models trained on earlier months, rises by only \ProvJgbmootresidualhouseTotal{} log points: a predictive model that learns location and time jointly absorbs part of the appreciation into its fitted surface, which is why predictive accuracy is not index accuracy. SHARP-HPI with and without time-varying quality prices differ by less than one log point in total at the provincial level; the drift matters below the province.
5 +Table~\ref{tab:bench_prov} reports every benchmark at the provincial level: the cumulative log change from January 2021 to September 2026 and the standard deviation of monthly log changes, with wall-clock times. Figure~\ref{fig:provmethods} plots the series. Four facts stand out. First, the quality-adjusted methods agree on the magnitude of the house appreciation: pooled time dummies, rolling time dummies with any window and splice, hedonic imputation, GEKS, HMTS, the QHPI architecture and SHARP-HPI all lie between \ProvDrtdwOneThreemovementhouseTotal{} and \ProvGhmtswOneThreehouseTotal{} log points, against \ProvAmedianhouseTotal{} for the median and \ProvHrepeatsalescshouseTotal{} for Case--Shiller repeat sales. The median understates because the sold houses became smaller and older over the sample; repeat sales overstate because resold houses are renovated. Second, the chained imputation indices drift relative to their direct counterparts for condominiums and plexes (Laspeyres \ProvEhilaspeyreschainedcondoTotal{} against Paasche \ProvEhipaaschechainedcondoTotal{} for condominiums), the classical chain-drift of monthly chaining with per-period hedonic functions estimated on a few thousand sales. Third, methods differ far more in month-to-month volatility than in trend: the standard deviation of monthly changes is about 1.9 log points for the time-dummy family and SHARP, 2.8 for imputation and GEKS, 3--4 for the median and repeat sales, and 1.3--1.9 for HMTS, whose state-space smoothing of each base-period series is visible. Fourth, the gradient-boosting residual index, which forecasts each month's prices from models trained on earlier months, rises by only \ProvJgbmootresidualhouseTotal{} log points: a predictive model that learns location and time jointly absorbs part of the appreciation into its fitted surface, which is why predictive accuracy is not index accuracy. SHARP-HPI with and without time-varying quality prices differ by less than one log point in total at the provincial level; the drift matters below the province.
6 6
7 7 \input{tables/tab_benchmarks_province}
8 8
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ Table~\ref{tab:benchmarks_province} reports every benchmark at the provincial le
11 11 \caption{Provincial indices by method (2021 average $=100$), January 2021 to September 2026.}\label{fig:provmethods}
12 12 \end{figure}
13 13
14 −Table~\ref{tab:benchmarks_region} moves to the 16 administrative regions, where sample sizes range from 60 to 1{,}200 sales a month and the methods that estimate a separate hedonic function per region become unstable. The regional comparison has no truth; we report the volatility of each series and its root mean squared distance to the regional Case--Shiller index over 12-month changes. Three results are relevant to the design. The median and stratified median are two to three times as volatile as the hedonic methods and the farthest from repeat sales. Among hedonic methods, the QHPI architecture, which fits each liquid region with its own coefficients and smooths lightly, is the least volatile (\RegSdKqhpidirectlocaltdhouse{} for houses) and the closest to repeat sales (\RegRmseRSKqhpidirectlocaltdhouse); SHARP-HPI, whose regional path is the pooled provincial path plus a smoothed deviation, is less volatile than the pooled time dummy (\RegSdSsharphouse{} against \RegSdCpooledtdhouse) but not closer to repeat sales than it (\RegRmseRSSsharphouse{} against \RegRmseRSCpooledtdhouse). The reason is identifiable: with 400 to 1{,}200 sales a month the regional Kalman gain is close to one, so the SHARP regional path is essentially the pooled model's monthly regional mean, and the pooled model constrains quality prices to be common across regions. The Monte Carlo experiments of Section~\ref{sec:simulation}, where the truth is known, show that this costs little when quality prices are common and that regional estimates are then close to the truth; on the real data the repeat-sales arbiter, biased though it is, suggests that region-specific quality prices carry information at the regional level. Figure~\ref{fig:regmethods} shows six regions.
14 +Table~\ref{tab:bench_region} moves to the 16 administrative regions, where sample sizes range from 60 to 1{,}200 sales a month and the methods that estimate a separate hedonic function per region become unstable. The regional comparison has no truth; we report the volatility of each series and its root mean squared distance to the regional Case--Shiller index over 12-month changes. Three results are relevant to the design. The median and stratified median are two to three times as volatile as the hedonic methods and the farthest from repeat sales. Among hedonic methods, the QHPI architecture, which fits each liquid region with its own coefficients and smooths lightly, is the least volatile (\RegSdKqhpidirectlocaltdhouse{} for houses) and the closest to repeat sales (\RegRmseRSKqhpidirectlocaltdhouse); SHARP-HPI, whose regional path is the pooled provincial path plus a smoothed deviation, is less volatile than the pooled time dummy (\RegSdSsharphouse{} against \RegSdCpooledtdhouse) but not closer to repeat sales than it (\RegRmseRSSsharphouse{} against \RegRmseRSCpooledtdhouse). The reason is identifiable: with 400 to 1{,}200 sales a month the regional Kalman gain is close to one, so the SHARP regional path is essentially the pooled model's monthly regional mean, and the pooled model constrains quality prices to be common across regions. The Monte Carlo experiments of Section~\ref{sec:simulation}, where the truth is known, show that this costs little when quality prices are common and that regional estimates are then close to the truth; on the real data the repeat-sales arbiter, biased though it is, suggests that region-specific quality prices carry information at the regional level. Figure~\ref{fig:regmethods} shows six regions.
15 15
16 16 \input{tables/tab_benchmarks_region}
17 17
@@ -76,7 +76,18 @@ Table~\ref{tab:trimming} shows that the provincial time-dummy path is insensitiv
76 76
77 77 \subsection{Real-time vintages and revisions}\label{sec:revisions}
78 78
79 −%%VINTAGES%%
79 +Releases were simulated monthly from July 2022 to October 2026 for the province, the regions and the 64 municipalities with at least 1{,}500 sales, with the ten-day publication delay measured in Section~\ref{sec:data}; at each release both stages are re-estimated on the data available then. Two publication modes are compared. Under \emph{full re-estimation} the published value of a month is the smoothed estimate given the data available at the release, so history is revised; under the \emph{frozen first release} the value of a month is its one-sided filtered estimate and never changes except through stage-one re-estimation, which is the state-space analogue of a movement splice. Table~\ref{tab:revisions} reports, for full re-estimation, the mean absolute revision of the monthly log change between the $k$-th release and the final retrospective series; Table~\ref{tab:revisions_frozen} the same for the frozen policy; Table~\ref{tab:policies} the provincial policies; Figure~\ref{fig:revisions} the profile and the fan of provincial vintages.
80 +
81 +At the provincial level the first-release monthly change is within \PolFirsthouse{} log points of the final value for houses (\PolFirstcondo{} for condominiums, \PolFirstplex{} for plexes), about a tenth of the typical monthly change (\PolMeanAbshouse{}), and the third release is no closer: the provincial revision comes entirely from stage-one re-estimation with more data, not from the latest month, so a frozen policy loses nothing at the province. At the regional and municipal levels the two modes differ. For houses the first-release municipal monthly change is revised by \RevFirsthousemunicipality{} log points under full re-estimation and the gap to the final series under the frozen policy is \FrozenFirsthousemunicipality; for condominiums \RevFirstcondomunicipality{} against \FrozenFirstcondomunicipality. The revision declines over the first six releases as the smoother incorporates later months and then stabilises at the stage-one component; twelve-month changes are revised by \RevFirstTwelvehousemunicipality{} log points at first release for houses. The frozen policy therefore costs about half a log point per month at the municipal level relative to publishing revised values, the price of never revising, and the revision-limited policy (freeze at the third release) captures most of the gain of full re-estimation. These magnitudes are the timeliness--accuracy trade-off that a publisher of municipal indices faces; they are measured on this data and would differ with a slower registry.
82 +
83 +\input{tables/tab_revisions}
84 +\input{tables/tab_revisions_frozen}
85 +\input{tables/tab_policies}
86 +
87 +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering
88 +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_revisions.pdf}
89 +\caption{Left: mean absolute revision of the monthly change by release number, houses (solid: full re-estimation; dashed: frozen first release). Right: every monthly vintage of the provincial house index, July 2022 to October 2026 (the darkest line is the latest).}\label{fig:revisions}
90 +\end{figure}
80 91
81 92 \subsection{External comparison}
82 93
modified paper/tables/numbers.tex +2127 −12
@@ -214,6 +214,2121 @@
214 214 \newcommand{\ExtSHARPhousestockweightedTeranetNSArepeatsalesQubecCMAExt}{43.7}
215 215 \newcommand{\ExtSHARPhousestockweightedTeranetNSArepeatsalesQubecCMAGap}{+4.3}
216 216 \newcommand{\ExtSHARPhousestockweightedTeranetNSArepeatsalesQubecCMASharp}{47.9}
217 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirstcondomunicipality}{1.82}
218 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirstcondoprovince}{0.16}
219 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirstcondoregion}{0.98}
220 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirsthousemunicipality}{2.31}
221 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirsthouseprovince}{0.16}
222 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirsthouseregion}{1.93}
223 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirstplexmunicipality}{3.03}
224 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirstplexprovince}{0.26}
225 +\newcommand{\FrozenFirstplexregion}{1.37}
226 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmedianbaselineBias}{-0.043}
227 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmedianbaselineCov}{n/a}
228 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmedianbaselineLag}{-0.00}
229 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmedianbaselineRev}{n/a}
230 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmedianbaselineRmse}{24.28}
231 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmedianbaselineShare}{82}
232 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmediandriftinghedonicsBias}{-0.040}
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234 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmediandriftinghedonicsLag}{-0.00}
235 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmediandriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
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237 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalityAmediandriftinghedonicsShare}{82}
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871 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
872 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownRmse}{3.02}
873 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
874 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredsparseBias}{0.008}
875 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredsparseCov}{98}
876 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredsparseLag}{+0.19}
877 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredsparseRev}{n/a}
878 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredsparseRmse}{4.17}
879 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredsparseShare}{100}
880 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredturningpointBias}{0.001}
881 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredturningpointCov}{97}
882 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredturningpointLag}{+0.20}
883 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredturningpointRev}{n/a}
884 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredturningpointRmse}{3.02}
885 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpfilteredturningpointShare}{100}
886 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpflatqualityupBias}{0.052}
887 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpflatqualityupCov}{97}
888 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpflatqualityupLag}{+0.01}
889 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpflatqualityupRev}{2.37}
890 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpflatqualityupRmse}{1.58}
891 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpflatqualityupShare}{100}
892 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsBias}{-0.005}
893 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsCov}{92}
894 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsLag}{-0.01}
895 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsRev}{4.80}
896 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsRmse}{4.62}
897 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpheavytailsShare}{100}
898 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.005}
899 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpidiosyncratictownsCov}{96}
900 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.02}
901 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpidiosyncratictownsRev}{3.10}
902 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpidiosyncratictownsRmse}{2.52}
903 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
904 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.002}
905 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpnolocaldynamicsCov}{99}
906 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
907 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpnolocaldynamicsRev}{2.20}
908 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.35}
909 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
910 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharprisingqualitydownBias}{-0.043}
911 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharprisingqualitydownCov}{98}
912 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharprisingqualitydownLag}{+0.01}
913 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharprisingqualitydownRev}{2.37}
914 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharprisingqualitydownRmse}{1.58}
915 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharprisingqualitydownShare}{100}
916 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpsparseBias}{0.004}
917 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpsparseCov}{99}
918 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpsparseLag}{+0.02}
919 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpsparseRev}{3.16}
920 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpsparseRmse}{2.40}
921 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpsparseShare}{100}
922 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpturningpointBias}{0.003}
923 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpturningpointCov}{98}
924 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpturningpointLag}{+0.00}
925 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpturningpointRev}{2.36}
926 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpturningpointRmse}{1.58}
927 +\newcommand{\MCmunicipalitySsharpturningpointShare}{100}
928 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianbaselineBias}{0.010}
929 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianbaselineCov}{n/a}
930 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianbaselineLag}{+0.14}
931 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianbaselineRev}{n/a}
932 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianbaselineRmse}{3.56}
933 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianbaselineShare}{100}
934 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediandriftinghedonicsBias}{0.010}
935 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediandriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
936 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediandriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.06}
937 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediandriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
938 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediandriftinghedonicsRmse}{3.69}
939 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediandriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
940 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianflatqualityupBias}{0.265}
941 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
942 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianflatqualityupLag}{-0.05}
943 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
944 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianflatqualityupRmse}{3.62}
945 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianflatqualityupShare}{100}
946 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianheavytailsBias}{-0.002}
947 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianheavytailsCov}{n/a}
948 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianheavytailsLag}{-0.06}
949 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianheavytailsRev}{n/a}
950 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianheavytailsRmse}{3.59}
951 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianheavytailsShare}{100}
952 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.003}
953 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianidiosyncratictownsCov}{n/a}
954 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianidiosyncratictownsLag}{-0.01}
955 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
956 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianidiosyncratictownsRmse}{3.62}
957 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
958 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediannolocaldynamicsBias}{0.008}
959 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediannolocaldynamicsCov}{n/a}
960 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediannolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.04}
961 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediannolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
962 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediannolocaldynamicsRmse}{3.56}
963 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediannolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
964 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.227}
965 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianrisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
966 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.10}
967 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
968 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianrisingqualitydownRmse}{3.55}
969 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
970 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediansparseBias}{-0.006}
971 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediansparseCov}{n/a}
972 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediansparseLag}{+0.10}
973 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediansparseRev}{n/a}
974 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediansparseRmse}{6.07}
975 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmediansparseShare}{100}
976 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianturningpointBias}{0.010}
977 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianturningpointCov}{n/a}
978 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianturningpointLag}{+0.09}
979 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianturningpointRev}{n/a}
980 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianturningpointRmse}{3.56}
981 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceAmedianturningpointShare}{100}
982 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedbaselineBias}{0.024}
983 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedbaselineCov}{n/a}
984 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedbaselineLag}{+0.05}
985 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedbaselineRev}{n/a}
986 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedbaselineRmse}{3.08}
987 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedbaselineShare}{100}
988 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifieddriftinghedonicsBias}{0.024}
989 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifieddriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
990 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifieddriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.03}
991 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifieddriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
992 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifieddriftinghedonicsRmse}{3.14}
993 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifieddriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
994 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedflatqualityupBias}{0.090}
995 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
996 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedflatqualityupLag}{+0.05}
997 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
998 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedflatqualityupRmse}{3.13}
999 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedflatqualityupShare}{100}
1000 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedheavytailsBias}{0.001}
1001 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedheavytailsCov}{n/a}
1002 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedheavytailsLag}{-0.04}
1003 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1004 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedheavytailsRmse}{3.11}
1005 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedheavytailsShare}{100}
1006 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.007}
1007 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsCov}{n/a}
1008 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsLag}{-0.01}
1009 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1010 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsRmse}{3.15}
1011 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1012 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiednolocaldynamicsBias}{0.022}
1013 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiednolocaldynamicsCov}{n/a}
1014 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiednolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.01}
1015 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiednolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1016 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiednolocaldynamicsRmse}{3.07}
1017 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiednolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1018 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.033}
1019 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedrisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1020 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.01}
1021 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1022 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedrisingqualitydownRmse}{3.06}
1023 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1024 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedsparseBias}{0.006}
1025 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedsparseCov}{n/a}
1026 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedsparseLag}{-0.04}
1027 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedsparseRev}{n/a}
1028 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedsparseRmse}{5.21}
1029 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedsparseShare}{100}
1030 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedturningpointBias}{0.024}
1031 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedturningpointCov}{n/a}
1032 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedturningpointLag}{+0.00}
1033 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedturningpointRev}{n/a}
1034 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedturningpointRmse}{3.08}
1035 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceBstratifiedturningpointShare}{100}
1036 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdbaselineBias}{0.000}
1037 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdbaselineCov}{98}
1038 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdbaselineLag}{+0.00}
1039 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdbaselineRev}{n/a}
1040 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdbaselineRmse}{1.24}
1041 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdbaselineShare}{100}
1042 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtddriftinghedonicsBias}{0.001}
1043 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtddriftinghedonicsCov}{98}
1044 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtddriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
1045 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtddriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1046 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtddriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.29}
1047 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtddriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1048 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdflatqualityupBias}{0.045}
1049 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdflatqualityupCov}{97}
1050 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdflatqualityupLag}{+0.01}
1051 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1052 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdflatqualityupRmse}{1.25}
1053 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdflatqualityupShare}{100}
1054 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdheavytailsBias}{-0.005}
1055 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdheavytailsCov}{98}
1056 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdheavytailsLag}{+0.00}
1057 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1058 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdheavytailsRmse}{1.24}
1059 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdheavytailsShare}{100}
1060 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.001}
1061 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
1062 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.00}
1063 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1064 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.37}
1065 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1066 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.000}
1067 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsCov}{98}
1068 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
1069 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1070 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.22}
1071 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1072 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.043}
1073 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdrisingqualitydownCov}{97}
1074 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
1075 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1076 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdrisingqualitydownRmse}{1.24}
1077 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1078 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdsparseBias}{-0.003}
1079 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdsparseCov}{98}
1080 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdsparseLag}{+0.00}
1081 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdsparseRev}{n/a}
1082 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdsparseRmse}{2.13}
1083 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdsparseShare}{100}
1084 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdturningpointBias}{0.000}
1085 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdturningpointCov}{98}
1086 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdturningpointLag}{+0.00}
1087 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdturningpointRev}{n/a}
1088 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdturningpointRmse}{1.24}
1089 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceCpooledtdturningpointShare}{100}
1090 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreebaselineBias}{-0.003}
1091 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreebaselineCov}{n/a}
1092 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreebaselineLag}{+0.00}
1093 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreebaselineRev}{n/a}
1094 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreebaselineRmse}{1.39}
1095 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreebaselineShare}{100}
1096 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsBias}{-0.002}
1097 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
1098 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
1099 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1100 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.44}
1101 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1102 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupBias}{0.042}
1103 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
1104 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupLag}{+0.03}
1105 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1106 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupRmse}{1.40}
1107 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupShare}{100}
1108 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeheavytailsBias}{-0.005}
1109 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeheavytailsCov}{n/a}
1110 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeheavytailsLag}{+0.00}
1111 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1112 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeheavytailsRmse}{1.41}
1113 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeheavytailsShare}{100}
1114 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.006}
1115 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsCov}{n/a}
1116 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.00}
1117 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1118 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.44}
1119 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1120 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.003}
1121 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsCov}{n/a}
1122 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
1123 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1124 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.39}
1125 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1126 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownBias}{-0.045}
1127 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1128 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
1129 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1130 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownRmse}{1.39}
1131 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1132 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreesparseBias}{-0.009}
1133 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreesparseCov}{n/a}
1134 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreesparseLag}{+0.00}
1135 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreesparseRev}{n/a}
1136 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreesparseRmse}{2.36}
1137 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreesparseShare}{100}
1138 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeturningpointBias}{-0.003}
1139 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeturningpointCov}{n/a}
1140 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeturningpointLag}{+0.00}
1141 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeturningpointRev}{n/a}
1142 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeturningpointRmse}{1.39}
1143 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceDrtdOneThreeturningpointShare}{100}
1144 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesbaselineBias}{-0.007}
1145 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesbaselineCov}{n/a}
1146 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesbaselineLag}{-0.03}
1147 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesbaselineRev}{n/a}
1148 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesbaselineRmse}{5.32}
1149 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesbaselineShare}{100}
1150 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsBias}{-0.004}
1151 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
1152 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.01}
1153 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1154 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsRmse}{5.37}
1155 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1156 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesflatqualityupBias}{0.041}
1157 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
1158 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesflatqualityupLag}{-0.17}
1159 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1160 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesflatqualityupRmse}{5.33}
1161 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesflatqualityupShare}{100}
1162 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesheavytailsBias}{-0.016}
1163 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesheavytailsCov}{n/a}
1164 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesheavytailsLag}{+0.25}
1165 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1166 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesheavytailsRmse}{7.42}
1167 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesheavytailsShare}{100}
1168 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsBias}{0.007}
1169 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsCov}{n/a}
1170 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.15}
1171 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1172 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsRmse}{5.66}
1173 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1174 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.008}
1175 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsCov}{n/a}
1176 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsLag}{-0.03}
1177 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1178 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsRmse}{5.28}
1179 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1180 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.039}
1181 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1182 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownLag}{-0.01}
1183 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1184 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownRmse}{5.33}
1185 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1186 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalessparseBias}{-0.008}
1187 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalessparseCov}{n/a}
1188 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalessparseLag}{-0.10}
1189 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalessparseRev}{n/a}
1190 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalessparseRmse}{9.57}
1191 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalessparseShare}{100}
1192 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesturningpointBias}{-0.007}
1193 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesturningpointCov}{n/a}
1194 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesturningpointLag}{-0.07}
1195 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesturningpointRev}{n/a}
1196 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesturningpointRmse}{5.32}
1197 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceHrepeatsalesturningpointShare}{100}
1198 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpibaselineBias}{-0.003}
1199 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpibaselineCov}{n/a}
1200 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpibaselineLag}{+0.00}
1201 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpibaselineRev}{n/a}
1202 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpibaselineRmse}{1.39}
1203 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpibaselineShare}{100}
1204 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpidriftinghedonicsBias}{-0.002}
1205 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpidriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
1206 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpidriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
1207 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpidriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1208 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpidriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.44}
1209 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpidriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1210 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiflatqualityupBias}{0.042}
1211 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
1212 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiflatqualityupLag}{+0.03}
1213 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1214 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiflatqualityupRmse}{1.40}
1215 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiflatqualityupShare}{100}
1216 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiheavytailsBias}{-0.005}
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1218 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiheavytailsLag}{+0.00}
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1220 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiheavytailsRmse}{1.41}
1221 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiheavytailsShare}{100}
1222 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.006}
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1226 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.44}
1227 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1228 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpinolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.003}
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1230 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpinolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
1231 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpinolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1232 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpinolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.39}
1233 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpinolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1234 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpirisingqualitydownBias}{-0.045}
1235 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpirisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1236 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpirisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
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1238 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpirisingqualitydownRmse}{1.39}
1239 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpirisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1240 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpisparseBias}{-0.009}
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1242 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpisparseLag}{+0.00}
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1244 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpisparseRmse}{2.36}
1245 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpisparseShare}{100}
1246 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiturningpointBias}{-0.003}
1247 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiturningpointCov}{n/a}
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1250 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiturningpointRmse}{1.39}
1251 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceKqhpiturningpointShare}{100}
1252 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTbaselineBias}{0.001}
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1254 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTbaselineLag}{+0.00}
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1256 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTbaselineRmse}{1.25}
1257 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTbaselineShare}{100}
1258 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.001}
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1260 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
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1262 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.29}
1263 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1264 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTflatqualityupBias}{0.049}
1265 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTflatqualityupCov}{96}
1266 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTflatqualityupLag}{+0.01}
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1268 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTflatqualityupRmse}{1.25}
1269 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTflatqualityupShare}{100}
1270 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTheavytailsBias}{-0.003}
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1272 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTheavytailsLag}{+0.00}
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1281 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1282 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.001}
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1284 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
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1286 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.22}
1287 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1288 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.044}
1289 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTrisingqualitydownCov}{97}
1290 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
1291 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1292 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTrisingqualitydownRmse}{1.25}
1293 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1294 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTsparseBias}{-0.002}
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1296 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTsparseLag}{+0.00}
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1298 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTsparseRmse}{2.14}
1299 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTsparseShare}{100}
1300 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTturningpointBias}{0.001}
1301 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTturningpointCov}{98}
1302 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTturningpointLag}{+0.00}
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1304 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTturningpointRmse}{1.25}
1305 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSLLTturningpointShare}{100}
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1308 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocbaselineLag}{+0.00}
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1311 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocbaselineShare}{100}
1312 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.010}
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1314 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
1315 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocdriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1316 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.92}
1317 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1318 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocflatqualityupBias}{0.044}
1319 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocflatqualityupCov}{97}
1320 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocflatqualityupLag}{+0.07}
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1322 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocflatqualityupRmse}{1.88}
1323 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocflatqualityupShare}{100}
1324 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocheavytailsBias}{0.002}
1325 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocheavytailsCov}{98}
1326 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocheavytailsLag}{+0.01}
1327 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1328 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocheavytailsRmse}{1.96}
1329 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocheavytailsShare}{100}
1330 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.004}
1331 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
1332 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocidiosyncratictownsLag}{-0.01}
1333 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1334 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.96}
1335 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1336 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.008}
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1338 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
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1340 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.87}
1341 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1342 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.023}
1343 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocrisingqualitydownCov}{98}
1344 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
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1347 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
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1352 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocsparseRmse}{3.18}
1353 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocsparseShare}{100}
1354 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocturningpointBias}{0.009}
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1356 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocturningpointLag}{+0.00}
1357 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocturningpointRev}{n/a}
1358 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocturningpointRmse}{1.88}
1359 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceScoarselocturningpointShare}{100}
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1365 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBbaselineShare}{100}
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1368 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
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1370 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.29}
1371 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1372 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBflatqualityupBias}{0.049}
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1374 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBflatqualityupLag}{+0.01}
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1389 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
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1392 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
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1395 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
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1398 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
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1401 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
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1406 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoEBsparseRmse}{2.14}
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1425 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1426 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVflatqualityupBias}{0.045}
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1431 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVflatqualityupShare}{100}
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1443 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1444 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVnolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.000}
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1449 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1450 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.043}
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1452 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
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1455 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
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1461 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVsparseShare}{100}
1462 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnoTVturningpointBias}{0.000}
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1500 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnorobustnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
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1504 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnorobustrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.046}
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1506 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnorobustrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
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1515 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnorobustsparseShare}{100}
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1521 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSnorobustturningpointShare}{100}
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1545 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupflatqualityupShare}{100}
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1557 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1558 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.001}
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1562 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.23}
1563 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1564 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomuprisingqualitydownBias}{-0.045}
1565 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomuprisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1566 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomuprisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
1567 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomuprisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1568 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomuprisingqualitydownRmse}{1.26}
1569 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomuprisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1570 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupsparseBias}{-0.000}
1571 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupsparseCov}{n/a}
1572 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupsparseLag}{+0.00}
1573 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupsparseRev}{n/a}
1574 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupsparseRmse}{2.15}
1575 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupsparseShare}{100}
1576 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupturningpointBias}{0.001}
1577 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupturningpointCov}{n/a}
1578 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupturningpointLag}{+0.00}
1579 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupturningpointRev}{n/a}
1580 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupturningpointRmse}{1.26}
1581 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpbottomupturningpointShare}{100}
1582 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.001}
1583 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpdriftinghedonicsCov}{98}
1584 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
1585 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpdriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1586 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.29}
1587 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1588 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpflatqualityupBias}{0.049}
1589 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpflatqualityupCov}{96}
1590 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpflatqualityupLag}{+0.01}
1591 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1592 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpflatqualityupRmse}{1.25}
1593 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpflatqualityupShare}{100}
1594 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpheavytailsBias}{-0.003}
1595 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpheavytailsCov}{98}
1596 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpheavytailsLag}{+0.00}
1597 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1598 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpheavytailsRmse}{1.26}
1599 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpheavytailsShare}{100}
1600 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpidiosyncratictownsBias}{0.000}
1601 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
1602 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.00}
1603 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1604 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.37}
1605 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1606 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.001}
1607 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpnolocaldynamicsCov}{98}
1608 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
1609 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpnolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1610 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.22}
1611 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1612 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharprisingqualitydownBias}{-0.044}
1613 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharprisingqualitydownCov}{97}
1614 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharprisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
1615 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharprisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1616 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharprisingqualitydownRmse}{1.25}
1617 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharprisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1618 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpsparseBias}{-0.002}
1619 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpsparseCov}{98}
1620 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpsparseLag}{+0.00}
1621 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpsparseRev}{n/a}
1622 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpsparseRmse}{2.14}
1623 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpsparseShare}{100}
1624 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpturningpointBias}{0.001}
1625 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpturningpointCov}{98}
1626 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpturningpointLag}{+0.00}
1627 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpturningpointRev}{n/a}
1628 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpturningpointRmse}{1.25}
1629 +\newcommand{\MCprovinceSsharpturningpointShare}{100}
1630 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianbaselineBias}{0.011}
1631 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianbaselineCov}{n/a}
1632 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianbaselineLag}{+0.14}
1633 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianbaselineRev}{n/a}
1634 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianbaselineRmse}{7.24}
1635 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianbaselineShare}{100}
1636 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediandriftinghedonicsBias}{0.012}
1637 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediandriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
1638 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediandriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.11}
1639 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediandriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1640 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediandriftinghedonicsRmse}{7.56}
1641 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediandriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1642 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianflatqualityupBias}{0.267}
1643 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
1644 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianflatqualityupLag}{+0.01}
1645 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1646 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianflatqualityupRmse}{7.34}
1647 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianflatqualityupShare}{100}
1648 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianheavytailsBias}{0.001}
1649 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianheavytailsCov}{n/a}
1650 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianheavytailsLag}{-0.16}
1651 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1652 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianheavytailsRmse}{7.34}
1653 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianheavytailsShare}{100}
1654 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.007}
1655 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianidiosyncratictownsCov}{n/a}
1656 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianidiosyncratictownsLag}{-0.01}
1657 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1658 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianidiosyncratictownsRmse}{7.49}
1659 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1660 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediannolocaldynamicsBias}{0.009}
1661 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediannolocaldynamicsCov}{n/a}
1662 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediannolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.07}
1663 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediannolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1664 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediannolocaldynamicsRmse}{7.20}
1665 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediannolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1666 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.228}
1667 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianrisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1668 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.07}
1669 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1670 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianrisingqualitydownRmse}{7.19}
1671 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1672 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediansparseBias}{-0.004}
1673 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediansparseCov}{n/a}
1674 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediansparseLag}{+0.06}
1675 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediansparseRev}{n/a}
1676 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediansparseRmse}{12.37}
1677 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmediansparseShare}{100}
1678 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianturningpointBias}{0.011}
1679 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianturningpointCov}{n/a}
1680 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianturningpointLag}{+0.11}
1681 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianturningpointRev}{n/a}
1682 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianturningpointRmse}{7.24}
1683 +\newcommand{\MCregionAmedianturningpointShare}{100}
1684 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedbaselineBias}{0.010}
1685 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedbaselineCov}{n/a}
1686 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedbaselineLag}{-0.03}
1687 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedbaselineRev}{n/a}
1688 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedbaselineRmse}{6.03}
1689 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedbaselineShare}{100}
1690 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifieddriftinghedonicsBias}{0.013}
1691 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifieddriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
1692 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifieddriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.06}
1693 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifieddriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1694 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifieddriftinghedonicsRmse}{6.18}
1695 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifieddriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1696 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedflatqualityupBias}{0.089}
1697 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
1698 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedflatqualityupLag}{-0.05}
1699 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1700 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedflatqualityupRmse}{6.12}
1701 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedflatqualityupShare}{100}
1702 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedheavytailsBias}{-0.014}
1703 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedheavytailsCov}{n/a}
1704 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedheavytailsLag}{-0.03}
1705 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1706 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedheavytailsRmse}{6.35}
1707 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedheavytailsShare}{100}
1708 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsBias}{0.004}
1709 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsCov}{n/a}
1710 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsLag}{-0.06}
1711 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1712 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsRmse}{6.47}
1713 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1714 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiednolocaldynamicsBias}{0.008}
1715 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiednolocaldynamicsCov}{n/a}
1716 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiednolocaldynamicsLag}{-0.03}
1717 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiednolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1718 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiednolocaldynamicsRmse}{6.01}
1719 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiednolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1720 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.058}
1721 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedrisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1722 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
1723 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1724 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedrisingqualitydownRmse}{6.09}
1725 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1726 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedsparseBias}{0.004}
1727 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedsparseCov}{n/a}
1728 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedsparseLag}{+0.01}
1729 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedsparseRev}{n/a}
1730 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedsparseRmse}{9.12}
1731 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedsparseShare}{100}
1732 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedturningpointBias}{0.011}
1733 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedturningpointCov}{n/a}
1734 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedturningpointLag}{-0.00}
1735 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedturningpointRev}{n/a}
1736 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedturningpointRmse}{6.03}
1737 +\newcommand{\MCregionBstratifiedturningpointShare}{100}
1738 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdbaselineBias}{0.003}
1739 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdbaselineCov}{98}
1740 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdbaselineLag}{-0.01}
1741 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdbaselineRev}{n/a}
1742 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdbaselineRmse}{2.63}
1743 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdbaselineShare}{100}
1744 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtddriftinghedonicsBias}{0.003}
1745 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtddriftinghedonicsCov}{98}
1746 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtddriftinghedonicsLag}{-0.00}
1747 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtddriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1748 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtddriftinghedonicsRmse}{2.73}
1749 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtddriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1750 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdflatqualityupBias}{0.047}
1751 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdflatqualityupCov}{98}
1752 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdflatqualityupLag}{-0.03}
1753 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1754 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdflatqualityupRmse}{2.64}
1755 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdflatqualityupShare}{100}
1756 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdheavytailsBias}{-0.004}
1757 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdheavytailsCov}{98}
1758 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdheavytailsLag}{-0.01}
1759 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1760 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdheavytailsRmse}{2.56}
1761 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdheavytailsShare}{100}
1762 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsBias}{0.002}
1763 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
1764 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsLag}{-0.01}
1765 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1766 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsRmse}{2.89}
1767 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1768 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.002}
1769 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsCov}{98}
1770 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
1771 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1772 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsRmse}{2.61}
1773 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1774 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.040}
1775 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdrisingqualitydownCov}{98}
1776 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdrisingqualitydownLag}{-0.02}
1777 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1778 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdrisingqualitydownRmse}{2.63}
1779 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1780 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdsparseBias}{0.002}
1781 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdsparseCov}{98}
1782 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdsparseLag}{+0.04}
1783 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdsparseRev}{n/a}
1784 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdsparseRmse}{4.64}
1785 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdsparseShare}{100}
1786 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdturningpointBias}{0.003}
1787 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdturningpointCov}{98}
1788 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdturningpointLag}{-0.01}
1789 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdturningpointRev}{n/a}
1790 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdturningpointRmse}{2.63}
1791 +\newcommand{\MCregionCpooledtdturningpointShare}{100}
1792 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreebaselineBias}{0.000}
1793 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreebaselineCov}{n/a}
1794 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreebaselineLag}{-0.03}
1795 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreebaselineRev}{n/a}
1796 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreebaselineRmse}{2.99}
1797 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreebaselineShare}{100}
1798 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsBias}{0.002}
1799 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
1800 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsLag}{-0.03}
1801 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1802 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsRmse}{3.10}
1803 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreedriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1804 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupBias}{0.045}
1805 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
1806 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupLag}{-0.04}
1807 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1808 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupRmse}{3.00}
1809 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeflatqualityupShare}{100}
1810 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeheavytailsBias}{-0.005}
1811 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeheavytailsCov}{n/a}
1812 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeheavytailsLag}{-0.02}
1813 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1814 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeheavytailsRmse}{2.99}
1815 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeheavytailsShare}{100}
1816 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.001}
1817 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsCov}{n/a}
1818 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.00}
1819 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1820 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsRmse}{3.11}
1821 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1822 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.000}
1823 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsCov}{n/a}
1824 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsLag}{-0.02}
1825 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1826 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsRmse}{2.99}
1827 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreenolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1828 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownBias}{-0.042}
1829 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1830 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownLag}{-0.03}
1831 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1832 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownRmse}{2.99}
1833 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreerisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1834 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreesparseBias}{-0.000}
1835 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreesparseCov}{n/a}
1836 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreesparseLag}{+0.01}
1837 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreesparseRev}{n/a}
1838 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreesparseRmse}{5.45}
1839 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreesparseShare}{100}
1840 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeturningpointBias}{0.000}
1841 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeturningpointCov}{n/a}
1842 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeturningpointLag}{-0.01}
1843 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeturningpointRev}{n/a}
1844 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeturningpointRmse}{2.99}
1845 +\newcommand{\MCregionDrtdOneThreeturningpointShare}{100}
1846 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesbaselineBias}{0.006}
1847 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesbaselineCov}{n/a}
1848 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesbaselineLag}{-0.05}
1849 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesbaselineRev}{n/a}
1850 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesbaselineRmse}{12.03}
1851 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesbaselineShare}{100}
1852 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.007}
1853 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsCov}{n/a}
1854 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsLag}{-0.04}
1855 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1856 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsRmse}{12.18}
1857 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1858 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesflatqualityupBias}{0.053}
1859 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesflatqualityupCov}{n/a}
1860 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesflatqualityupLag}{+0.03}
1861 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1862 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesflatqualityupRmse}{12.05}
1863 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesflatqualityupShare}{100}
1864 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesheavytailsBias}{-0.031}
1865 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesheavytailsCov}{n/a}
1866 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesheavytailsLag}{+0.12}
1867 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1868 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesheavytailsRmse}{15.80}
1869 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesheavytailsShare}{100}
1870 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsBias}{0.009}
1871 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsCov}{n/a}
1872 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.01}
1873 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1874 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsRmse}{12.59}
1875 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1876 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.005}
1877 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsCov}{n/a}
1878 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsLag}{-0.02}
1879 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1880 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsRmse}{12.00}
1881 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1882 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.026}
1883 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownCov}{n/a}
1884 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownLag}{-0.05}
1885 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1886 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownRmse}{12.04}
1887 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1888 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalessparseBias}{-0.023}
1889 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalessparseCov}{n/a}
1890 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalessparseLag}{-0.06}
1891 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalessparseRev}{n/a}
1892 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalessparseRmse}{22.22}
1893 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalessparseShare}{97}
1894 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesturningpointBias}{0.006}
1895 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesturningpointCov}{n/a}
1896 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesturningpointLag}{+0.01}
1897 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesturningpointRev}{n/a}
1898 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesturningpointRmse}{12.03}
1899 +\newcommand{\MCregionHrepeatsalesturningpointShare}{100}
1900 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpibaselineBias}{-0.006}
1901 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpibaselineCov}{94}
1902 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpibaselineLag}{-0.02}
1903 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpibaselineRev}{n/a}
1904 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpibaselineRmse}{1.17}
1905 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpibaselineShare}{100}
1906 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpidriftinghedonicsBias}{-0.007}
1907 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpidriftinghedonicsCov}{93}
1908 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpidriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
1909 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpidriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
1910 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpidriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.19}
1911 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpidriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1912 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiflatqualityupBias}{0.046}
1913 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiflatqualityupCov}{83}
1914 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiflatqualityupLag}{-0.03}
1915 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
1916 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiflatqualityupRmse}{0.84}
1917 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiflatqualityupShare}{100}
1918 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiheavytailsBias}{-0.010}
1919 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiheavytailsCov}{92}
1920 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiheavytailsLag}{-0.01}
1921 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiheavytailsRev}{n/a}
1922 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiheavytailsRmse}{1.21}
1923 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiheavytailsShare}{100}
1924 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.007}
1925 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiidiosyncratictownsCov}{92}
1926 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.01}
1927 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
1928 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.27}
1929 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1930 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpinolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.008}
1931 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpinolocaldynamicsCov}{94}
1932 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpinolocaldynamicsLag}{-0.02}
1933 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpinolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
1934 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpinolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.08}
1935 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpinolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1936 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpirisingqualitydownBias}{-0.055}
1937 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpirisingqualitydownCov}{88}
1938 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpirisingqualitydownLag}{-0.03}
1939 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpirisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
1940 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpirisingqualitydownRmse}{1.25}
1941 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpirisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1942 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpisparseBias}{-0.010}
1943 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpisparseCov}{79}
1944 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpisparseLag}{+0.03}
1945 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpisparseRev}{n/a}
1946 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpisparseRmse}{2.14}
1947 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpisparseShare}{100}
1948 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiturningpointBias}{0.007}
1949 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiturningpointCov}{94}
1950 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiturningpointLag}{-0.00}
1951 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiturningpointRev}{n/a}
1952 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiturningpointRmse}{1.23}
1953 +\newcommand{\MCregionKqhpiturningpointShare}{100}
1954 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTbaselineBias}{0.002}
1955 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTbaselineCov}{98}
1956 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTbaselineLag}{+0.01}
1957 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTbaselineRev}{0.82}
1958 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTbaselineRmse}{1.39}
1959 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTbaselineShare}{100}
1960 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.003}
1961 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTdriftinghedonicsCov}{98}
1962 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.01}
1963 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTdriftinghedonicsRev}{0.82}
1964 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.43}
1965 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
1966 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTflatqualityupBias}{0.051}
1967 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTflatqualityupCov}{96}
1968 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTflatqualityupLag}{+0.02}
1969 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTflatqualityupRev}{0.82}
1970 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTflatqualityupRmse}{1.40}
1971 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTflatqualityupShare}{100}
1972 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTheavytailsBias}{-0.005}
1973 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTheavytailsCov}{93}
1974 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTheavytailsLag}{-0.03}
1975 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTheavytailsRev}{1.11}
1976 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTheavytailsRmse}{2.34}
1977 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTheavytailsShare}{100}
1978 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.002}
1979 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
1980 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.00}
1981 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTidiosyncratictownsRev}{0.91}
1982 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.57}
1983 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
1984 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.001}
1985 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTnolocaldynamicsCov}{99}
1986 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
1987 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTnolocaldynamicsRev}{0.64}
1988 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.23}
1989 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
1990 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.044}
1991 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTrisingqualitydownCov}{96}
1992 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
1993 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTrisingqualitydownRev}{0.82}
1994 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTrisingqualitydownRmse}{1.39}
1995 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
1996 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTsparseBias}{0.002}
1997 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTsparseCov}{99}
1998 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTsparseLag}{+0.00}
1999 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTsparseRev}{1.24}
2000 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTsparseRmse}{2.23}
2001 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTsparseShare}{100}
2002 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTturningpointBias}{0.002}
2003 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTturningpointCov}{98}
2004 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTturningpointLag}{+0.01}
2005 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTturningpointRev}{0.82}
2006 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTturningpointRmse}{1.39}
2007 +\newcommand{\MCregionSLLTturningpointShare}{100}
2008 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocbaselineBias}{0.010}
2009 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocbaselineCov}{99}
2010 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocbaselineLag}{+0.00}
2011 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocbaselineRev}{0.61}
2012 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocbaselineRmse}{1.97}
2013 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocbaselineShare}{100}
2014 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.011}
2015 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocdriftinghedonicsCov}{99}
2016 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.02}
2017 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocdriftinghedonicsRev}{0.61}
2018 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocdriftinghedonicsRmse}{2.01}
2019 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
2020 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocflatqualityupBias}{0.046}
2021 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocflatqualityupCov}{98}
2022 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocflatqualityupLag}{+0.07}
2023 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocflatqualityupRev}{0.61}
2024 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocflatqualityupRmse}{1.97}
2025 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocflatqualityupShare}{100}
2026 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocheavytailsBias}{0.001}
2027 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocheavytailsCov}{99}
2028 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocheavytailsLag}{+0.03}
2029 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocheavytailsRev}{0.87}
2030 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocheavytailsRmse}{2.18}
2031 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocheavytailsShare}{100}
2032 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.004}
2033 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocidiosyncratictownsCov}{99}
2034 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.01}
2035 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocidiosyncratictownsRev}{0.69}
2036 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocidiosyncratictownsRmse}{2.11}
2037 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
2038 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.008}
2039 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocnolocaldynamicsCov}{99}
2040 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.01}
2041 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocnolocaldynamicsRev}{0.40}
2042 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.87}
2043 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
2044 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.023}
2045 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocrisingqualitydownCov}{98}
2046 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
2047 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocrisingqualitydownRev}{0.61}
2048 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocrisingqualitydownRmse}{1.97}
2049 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
2050 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocsparseBias}{-0.007}
2051 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocsparseCov}{99}
2052 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocsparseLag}{+0.12}
2053 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocsparseRev}{0.86}
2054 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocsparseRmse}{3.24}
2055 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocsparseShare}{100}
2056 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocturningpointBias}{0.010}
2057 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocturningpointCov}{99}
2058 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocturningpointLag}{+0.01}
2059 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocturningpointRev}{0.61}
2060 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocturningpointRmse}{1.97}
2061 +\newcommand{\MCregionScoarselocturningpointShare}{100}
2062 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBbaselineBias}{0.002}
2063 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBbaselineCov}{98}
2064 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBbaselineLag}{+0.00}
2065 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBbaselineRev}{0.53}
2066 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBbaselineRmse}{1.39}
2067 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBbaselineShare}{100}
2068 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.002}
2069 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBdriftinghedonicsCov}{98}
2070 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.01}
2071 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBdriftinghedonicsRev}{0.53}
2072 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.43}
2073 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
2074 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBflatqualityupBias}{0.051}
2075 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBflatqualityupCov}{96}
2076 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBflatqualityupLag}{+0.03}
2077 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBflatqualityupRev}{0.53}
2078 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBflatqualityupRmse}{1.40}
2079 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBflatqualityupShare}{100}
2080 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBheavytailsBias}{-0.005}
2081 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBheavytailsCov}{94}
2082 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBheavytailsLag}{-0.02}
2083 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBheavytailsRev}{0.89}
2084 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBheavytailsRmse}{2.16}
2085 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBheavytailsShare}{100}
2086 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.001}
2087 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
2088 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.00}
2089 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBidiosyncratictownsRev}{0.61}
2090 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.58}
2091 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
2092 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.000}
2093 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBnolocaldynamicsCov}{99}
2094 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
2095 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBnolocaldynamicsRev}{0.32}
2096 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.24}
2097 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
2098 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.044}
2099 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBrisingqualitydownCov}{96}
2100 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
2101 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBrisingqualitydownRev}{0.53}
2102 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBrisingqualitydownRmse}{1.39}
2103 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
2104 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBsparseBias}{0.001}
2105 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBsparseCov}{99}
2106 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBsparseLag}{+0.01}
2107 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBsparseRev}{0.73}
2108 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBsparseRmse}{2.24}
2109 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBsparseShare}{100}
2110 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBturningpointBias}{0.002}
2111 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBturningpointCov}{98}
2112 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBturningpointLag}{+0.01}
2113 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBturningpointRev}{0.53}
2114 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBturningpointRmse}{1.39}
2115 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoEBturningpointShare}{100}
2116 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVbaselineBias}{0.000}
2117 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVbaselineCov}{99}
2118 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVbaselineLag}{+0.00}
2119 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVbaselineRev}{0.59}
2120 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVbaselineRmse}{1.40}
2121 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVbaselineShare}{100}
2122 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.001}
2123 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVdriftinghedonicsCov}{99}
2124 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
2125 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVdriftinghedonicsRev}{0.59}
2126 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.44}
2127 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
2128 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVflatqualityupBias}{0.047}
2129 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVflatqualityupCov}{97}
2130 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVflatqualityupLag}{+0.02}
2131 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVflatqualityupRev}{0.59}
2132 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVflatqualityupRmse}{1.41}
2133 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVflatqualityupShare}{100}
2134 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVheavytailsBias}{-0.006}
2135 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVheavytailsCov}{94}
2136 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVheavytailsLag}{-0.03}
2137 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVheavytailsRev}{0.90}
2138 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVheavytailsRmse}{2.32}
2139 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVheavytailsShare}{100}
2140 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.003}
2141 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
2142 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.00}
2143 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVidiosyncratictownsRev}{0.65}
2144 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.58}
2145 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
2146 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVnolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.001}
2147 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVnolocaldynamicsCov}{99}
2148 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
2149 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVnolocaldynamicsRev}{0.33}
2150 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.23}
2151 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
2152 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.043}
2153 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVrisingqualitydownCov}{97}
2154 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
2155 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVrisingqualitydownRev}{0.59}
2156 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVrisingqualitydownRmse}{1.40}
2157 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
2158 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVsparseBias}{-0.001}
2159 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVsparseCov}{99}
2160 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVsparseLag}{+0.01}
2161 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVsparseRev}{0.81}
2162 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVsparseRmse}{2.23}
2163 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVsparseShare}{100}
2164 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVturningpointBias}{0.000}
2165 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVturningpointCov}{99}
2166 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVturningpointLag}{+0.00}
2167 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVturningpointRev}{0.59}
2168 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVturningpointRmse}{1.40}
2169 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnoTVturningpointShare}{100}
2170 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustbaselineBias}{0.001}
2171 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustbaselineCov}{99}
2172 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustbaselineLag}{+0.01}
2173 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustbaselineRev}{0.60}
2174 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustbaselineRmse}{1.70}
2175 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustbaselineShare}{100}
2176 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.001}
2177 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustdriftinghedonicsCov}{99}
2178 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.01}
2179 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustdriftinghedonicsRev}{0.61}
2180 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.74}
2181 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
2182 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustflatqualityupBias}{0.050}
2183 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustflatqualityupCov}{98}
2184 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustflatqualityupLag}{-0.02}
2185 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustflatqualityupRev}{0.60}
2186 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustflatqualityupRmse}{1.70}
2187 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustflatqualityupShare}{100}
2188 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustheavytailsBias}{-0.003}
2189 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustheavytailsCov}{98}
2190 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustheavytailsLag}{-0.02}
2191 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustheavytailsRev}{0.96}
2192 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustheavytailsRmse}{2.72}
2193 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustheavytailsShare}{100}
2194 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.003}
2195 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustidiosyncratictownsCov}{99}
2196 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustidiosyncratictownsLag}{-0.00}
2197 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustidiosyncratictownsRev}{0.67}
2198 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.84}
2199 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
2200 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustnolocaldynamicsBias}{-0.001}
2201 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustnolocaldynamicsCov}{99}
2202 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
2203 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustnolocaldynamicsRev}{0.33}
2204 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.58}
2205 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
2206 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.045}
2207 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustrisingqualitydownCov}{98}
2208 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.01}
2209 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustrisingqualitydownRev}{0.60}
2210 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustrisingqualitydownRmse}{1.70}
2211 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
2212 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustsparseBias}{0.005}
2213 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustsparseCov}{99}
2214 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustsparseLag}{+0.02}
2215 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustsparseRev}{0.81}
2216 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustsparseRmse}{2.70}
2217 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustsparseShare}{100}
2218 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustturningpointBias}{0.001}
2219 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustturningpointCov}{99}
2220 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustturningpointLag}{+0.01}
2221 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustturningpointRev}{0.60}
2222 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustturningpointRmse}{1.70}
2223 +\newcommand{\MCregionSnorobustturningpointShare}{100}
2224 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpbaselineBias}{0.002}
2225 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpbaselineCov}{99}
2226 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpbaselineLag}{+0.00}
2227 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpbaselineRev}{0.59}
2228 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpbaselineRmse}{1.40}
2229 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpbaselineShare}{100}
2230 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpdriftinghedonicsBias}{0.002}
2231 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpdriftinghedonicsCov}{99}
2232 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpdriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.00}
2233 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpdriftinghedonicsRev}{0.59}
2234 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpdriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.44}
2235 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpdriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
2236 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredbaselineBias}{0.003}
2237 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredbaselineCov}{98}
2238 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredbaselineLag}{+0.01}
2239 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredbaselineRev}{n/a}
2240 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredbaselineRmse}{1.58}
2241 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredbaselineShare}{100}
2242 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfiltereddriftinghedonicsBias}{0.003}
2243 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfiltereddriftinghedonicsCov}{98}
2244 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfiltereddriftinghedonicsLag}{+0.01}
2245 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfiltereddriftinghedonicsRev}{n/a}
2246 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfiltereddriftinghedonicsRmse}{1.62}
2247 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfiltereddriftinghedonicsShare}{100}
2248 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredflatqualityupBias}{0.052}
2249 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredflatqualityupCov}{96}
2250 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredflatqualityupLag}{+0.11}
2251 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredflatqualityupRev}{n/a}
2252 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredflatqualityupRmse}{1.58}
2253 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredflatqualityupShare}{100}
2254 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredheavytailsBias}{-0.006}
2255 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredheavytailsCov}{91}
2256 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredheavytailsLag}{+0.01}
2257 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredheavytailsRev}{n/a}
2258 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredheavytailsRmse}{2.94}
2259 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredheavytailsShare}{100}
2260 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.000}
2261 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
2262 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.02}
2263 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredidiosyncratictownsRev}{n/a}
2264 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.76}
2265 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
2266 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilterednolocaldynamicsBias}{0.002}
2267 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilterednolocaldynamicsCov}{99}
2268 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilterednolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
2269 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilterednolocaldynamicsRev}{n/a}
2270 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilterednolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.30}
2271 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilterednolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
2272 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownBias}{-0.043}
2273 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownCov}{97}
2274 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownLag}{+0.01}
2275 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownRev}{n/a}
2276 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownRmse}{1.58}
2277 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredrisingqualitydownShare}{100}
2278 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredsparseBias}{0.004}
2279 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredsparseCov}{99}
2280 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredsparseLag}{+0.06}
2281 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredsparseRev}{n/a}
2282 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredsparseRmse}{2.44}
2283 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredsparseShare}{100}
2284 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredturningpointBias}{0.003}
2285 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredturningpointCov}{98}
2286 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredturningpointLag}{+0.01}
2287 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredturningpointRev}{n/a}
2288 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredturningpointRmse}{1.58}
2289 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpfilteredturningpointShare}{100}
2290 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpflatqualityupBias}{0.051}
2291 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpflatqualityupCov}{96}
2292 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpflatqualityupLag}{+0.03}
2293 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpflatqualityupRev}{0.59}
2294 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpflatqualityupRmse}{1.41}
2295 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpflatqualityupShare}{100}
2296 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpheavytailsBias}{-0.005}
2297 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpheavytailsCov}{94}
2298 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpheavytailsLag}{-0.03}
2299 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpheavytailsRev}{0.90}
2300 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpheavytailsRmse}{2.32}
2301 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpheavytailsShare}{100}
2302 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpidiosyncratictownsBias}{-0.001}
2303 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpidiosyncratictownsCov}{98}
2304 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpidiosyncratictownsLag}{+0.00}
2305 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpidiosyncratictownsRev}{0.65}
2306 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpidiosyncratictownsRmse}{1.58}
2307 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpidiosyncratictownsShare}{100}
2308 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpnolocaldynamicsBias}{0.000}
2309 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpnolocaldynamicsCov}{99}
2310 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpnolocaldynamicsLag}{+0.00}
2311 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpnolocaldynamicsRev}{0.33}
2312 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpnolocaldynamicsRmse}{1.23}
2313 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpnolocaldynamicsShare}{100}
2314 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharprisingqualitydownBias}{-0.045}
2315 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharprisingqualitydownCov}{97}
2316 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharprisingqualitydownLag}{+0.00}
2317 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharprisingqualitydownRev}{0.59}
2318 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharprisingqualitydownRmse}{1.40}
2319 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharprisingqualitydownShare}{100}
2320 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpsparseBias}{0.000}
2321 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpsparseCov}{99}
2322 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpsparseLag}{+0.01}
2323 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpsparseRev}{0.81}
2324 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpsparseRmse}{2.24}
2325 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpsparseShare}{100}
2326 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpturningpointBias}{0.002}
2327 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpturningpointCov}{99}
2328 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpturningpointLag}{+0.00}
2329 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpturningpointRev}{0.59}
2330 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpturningpointRmse}{1.40}
2331 +\newcommand{\MCregionSsharpturningpointShare}{100}
217 2332 \newcommand{\MedianGainMuncondo}{0.25}
218 2333 \newcommand{\MedianGainMunhouse}{0.33}
219 2334 \newcommand{\MedianGainMunplex}{0.47}
@@ -439,24 +2554,24 @@
439 2554 \newcommand{\RegSdSsharpfilteredplex}{3.61}
440 2555 \newcommand{\RegSdSsharphouse}{3.75}
441 2556 \newcommand{\RegSdSsharpplex}{2.56}
442 −\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvecondomunicipality}{3.59}
2557 +\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvecondomunicipality}{2.40}
443 2558 \newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvecondoprovince}{0.25}
444 −\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvecondoregion}{1.93}
445 −\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvehousemunicipality}{2.42}
2559 +\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvecondoregion}{1.23}
2560 +\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvehousemunicipality}{2.09}
446 2561 \newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvehouseprovince}{0.13}
447 −\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvehouseregion}{2.24}
448 −\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelveplexmunicipality}{5.26}
2562 +\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelvehouseregion}{2.16}
2563 +\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelveplexmunicipality}{3.95}
449 2564 \newcommand{\RevFirstTwelveplexprovince}{0.35}
450 −\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelveplexregion}{2.05}
451 −\newcommand{\RevFirstcondomunicipality}{1.82}
2565 +\newcommand{\RevFirstTwelveplexregion}{1.55}
2566 +\newcommand{\RevFirstcondomunicipality}{0.86}
452 2567 \newcommand{\RevFirstcondoprovince}{0.16}
453 −\newcommand{\RevFirstcondoregion}{0.98}
454 −\newcommand{\RevFirsthousemunicipality}{2.31}
2568 +\newcommand{\RevFirstcondoregion}{0.48}
2569 +\newcommand{\RevFirsthousemunicipality}{1.72}
455 2570 \newcommand{\RevFirsthouseprovince}{0.16}
456 −\newcommand{\RevFirsthouseregion}{1.93}
457 −\newcommand{\RevFirstplexmunicipality}{3.03}
2571 +\newcommand{\RevFirsthouseregion}{1.62}
2572 +\newcommand{\RevFirstplexmunicipality}{1.58}
458 2573 \newcommand{\RevFirstplexprovince}{0.26}
459 −\newcommand{\RevFirstplexregion}{1.37}
2574 +\newcommand{\RevFirstplexregion}{0.76}
460 2575 \newcommand{\RollSpatialAgree}{99.96}
461 2576 \newcommand{\RtwoWithincondo}{0.63}
462 2577 \newcommand{\RtwoWithinhouse}{0.53}
added paper/tables/tab_mc_bias.tex +18 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
1 +\begin{table}[htbp]
2 +\centering\scriptsize
3 +\caption{Monte Carlo: mean bias of monthly log changes (×100) at the municipality level}\label{tab:mc_bias}
4 +\begin{threeparttable}
5 +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr}
6 +\toprule
7 +Method & baseline & turning point & flat quality up & rising quality down & drifting hedonics & heavy tails & sparse & no local dynamics & idiosyncratic towns \\
8 +\midrule
9 +Median & -0.043 & -0.043 & +0.211 & -0.282 & -0.040 & +0.093 & +0.049 & -0.043 & -0.002 \\
10 +Pooled TD (Huber) & -0.018 & -0.018 & +0.029 & -0.064 & -0.019 & -0.016 & -0.012 & -0.018 & -0.005 \\
11 +QHPI v2.1 arch. & -0.001 & -0.000 & +0.046 & -0.045 & +0.001 & -0.005 & -0.005 & -0.001 & -0.010 \\
12 +SHARP-HPI (smoothed) & +0.003 & +0.003 & +0.052 & -0.043 & +0.004 & -0.005 & +0.004 & +0.002 & -0.005 \\
13 +SHARP-HPI (filtered) & +0.001 & +0.001 & +0.050 & -0.045 & +0.002 & -0.012 & +0.008 & +0.001 & +0.005 \\
14 +\bottomrule
15 +\end{tabular}
16 +
17 +\end{threeparttable}
18 +\end{table}
added paper/tables/tab_mc_coverage.tex +20 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
1 +\begin{table}[htbp]
2 +\centering\scriptsize
3 +\caption{Monte Carlo: empirical coverage (\%) of nominal 95\% intervals for municipal index levels}\label{tab:mc_coverage}
4 +\begin{threeparttable}
5 +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr}
6 +\toprule
7 +Method & baseline & turning point & flat quality up & rising quality down & drifting hedonics & heavy tails & sparse & no local dynamics & idiosyncratic towns \\
8 +\midrule
9 +Pooled TD (Huber) & 97 & 97 & 97 & 97 & 97 & 97 & 96 & 97 & 97 \\
10 +QHPI v2.1 arch. & 89 & 89 & 87 & 87 & 89 & 83 & 89 & 90 & 89 \\
11 +SHARP-HPI (smoothed) & 98 & 98 & 97 & 98 & 98 & 92 & 99 & 99 & 96 \\
12 +SHARP-HPI (filtered) & 97 & 97 & 96 & 96 & 97 & 89 & 98 & 98 & 95 \\
13 +SHARP: no EB pooling of $\tau^2$ & 97 & 97 & 96 & 96 & 98 & 91 & 98 & 99 & 93 \\
14 +SHARP: local linear trend & 97 & 97 & 96 & 96 & 97 & 90 & 97 & 98 & 93 \\
15 +SHARP: Gaussian & 98 & 98 & 97 & 97 & 98 & 92 & 98 & 98 & 97 \\
16 +\bottomrule
17 +\end{tabular}
18 +
19 +\end{threeparttable}
20 +\end{table}
added paper/tables/tab_mc_lag.tex +22 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
1 +\begin{table}[htbp]
2 +\centering\small
3 +\caption{Monte Carlo: timing diagnostics at the municipality level}\label{tab:mc_lag}
4 +\begin{threeparttable}
5 +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrr}
6 +\toprule
7 +Scenario & Reps & SHARP lag (months) & SHARP revision RMSE & QHPI lag & sec./rep \\
8 +\midrule
9 +baseline & 80 & +0.01 & 2.36 & +0.01 & — \\
10 +turning point & 80 & +0.00 & 2.36 & +0.02 & — \\
11 +flat quality up & 80 & +0.01 & 2.37 & +0.03 & — \\
12 +rising quality down & 80 & +0.01 & 2.37 & +0.02 & — \\
13 +drifting hedonics & 80 & +0.01 & 2.39 & +0.01 & — \\
14 +heavy tails & 80 & -0.01 & 4.80 & -0.00 & — \\
15 +sparse & 80 & +0.02 & 3.16 & +0.01 & — \\
16 +no local dynamics & 80 & +0.00 & 2.20 & -0.00 & — \\
17 +idiosyncratic towns & 80 & +0.02 & 3.10 & -0.00 & — \\
18 +\bottomrule
19 +\end{tabular}
20 +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Lag = argmax of the cross-correlation between estimated and true 3-month changes (negative = estimate lags). Revision RMSE = RMSE between filtered (real-time) and smoothed monthly changes (×100).\end{tablenotes}
21 +\end{threeparttable}
22 +\end{table}
added paper/tables/tab_mc_rmse_municipality.tex +27 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
1 +\begin{table}[htbp]
2 +\centering\scriptsize
3 +\caption{Monte Carlo: RMSE of monthly log changes (×100) at the municipality level, by scenario (Monte Carlo standard error in parentheses)}\label{tab:mc_rmse_municipality}
4 +\begin{threeparttable}
5 +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr}
6 +\toprule
7 +Method & baseline & turning point & flat quality up & rising quality down & drifting hedonics & heavy tails & sparse & no local dynamics & idiosyncratic towns \\
8 +\midrule
9 +Median & 24.28 (0.16) & 24.28 (0.16) & 24.71 (0.16) & 23.95 (0.16) & 25.89 (0.17) & 27.37 (0.22) & 29.43 (0.13) & 24.28 (0.16) & 24.38 (0.15) \\
10 +Stratified median & 6.01 (0.02) & 6.02 (0.02) & 6.00 (0.02) & 6.00 (0.02) & 6.25 (0.02) & 7.60 (0.03) & 5.57 (0.03) & 5.97 (0.02) & 6.16 (0.02) \\
11 +Pooled TD (Huber) & 12.52 (0.10) & 12.52 (0.10) & 12.55 (0.10) & 12.54 (0.10) & 13.01 (0.11) & 15.15 (0.16) & 15.24 (0.14) & 12.52 (0.10) & 12.57 (0.11) \\
12 +Rolling TD 13 m & 7.48 (0.10) & 7.48 (0.10) & 7.50 (0.10) & 7.48 (0.10) & 7.75 (0.10) & 8.14 (0.13) & 7.84 (0.19) & 7.48 (0.10) & 7.48 (0.10) \\
13 +Repeat sales & 39.26 (0.45) & 39.23 (0.46) & 39.08 (0.44) & 39.80 (0.47) & 39.49 (0.45) & 51.70 (0.99) & 42.97 (0.84) & 39.25 (0.45) & 39.17 (0.42) \\
14 +QHPI v2.1 arch. & 2.91 (0.05) & 2.91 (0.05) & 2.90 (0.05) & 2.91 (0.05) & 2.93 (0.05) & 7.89 (0.07) & 3.57 (0.04) & 2.84 (0.05) & 3.30 (0.04) \\
15 +SHARP-HPI (smoothed) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.62 (0.02) & 4.62 (0.08) & 2.40 (0.04) & 1.35 (0.02) & 2.52 (0.02) \\
16 +SHARP-HPI (filtered) & 3.02 (0.04) & 3.02 (0.04) & 3.02 (0.04) & 3.02 (0.04) & 3.06 (0.04) & 8.23 (0.10) & 4.17 (0.06) & 2.73 (0.04) & 4.24 (0.03) \\
17 +SHARP: no EB pooling of $\tau^2$ & 1.62 (0.02) & 1.62 (0.02) & 1.62 (0.02) & 1.62 (0.02) & 1.66 (0.02) & 4.51 (0.08) & 2.45 (0.04) & 1.40 (0.02) & 2.55 (0.02) \\
18 +SHARP: fixed quality prices & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.61 (0.02) & 4.62 (0.08) & 2.40 (0.04) & 1.35 (0.02) & 2.52 (0.02) \\
19 +SHARP: local linear trend & 1.61 (0.02) & 1.61 (0.02) & 1.61 (0.02) & 1.61 (0.02) & 1.65 (0.02) & 4.95 (0.08) & 2.45 (0.04) & 1.40 (0.02) & 2.51 (0.02) \\
20 +SHARP: Gaussian & 2.25 (0.04) & 2.25 (0.04) & 2.24 (0.04) & 2.23 (0.04) & 2.29 (0.04) & 6.77 (0.09) & 3.21 (0.05) & 2.13 (0.04) & 2.84 (0.03) \\
21 +SHARP: municipality-level location FE & 2.05 (0.04) & 2.05 (0.04) & 2.05 (0.04) & 2.05 (0.04) & 2.08 (0.04) & 2.84 (0.06) & 3.30 (0.08) & 1.88 (0.04) & 2.81 (0.03) \\
22 +SHARP: stock-weighted bottom-up & — & — & — & — & — & — & — & — & — \\
23 +\bottomrule
24 +\end{tabular}
25 +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Averages over cells and replications; see Table~\ref{tab:mc_design} for the scenarios. Lower is better; the final two scenarios are the deliberate counter-examples.\end{tablenotes}
26 +\end{threeparttable}
27 +\end{table}
added paper/tables/tab_mc_rmse_province.tex +27 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
1 +\begin{table}[htbp]
2 +\centering\scriptsize
3 +\caption{Monte Carlo: RMSE of monthly log changes (×100) at the province level, by scenario (Monte Carlo standard error in parentheses)}\label{tab:mc_rmse_province}
4 +\begin{threeparttable}
5 +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr}
6 +\toprule
7 +Method & baseline & turning point & flat quality up & rising quality down & drifting hedonics & heavy tails & sparse & no local dynamics & idiosyncratic towns \\
8 +\midrule
9 +Median & 3.56 (0.08) & 3.56 (0.08) & 3.62 (0.08) & 3.55 (0.08) & 3.69 (0.08) & 3.59 (0.09) & 6.07 (0.13) & 3.56 (0.08) & 3.62 (0.08) \\
10 +Stratified median & 3.08 (0.07) & 3.08 (0.07) & 3.13 (0.08) & 3.06 (0.07) & 3.14 (0.07) & 3.11 (0.08) & 5.21 (0.13) & 3.07 (0.07) & 3.15 (0.09) \\
11 +Pooled TD (Huber) & 1.24 (0.02) & 1.24 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.24 (0.02) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.24 (0.02) & 2.13 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
12 +Rolling TD 13 m & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.40 (0.03) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.44 (0.03) & 1.41 (0.03) & 2.36 (0.05) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.44 (0.03) \\
13 +Repeat sales & 5.32 (0.10) & 5.32 (0.10) & 5.33 (0.10) & 5.33 (0.10) & 5.37 (0.10) & 7.42 (0.17) & 9.57 (0.21) & 5.28 (0.10) & 5.66 (0.13) \\
14 +QHPI v2.1 arch. & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.40 (0.03) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.44 (0.03) & 1.41 (0.03) & 2.36 (0.05) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.44 (0.03) \\
15 +SHARP-HPI (smoothed) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.03) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.02) & 2.14 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
16 +SHARP-HPI (filtered) & — & — & — & — & — & — & — & — & — \\
17 +SHARP: no EB pooling of $\tau^2$ & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.03) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.02) & 2.14 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
18 +SHARP: fixed quality prices & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.26 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.03) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.02) & 2.13 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
19 +SHARP: local linear trend & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.03) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.02) & 2.14 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
20 +SHARP: Gaussian & 1.59 (0.03) & 1.59 (0.03) & 1.59 (0.03) & 1.59 (0.03) & 1.63 (0.03) & 2.25 (0.05) & 2.62 (0.05) & 1.57 (0.03) & 1.68 (0.04) \\
21 +SHARP: municipality-level location FE & 1.88 (0.04) & 1.88 (0.04) & 1.88 (0.04) & 1.88 (0.04) & 1.92 (0.05) & 1.96 (0.05) & 3.18 (0.09) & 1.87 (0.04) & 1.96 (0.05) \\
22 +SHARP: stock-weighted bottom-up & 1.26 (0.02) & 1.26 (0.02) & 1.27 (0.02) & 1.26 (0.03) & 1.31 (0.03) & 1.75 (0.04) & 2.15 (0.04) & 1.23 (0.02) & 1.40 (0.03) \\
23 +\bottomrule
24 +\end{tabular}
25 +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Averages over cells and replications; see Table~\ref{tab:mc_design} for the scenarios. Lower is better; the final two scenarios are the deliberate counter-examples.\end{tablenotes}
26 +\end{threeparttable}
27 +\end{table}
added paper/tables/tab_mc_rmse_region.tex +27 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
1 +\begin{table}[htbp]
2 +\centering\scriptsize
3 +\caption{Monte Carlo: RMSE of monthly log changes (×100) at the region level, by scenario (Monte Carlo standard error in parentheses)}\label{tab:mc_rmse_region}
4 +\begin{threeparttable}
5 +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr}
6 +\toprule
7 +Method & baseline & turning point & flat quality up & rising quality down & drifting hedonics & heavy tails & sparse & no local dynamics & idiosyncratic towns \\
8 +\midrule
9 +Median & 7.24 (0.16) & 7.24 (0.16) & 7.34 (0.16) & 7.19 (0.16) & 7.56 (0.16) & 7.34 (0.17) & 12.37 (0.26) & 7.20 (0.15) & 7.49 (0.14) \\
10 +Stratified median & 6.03 (0.13) & 6.03 (0.13) & 6.12 (0.13) & 6.09 (0.14) & 6.18 (0.14) & 6.35 (0.14) & 9.12 (0.16) & 6.01 (0.13) & 6.47 (0.13) \\
11 +Pooled TD (Huber) & 2.63 (0.04) & 2.63 (0.04) & 2.64 (0.04) & 2.63 (0.04) & 2.73 (0.04) & 2.56 (0.04) & 4.64 (0.07) & 2.61 (0.04) & 2.89 (0.05) \\
12 +Rolling TD 13 m & 2.99 (0.05) & 2.99 (0.05) & 3.00 (0.05) & 2.99 (0.05) & 3.10 (0.05) & 2.99 (0.05) & 5.45 (0.09) & 2.99 (0.05) & 3.11 (0.05) \\
13 +Repeat sales & 12.03 (0.21) & 12.03 (0.21) & 12.05 (0.21) & 12.04 (0.20) & 12.18 (0.21) & 15.80 (0.30) & 22.22 (0.39) & 12.00 (0.21) & 12.59 (0.22) \\
14 +QHPI v2.1 arch. & 1.17 (0.01) & 1.23 (0.01) & 0.84 (0.01) & 1.25 (0.01) & 1.19 (0.01) & 1.21 (0.01) & 2.14 (0.06) & 1.08 (0.01) & 1.27 (0.01) \\
15 +SHARP-HPI (smoothed) & 1.40 (0.02) & 1.40 (0.02) & 1.41 (0.02) & 1.40 (0.02) & 1.44 (0.02) & 2.32 (0.06) & 2.24 (0.04) & 1.23 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.03) \\
16 +SHARP-HPI (filtered) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.02) & 1.62 (0.02) & 2.94 (0.07) & 2.44 (0.04) & 1.30 (0.02) & 1.76 (0.03) \\
17 +SHARP: no EB pooling of $\tau^2$ & 1.39 (0.02) & 1.39 (0.02) & 1.40 (0.02) & 1.39 (0.02) & 1.43 (0.02) & 2.16 (0.06) & 2.24 (0.04) & 1.24 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.03) \\
18 +SHARP: fixed quality prices & 1.40 (0.02) & 1.40 (0.02) & 1.41 (0.02) & 1.40 (0.02) & 1.44 (0.02) & 2.32 (0.06) & 2.23 (0.04) & 1.23 (0.02) & 1.58 (0.03) \\
19 +SHARP: local linear trend & 1.39 (0.02) & 1.39 (0.02) & 1.40 (0.02) & 1.39 (0.02) & 1.43 (0.02) & 2.34 (0.06) & 2.23 (0.04) & 1.23 (0.02) & 1.57 (0.03) \\
20 +SHARP: Gaussian & 1.70 (0.03) & 1.70 (0.03) & 1.70 (0.03) & 1.70 (0.03) & 1.74 (0.03) & 2.72 (0.07) & 2.70 (0.05) & 1.58 (0.03) & 1.84 (0.03) \\
21 +SHARP: municipality-level location FE & 1.97 (0.04) & 1.97 (0.04) & 1.97 (0.04) & 1.97 (0.04) & 2.01 (0.04) & 2.18 (0.06) & 3.24 (0.08) & 1.87 (0.04) & 2.11 (0.04) \\
22 +SHARP: stock-weighted bottom-up & — & — & — & — & — & — & — & — & — \\
23 +\bottomrule
24 +\end{tabular}
25 +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Averages over cells and replications; see Table~\ref{tab:mc_design} for the scenarios. Lower is better; the final two scenarios are the deliberate counter-examples.\end{tablenotes}
26 +\end{threeparttable}
27 +\end{table}
modified paper/tables/tab_revisions.tex +6 −6
@@ -7,14 +7,14 @@
7 7 Class / level & Rel. 1 & Rel. 2 & Rel. 3 & Rel. 6 & Rel. 12 & 12-m change, rel. 1 & \% $|$rev$|>1$ pt \\
8 8 \midrule
9 9 house / province & 0.16 & 0.17 & 0.16 & 0.15 & 0.15 & 0.13 & 0 \\
10 −house / region & 1.93 & 1.95 & 1.96 & 1.91 & 1.94 & 2.24 & 53 \\
11 −house / municipality & 2.31 & 2.31 & 2.33 & 2.35 & 2.43 & 2.42 & 65 \\
10 +house / region & 1.62 & 1.56 & 1.57 & 1.51 & 1.59 & 2.16 & 44 \\
11 +house / municipality & 1.72 & 1.61 & 1.59 & 1.55 & 1.62 & 2.09 & 54 \\
12 12 condo / province & 0.16 & 0.16 & 0.16 & 0.17 & 0.16 & 0.25 & 0 \\
13 −condo / region & 0.98 & 0.98 & 1.00 & 1.04 & 0.98 & 1.93 & 34 \\
14 −condo / municipality & 1.82 & 1.83 & 1.83 & 1.88 & 1.87 & 3.59 & 54 \\
13 +condo / region & 0.48 & 0.43 & 0.43 & 0.43 & 0.39 & 1.23 & 12 \\
14 +condo / municipality & 0.86 & 0.78 & 0.74 & 0.73 & 0.66 & 2.40 & 27 \\
15 15 plex / province & 0.26 & 0.25 & 0.26 & 0.27 & 0.24 & 0.35 & 0 \\
16 −plex / region & 1.37 & 1.38 & 1.36 & 1.35 & 1.41 & 2.05 & 53 \\
17 −plex / municipality & 3.03 & 3.03 & 3.03 & 3.05 & 3.00 & 5.26 & 73 \\
16 +plex / region & 0.76 & 0.64 & 0.59 & 0.57 & 0.61 & 1.55 & 26 \\
17 +plex / municipality & 1.58 & 1.42 & 1.35 & 1.29 & 1.27 & 3.95 & 48 \\
18 18 \bottomrule
19 19 \end{tabular}
20 20 \begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Releases simulated monthly from July 2022 to October 2026 with a 10-day publication delay; municipalities with at least 1,500 sales. Final = smoothed full-sample panel.\end{tablenotes}
added paper/tables/tab_revisions_frozen.tex +22 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
1 +\begin{table}[htbp]
2 +\centering\footnotesize
3 +\caption{Frozen-first-release (one-sided filtered) policy: mean absolute gap of the monthly log change (×100) between the real-time value and the final smoothed estimate}\label{tab:revisions_frozen}
4 +\begin{threeparttable}
5 +\begin{tabular}{lrrrr}
6 +\toprule
7 +Class / level & Rel. 1 vs final & Rel. 12 vs final & 12-m change, rel. 1 & Rel. 1 vs last real-time \\
8 +\midrule
9 +house / province & 0.16 & 0.15 & 0.13 & 0.16 \\
10 +house / region & 1.93 & 1.94 & 2.24 & 1.78 \\
11 +house / municipality & 2.31 & 2.43 & 2.42 & 1.61 \\
12 +condo / province & 0.16 & 0.16 & 0.25 & 0.16 \\
13 +condo / region & 0.98 & 0.98 & 1.93 & 0.61 \\
14 +condo / municipality & 1.82 & 1.87 & 3.59 & 1.07 \\
15 +plex / province & 0.26 & 0.24 & 0.35 & 0.26 \\
16 +plex / region & 1.37 & 1.41 & 2.05 & 0.86 \\
17 +plex / municipality & 3.03 & 3.00 & 5.26 & 1.99 \\
18 +\bottomrule
19 +\end{tabular}
20 +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Under this policy a month's value changes only through stage-1 re-estimation; the gap to the final series is the price of never revising (filter versus smoother), and it does not decline with later releases.\end{tablenotes}
21 +\end{threeparttable}
22 +\end{table}
added results/simulation/summary.csv +478 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,478 @@
1 +scenario,method,level,cells,reps,rmse_ret,mae_ret,bias_ret,rmse_lvl,cov95,cov95_ret,corr_ret,lag_xcorr,revision_rmse,share_est,secs,rmse_ret_mcse,bias_ret_mcse,rmse_lvl_mcse,cov95_mcse
2 +baseline,S_LLT,mrc,12.0,80,0.014513113819134876,0.01150355982064428,0.000025966266502527645,0.015169438655194356,0.9724479166666666,0.9988524011299434,0.618674904112949,0.0010416666666666667,0.01831700855640733,1.0,,0.00021400126275666342,0.00003731708402763646,0.00017514826150822436,0.0012386783513900835
3 +baseline,S_sharp,mrc,12.0,80,0.014605799321126328,0.011589915130972281,0.00002514115531258226,0.014891299038037518,0.9819444444444445,0.9994526836158192,0.6201845357073686,0.0010416666666666667,0.01107826563452112,1.0,,0.00021551793423144527,0.00003654772626977688,0.00017464108954526553,0.0009492205700345215
4 +baseline,S_noTV,mrc,12.0,80,0.01460770549535298,0.011589751397715065,0.00001529973880103845,0.01487190371030066,0.9816145833333334,0.9994350282485875,0.6200560091378575,0.0,0.011076104614760997,1.0,,0.00021528214593427358,0.000036000141652039424,0.00017340480600232277,0.0009412264942077335
5 +baseline,S_noEB,mrc,12.0,80,0.014622675089077237,0.011600389920437828,0.000026238616506327612,0.015132009040579533,0.9740104166666667,0.9990112994350282,0.6179348320824889,-0.003125,0.01050039247673299,1.0,,0.00021454532986910194,0.00003700417936820591,0.00017780149698259437,0.0012119627153377645
6 +baseline,S_norobust,mrc,12.0,80,0.017688845220717005,0.01395465957460105,0.000018348041757797054,0.016472618946644462,0.9880555555555555,0.9990289548022598,0.5459867396788944,0.0010416666666666669,0.01223841562438747,1.0,,0.0002900443617238205,0.000042148175086605516,0.00021072530579056416,0.0008424402756666626
7 +baseline,K_qhpi,mrc,12.0,80,0.018484193463712967,0.014678138652682077,-0.000027592967494485795,0.019288883189992626,0.8742534722222223,0.9603107344632769,0.5198162493605771,6.938893903907229e-19,,1.0,,0.00034468205949764256,0.00003693437708746401,0.00031273679466574226,0.004011097772484992
8 +baseline,S_sharp_filtered,mrc,12.0,80,0.019370547538120054,0.015068761367110838,0.00003195111232912047,0.02036973179887484,0.9702604166666667,0.9986052259887005,0.5307671332188557,0.04375,,1.0,,0.00026129360240056835,0.00004797756510045512,0.0002711807903660172,0.0010957016889253381
9 +baseline,S_coarseloc,mrc,12.0,80,0.020147041504940517,0.015768210813789006,0.00011070907373949182,0.01853866986285089,0.98671875,0.9979166666666666,0.4944002586345162,0.011458333333333333,0.013076881545571203,1.0,,0.0004164047124550452,0.00005310666572647908,0.00028774616903301395,0.001022545956995307
10 +baseline,C_pooled_td,mrc,12.0,80,0.05400356494437021,0.04139706209514106,0.00004025395444462962,0.03831944168977412,0.9783443332379589,0.9940226569487628,0.284268318324086,0.02291666666666667,,0.9993055555555556,,0.0008578893973480193,0.00005338217902961887,0.000605581311430648,0.00030212740871728226
11 +baseline,D_rtd13,mrc,11.2875,80,0.05917304813052898,0.04545988966096976,0.000028137471990010686,0.04270878321845929,,,0.26191428558881574,-0.042411616161616164,,0.9998892045454545,,0.0008548463490173445,0.00005840333977526823,0.0006060144550823392,
12 +baseline,B_stratified,mrc,12.0,80,0.08467449135481553,0.06667347693881638,0.0001121338506202815,0.06522185139279843,,,0.16652356930148884,0.03958333333333334,,0.996857638888889,,0.0008610878225240404,0.00007339058079740892,0.0007077406753411401,
13 +baseline,A_median,mrc,12.0,80,0.1299928045690438,0.1010042340969924,-0.0000105838545564354,0.0922352263111405,,,0.12786388555395956,0.053125,,0.9993055555555556,,0.0020160391331075196,0.00012100040230492695,0.0014327679664532889,
14 +baseline,H_repeat_sales,mrc,12.0,80,0.25160886557020123,0.19107342560582533,-0.0003847649209769692,0.17906817990805893,,,0.06225837063868549,-0.057499999999999996,,0.9325520833333334,,0.003493542497542152,0.0004349139351770073,0.002545423047771918,
15 +baseline,S_sharp,municipality,60.0,80,0.015767583366925075,0.012504440634791072,0.000027787239995214433,0.022267671324836764,0.9838055555555556,0.9998764124293785,0.5933814590456945,0.0060416666666666665,0.023648978529205895,1.0,,0.00021809208535830373,0.00004014949855295353,0.0003339941299079501,0.0006090298275396282
16 +baseline,S_noTV,municipality,60.0,80,0.01578150824266774,0.012513211563928145,0.00001816141993945365,0.022279741034473128,0.9837430555555555,0.9998658192090396,0.5930988752296005,0.004583333333333333,0.023666678675871432,1.0,,0.0002179602904365813,0.00003972076149357516,0.00033333796505387444,0.0006151845881302979
17 +baseline,S_LLT,municipality,60.0,80,0.016092097792137893,0.012740830061633198,0.0000336933082123361,0.02825596396421477,0.9674305555555556,0.9997669491525423,0.5877278135425902,0.009375,0.04570115383649295,1.0,,0.0002159579024704687,0.00004597944269768983,0.0004340550304747036,0.0008997433586438193
18 +baseline,S_noEB,municipality,60.0,80,0.016182591187484083,0.012821917314294972,0.000027247448416850393,0.023882126490996212,0.9749236111111111,0.9997139830508475,0.585877985772756,0.007291666666666666,0.023746687160629297,1.0,,0.00021375177862183536,0.000041729471396639964,0.0003430354488044203,0.000795725693071329
19 +baseline,S_coarseloc,municipality,60.0,80,0.02045659134718862,0.016032373621684633,0.00010692589497120942,0.020958627534755685,0.9940520833333334,0.9995727401129944,0.48128686756764927,0.014583333333333334,0.026703889317457662,1.0,,0.0004081843009769978,0.00005076350047581947,0.000248521101243998,0.0003246605927103843
20 +baseline,S_norobust,municipality,60.0,80,0.022451113324421526,0.017323131843697322,0.00003853791639300957,0.030283038031646548,0.9795138888888889,0.9982803672316385,0.4956707092774163,0.005833333333333334,0.030366838522902867,1.0,,0.00037571698571372967,0.00004995930971391265,0.0005612274921039576,0.0006943477429155293
21 +baseline,K_qhpi,municipality,60.0,80,0.02912435158080009,0.022103731307768125,-8.590343876137581e-6,0.04250209129038594,0.8857777777777777,0.9753672316384181,0.45860793964954283,0.014791666666666667,,1.0,,0.0004618386848896121,0.00004747280612578862,0.0006233292187931513,0.0021228403621829433
22 +baseline,S_sharp_filtered,municipality,60.0,80,0.030152879628772167,0.020591640129909577,0.000010466624616440565,0.03973358339206013,0.9686319444444444,0.9989477401129943,0.4012894676884747,0.11458333333333333,,1.0,,0.0003724900294663904,0.00006185021210181865,0.0005354064024768421,0.000716999654839423
23 +baseline,B_stratified,municipality,49.1875,80,0.06006046765694238,0.04508118376622745,-0.00009665655373670938,0.0653353724602559,,,0.10513064463889607,0.4210204451833238,,0.9679143623352203,,0.00018699782703210897,0.000037700498346550314,0.0002297481446944421,
24 +baseline,D_rtd13,municipality,11.8375,80,0.07476283438807321,0.05671572155281137,0.000018144954175337207,0.05398721074972035,,,0.21447958425782915,0.000684394241379533,,0.9994519916188114,,0.0009692166139521838,0.00005928587886621716,0.0006597109469135316,
25 +baseline,C_pooled_td,municipality,39.2625,80,0.1252188152832185,0.0924427380603682,-0.00017885873604604475,0.08980898457869561,0.9677307837932808,0.9830416220664222,0.14909010517492638,0.009311205703654865,,0.9565275781612005,,0.0010064267605421888,0.00011918031284983386,0.0006855176040788598,0.0003902054629756159
26 +baseline,A_median,municipality,60.0,80,0.24275115114555348,0.19000019532092757,-0.0004303374215955661,0.17293378571644794,,,0.07338842769004708,-0.0021587023750580365,,0.815420138888889,,0.0016306233554351914,0.0006524609448272029,0.001163957125309774,
27 +baseline,H_repeat_sales,municipality,60.0,80,0.3926462753971506,0.3052504790177827,0.00010963847857366543,0.27651605989195327,,,0.033540304078117776,-0.09769063626837013,,0.3024444444444444,,0.004541735387945538,0.0008704469525744211,0.002924998784007821,
28 +baseline,C_pooled_td,province,1.0,80,0.012424617420623316,0.009745330868391805,6.429501457506367e-7,0.008796330745568246,0.9806250000000001,0.9970338983050848,0.7063362464009889,0.0,,1.0,0.6011751800775528,0.0002475761799787347,0.00003173756523305051,0.0001651555780300901,0.0008089116640083608
29 +baseline,S_sharp,province,1.0,80,0.012474238074506542,0.00978775662110408,0.000010686954839893348,0.008848463830013049,0.9806250000000001,0.9972457627118644,0.7048748240104885,0.0,,1.0,2.6359437197446822,0.0002488263404219064,0.0000320527959359459,0.0001672431165427482,0.0008089116640083607
30 +baseline,S_noEB,province,1.0,80,0.012474238074506542,0.00978775662110408,0.00001068695483989335,0.008848463830013049,0.9806250000000001,0.9972457627118644,0.7048748240104885,0.0,,1.0,2.3591555297374724,0.0002488263404219064,0.00003205279593594589,0.00016724311654274805,0.0008089116640083601
31 +baseline,S_LLT,province,1.0,80,0.012474238074506542,0.00978775662110408,0.000010686954839893348,0.008848463830013049,0.9806250000000001,0.9972457627118644,0.7048748240104885,0.0,,1.0,15.270315244793892,0.0002488263404219064,0.00003205279593594589,0.00016724311654274813,0.0008089116640083582
32 +baseline,S_noTV,province,1.0,80,0.01247788424931105,0.009785574434437826,1.0556835306875045e-7,0.00883238501072054,0.9808333333333333,0.9972457627118644,0.7047020681236955,0.0,,1.0,2.668670988082886,0.0002484544431242729,0.0000318361181982849,0.00016595977805587193,0.0007900132634326047
33 +baseline,S_sharp_bottomup,province,1.0,80,0.012641800624443436,0.009931788244530455,0.000012240064984916655,0.009218023589517173,,,0.7003148237342259,0.0,,1.0,,0.0002483517836196716,0.000034886587165275566,0.00017203379376179518,
34 +baseline,D_rtd13,province,1.0,80,0.013914067442239808,0.010857995506017319,-0.00002642076226693264,0.010055530504417466,,,0.6694417947971305,0.0,,1.0,6.439088591933251,0.0002788929163027603,0.00003838980035991135,0.00019233980642260423,
35 +baseline,K_qhpi,province,1.0,80,0.013914067442239808,0.010857995506017319,-0.00002642076226693264,0.010055530504417466,,,0.6694417947971305,0.0,,1.0,6.568549185991287,0.0002788929163027602,0.00003838980035991135,0.00019233980642260423,
36 +baseline,S_norobust,province,1.0,80,0.0158689990571298,0.012420166728756165,-2.6175337424784776e-6,0.011170690851616599,0.9808333333333333,0.9972457627118644,0.6150417067919816,0.0,,1.0,1.7581250101327897,0.0003074568836269114,0.000040273987420940435,0.00020226657807477985,0.0006695612266902239
37 +baseline,S_coarseloc,province,1.0,80,0.018753905217264135,0.014579574565887054,0.0000927790924799411,0.013394088251267455,0.9804166666666667,0.9955508474576271,0.5612967611671359,0.0,,1.0,2.652030420303345,0.0004443467958474379,0.00005018300298875126,0.0003198813091666877,0.0007124939854657648
38 +baseline,E_fisher_chained,province,1.0,80,0.021149408252854322,0.01642836728470508,2.0218299880615156e-6,0.0180165930755218,,,0.5110613664939041,0.0125,,1.0,5.106732937693596,0.00047098617051218397,0.00007112097543465064,0.0005194747434755314,
39 +baseline,B_stratified,province,1.0,80,0.030775052536997555,0.024056527458482364,0.0002377177901692239,0.022174154759761346,,,0.38997229106569364,0.05,,1.0,0.02190931439399719,0.0007200383897527102,0.00008166933162587893,0.0005253135422176184,
40 +baseline,A_median,province,1.0,80,0.03561022392223612,0.027962339142070015,0.00009881295631894466,0.025596197429553758,,,0.3415993257106822,0.1375,,1.0,0.0073881596326828,0.0007938983458593675,0.00010582763603244672,0.0005671147447246734,
41 +baseline,H_repeat_sales,province,1.0,80,0.05322541043985056,0.04095704364236959,-0.00006682526068718409,0.0372621726499552,,,0.2164686276115007,-0.025,,1.0,0.058115845918655394,0.0009941041167210183,0.00016289973753657325,0.0006939940820446875,
42 +baseline,K_qhpi,region,4.0,80,0.01172220863326712,0.009385507129555517,-0.00006387798837239349,0.011112782795942067,0.9355208333333334,0.9820974576271186,0.5887996705298236,-0.021875,,1.0,,0.00011500258950488282,0.00002424770081629551,0.00012125847643879751,0.00222485436042575
43 +baseline,S_LLT,region,4.0,80,0.013907890377218268,0.011011313910702468,0.00002162501072437644,0.012131835792265951,0.9836458333333333,0.9983580508474577,0.6423694067722521,0.00625,0.00817156627000645,1.0,,0.0002192987215775729,0.00003657930639221806,0.00016998226745097372,0.001176119686011074
44 +baseline,S_noEB,region,4.0,80,0.013941926087476176,0.011042028143162637,0.000016995077306195397,0.012082799771049379,0.9838020833333333,0.9985699152542373,0.6422665310721158,0.003125,0.005264082740635426,1.0,,0.00022005347356403404,0.00003535097928792445,0.0001668189893862845,0.0011338284386017763
45 +baseline,S_sharp,region,4.0,80,0.013989786869140841,0.011079688385874715,0.000015211994380267537,0.01208605621950493,0.98703125,0.9989406779661018,0.6434850862151739,0.003125,0.005868524630210708,1.0,,0.00022104569117695368,0.00003537823513868461,0.0001660361965499059,0.0009433966864097917
46 +baseline,S_noTV,region,4.0,80,0.013993298459806656,0.01108031813633217,4.921046085858313e-6,0.012076648752689881,0.9869791666666666,0.9988877118644067,0.6433175122455891,0.003125,0.0058711030967631295,1.0,,0.00022079583270683,0.00003507209689586514,0.00016530641074370166,0.0009474101152679092
47 +baseline,S_sharp_filtered,region,4.0,80,0.015791871531900557,0.012554474204668115,0.000025809514007279112,0.013958074654676573,0.9845312500000001,0.9978813559322035,0.6076518798244609,0.00625,,1.0,,0.00024054389502932105,0.00003754482045391547,0.00020702574612419135,0.0009949816669129995
48 +baseline,S_norobust,region,4.0,80,0.016973232172239106,0.01336219813802938,7.452014072557975e-6,0.013607381289341528,0.990625,0.998728813559322,0.5670088619516698,0.00625,0.005966470017251005,1.0,,0.00028384431166480546,0.00004144397810413798,0.00019752687418720085,0.0007931365435110185
49 +baseline,S_coarseloc,region,4.0,80,0.019696544314659357,0.015394533821234586,0.00010157310690530846,0.01595836105868235,0.9884375000000001,0.9962923728813559,0.5125452674801534,0.003125,0.006069651845100096,1.0,,0.00041866419604015575,0.00005176093233147738,0.0003019543903560494,0.0009998873661954937
50 +baseline,C_pooled_td,region,4.0,80,0.026292746989195814,0.02047792181374269,0.000025578849888536705,0.018640569930321538,0.9795833333333333,0.9953389830508474,0.4725966338132389,-0.0125,,1.0,,0.00039998088338834715,0.00003567175348963209,0.00027761252421387863,0.00041666666666666637
51 +baseline,D_rtd13,region,4.0,80,0.029905351032948547,0.023235662315547915,9.691230600237133e-7,0.021460267851450512,,,0.4321712013677634,-0.028125,,1.0,,0.0004789058884180158,0.0000428798682485681,0.00033341801720700246,
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53 +baseline,A_median,region,4.0,80,0.07242324664816283,0.056500341759534,0.0001083012842114878,0.05137977772365278,,,0.2096089075152149,0.14375,,1.0,,0.0015669153082677658,0.00009534283339530116,0.0010728600606646581,
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183 +heavy_tails,S_sharp_filtered,municipality,59.9875,80,0.08228510232405047,0.061152628062350146,-0.0001177508646189091,0.08238261066413899,0.8943536370056497,0.9461901512975199,0.19402917602254668,0.06458686440677966,,1.0,,0.001000763696112232,0.00007368317798364924,0.0008459604824132175,0.0012488964004931217
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430 +turning_point,S_norobust,mrc,12.0,80,0.01768884522071703,0.013954659574601078,0.00001834804175784795,0.016472618946644473,0.9880555555555555,0.9990289548022598,0.6030304640709935,0.002083333333333333,0.01223841562438746,1.0,,0.00029004436172382173,0.000042148175086604866,0.00021072530579056828,0.0008424402756666642
431 +turning_point,K_qhpi,mrc,12.0,80,0.018659410110567674,0.014817959610601469,0.00002338021316903313,0.019420263324822766,0.8758506944444445,0.9603283898305085,0.5812027200310089,-0.015625,,1.0,,0.00033805369846594377,0.00003709809861517092,0.0003086084596869081,0.004121257909222237
432 +turning_point,S_sharp_filtered,mrc,12.0,80,0.019370547538120078,0.015068761367110859,0.000031951112329129816,0.020369731798874878,0.9702604166666667,0.9986052259887005,0.583762917291339,0.057291666666666664,,1.0,,0.00026129360240056775,0.00004797756510045754,0.0002711807903660175,0.0010957016889253403
433 +turning_point,S_coarseloc,mrc,12.0,80,0.020147041504941437,0.015768210813789412,0.00011070907373951569,0.01853866986285098,0.98671875,0.9979166666666666,0.5518001437176427,0.013541666666666665,0.013076881545571345,1.0,,0.00041640471245502417,0.00005310666572648321,0.00028774616903302225,0.0010225459569953058
434 +turning_point,C_pooled_td,mrc,12.0,80,0.05400356494437021,0.04139706209514107,0.0000402539544446299,0.0383195503324162,0.9783443332379589,0.9940226569487628,0.3134499781146295,0.008333333333333335,,0.9993055555555556,,0.0008578893973480207,0.00005338217902961887,0.0006055980951234083,0.00030212740871728177
435 +turning_point,D_rtd13,mrc,11.2875,80,0.05917305303349746,0.04545989621654191,0.000028136986358979685,0.04270878888302163,,,0.28858674547343155,-0.026041666666666664,,0.9998892045454545,,0.0008548473637488757,0.00005840331811197744,0.0006060153747124992,
436 +turning_point,B_stratified,mrc,12.0,80,0.08468277855388488,0.06668302619579096,0.0002023758537918691,0.06529103585295577,,,0.18688735840182297,0.05625,,0.996857638888889,,0.0008611069079232448,0.00007309860098513936,0.0007104050360103524,
437 +turning_point,A_median,mrc,12.0,80,0.1299928045690438,0.1010042340969924,-0.000010583854556435465,0.0922352263111405,,,0.14226554578929712,0.08229166666666667,,0.9993055555555556,,0.0020160391331075196,0.0001210004023049269,0.0014327679664532889,
438 +turning_point,H_repeat_sales,mrc,12.0,80,0.2515503220711658,0.19104722971626484,-0.00033392789875692503,0.17898386256610238,,,0.07005742748031332,-0.04566287878787879,,0.9325520833333334,,0.003488506598927595,0.00043524370445066765,0.002542686990081474,
439 +turning_point,S_sharp,municipality,60.0,80,0.015767583366925103,0.0125044406347911,0.000027787239995201446,0.02226767132483677,0.9838055555555556,0.9998764124293785,0.6498872000676221,0.0025,0.023648978529205916,1.0,,0.000218092085358302,0.00004014949855295311,0.0003339941299079544,0.0006090298275396197
440 +turning_point,S_noTV,municipality,60.0,80,0.01578150824266779,0.012513211563928187,0.000018161419939420312,0.02227974103447314,0.9837430555555555,0.9998658192090396,0.6496286921241247,0.003125,0.02366667867587144,1.0,,0.00021796029043657898,0.000039720761493574746,0.0003333379650538746,0.0006151845881302964
441 +turning_point,S_LLT,municipality,60.0,80,0.016092097792137917,0.012740830061633226,0.00003369330821232247,0.028255963964214786,0.9674305555555556,0.9997669491525423,0.6445820517726946,0.009375,0.04570115383649296,1.0,,0.0002159579024704673,0.000045979442697689835,0.0004340550304747097,0.0008997433586438193
442 +turning_point,S_noEB,municipality,60.0,80,0.016182591187484108,0.012821917314295,0.00002724744841683624,0.023882126490996212,0.9749236111111111,0.9997139830508475,0.6425265147314181,0.007916666666666666,0.02374668716062932,1.0,,0.0002137517786218343,0.000041729471396639625,0.00034303544880442483,0.0007957256930713284
443 +turning_point,S_coarseloc,municipality,60.0,80,0.020456591347189534,0.01603237362168504,0.00010692589497123194,0.020958627534755844,0.9940520833333334,0.9995727401129944,0.5397866655904734,0.015,0.026703889317458068,1.0,,0.00040818430097698213,0.00005076350047582465,0.00024852110124399656,0.00032466059271038153
444 +turning_point,S_norobust,municipality,60.0,80,0.02245111332442156,0.01732313184369735,0.000038537916393059926,0.03028303803164658,0.9795138888888889,0.9982803672316385,0.5508571592466123,0.0027083333333333343,0.030366838522902877,1.0,,0.00037571698571373574,0.00004995930971391215,0.000561227492103961,0.0006943477429155306
445 +turning_point,K_qhpi,municipality,60.0,80,0.029140900613530835,0.022116884386350476,-4.37255001923933e-6,0.04251612593099319,0.8858819444444445,0.9753460451977402,0.5106102521384371,0.022291666666666664,,1.0,,0.0004615999326668889,0.00004751079536910683,0.0006232146887907187,0.002152115699424264
446 +turning_point,S_sharp_filtered,municipality,60.0,80,0.030152879628772188,0.020591640129909588,0.000010466624616455998,0.039733583392060165,0.9686319444444444,0.9989477401129943,0.44881220028626145,0.19708333333333333,,1.0,,0.00037249002946639043,0.00006185021210182078,0.0005354064024768379,0.0007169996548394218
447 +turning_point,B_stratified,municipality,49.1875,80,0.06020114288171422,0.04525488870447076,0.0005110812142116913,0.0671293908034988,,,0.1401850943143565,0.4586332861310377,,0.9679143623352203,,0.00018561525330373666,0.00003692336691976295,0.00026892633680046995,
448 +turning_point,D_rtd13,municipality,11.8375,80,0.07476284096538907,0.056715721698853735,0.000018144414375463726,0.053987216372636794,,,0.23696060130782617,-0.009952335246452892,,0.9994519916188114,,0.0009692162383357509,0.00005928587657588467,0.0006597105945053193,
449 +turning_point,C_pooled_td,municipality,39.2625,80,0.1252157897238662,0.09244075507784523,-0.00017891515965716258,0.08980686139210688,0.9677454742029962,0.9830515584734176,0.16463308817328834,0.03212743122433982,,0.9565275781612005,,0.0010060644047377245,0.00011908793623940341,0.0006852851985842374,0.00038960254079764296
450 +turning_point,A_median,municipality,60.0,80,0.24275115114555348,0.19000019532092757,-0.0004303374215955663,0.17293378571644794,,,0.0808288723763148,-0.014583625416999004,,0.815420138888889,,0.0016306233554351916,0.0006524609448272028,0.0011639571253097745,
451 +turning_point,H_repeat_sales,municipality,60.0,80,0.3923012636206997,0.3049755069754182,0.00033695312993570263,0.27615394367977475,,,0.0376837339806456,-0.040067288947627795,,0.3024444444444444,,0.004552227736652953,0.0008787996543152386,0.0029207323450650986,
452 +turning_point,C_pooled_td,province,1.0,80,0.012424617420623346,0.00974533086839181,6.429501457142756e-7,0.008796330745568261,0.9806250000000001,0.9970338983050848,0.750496366300571,0.0,,1.0,0.33525592684745786,0.0002475761799787312,0.00003173756523304782,0.0001651555780300848,0.0008089116640083596
453 +turning_point,S_sharp,province,1.0,80,0.01247423807450658,0.009787756621104123,0.000010686954839875933,0.008848463830013045,0.9806250000000001,0.9972457627118644,0.7491195438466811,0.0,,1.0,2.720532011985779,0.00024882634042190335,0.000032052795935943724,0.000167243116542751,0.00080891166400836
454 +turning_point,S_LLT,province,1.0,80,0.01247423807450658,0.009787756621104123,0.000010686954839875931,0.008848463830013045,0.9806250000000001,0.9972457627118644,0.7491195438466811,0.0,,1.0,559.6254273414612,0.0002488263404219033,0.000032052795935943724,0.00016724311654275098,0.00080891166400836
455 +turning_point,S_noEB,province,1.0,80,0.01247423807450658,0.009787756621104123,0.000010686954839875934,0.008848463830013045,0.9806250000000001,0.9972457627118644,0.7491195438466811,0.0,,1.0,545.7131586194039,0.0002488263404219034,0.00003205279593594373,0.000167243116542751,0.0008089116640083593
456 +turning_point,S_noTV,province,1.0,80,0.012477884249311113,0.009785574434437911,1.0556835301900488e-7,0.00883238501072057,0.9808333333333333,0.9972457627118644,0.7489870552608755,0.0,,1.0,2.6963600665330887,0.0002484544431242723,0.000031836118198283475,0.00016595977805586857,0.0007900132634326039
457 +turning_point,S_sharp_bottomup,province,1.0,80,0.012641800624443481,0.009931788244530521,0.000012240064984904632,0.009218023589517182,,,0.7448585530749579,0.0,,1.0,,0.00024835178361966857,0.00003488658716527301,0.00017203379376179735,
458 +turning_point,D_rtd13,province,1.0,80,0.013914067442239808,0.010857995506017324,-0.00002642076226693127,0.010055530504417468,,,0.71565098566065,0.0,,1.0,6.301649501919746,0.00027889291630275946,0.00003838980035991139,0.0001923398064226035,
459 +turning_point,K_qhpi,province,1.0,80,0.013914067442239808,0.010857995506017324,-0.00002642076226693127,0.010055530504417468,,,0.71565098566065,0.0,,1.0,6.772559919953347,0.00027889291630275957,0.0000383898003599114,0.0001923398064226035,
460 +turning_point,S_norobust,province,1.0,80,0.01586899905712983,0.012420166728756205,-2.617533742397163e-6,0.011170690851616642,0.9808333333333333,0.9972457627118644,0.6644718224709497,0.0,,1.0,1088.4333150088787,0.0003074568836269104,0.000040273987420940754,0.0002022665780747789,0.0006695612266902206
461 +turning_point,S_coarseloc,province,1.0,80,0.0187539052172652,0.014579574565886913,0.00009277909247998508,0.013394088251267824,0.9804166666666667,0.9955508474576271,0.6103764532848526,0.0,,1.0,2.7604000210762023,0.0004443467958473726,0.00005018300298875068,0.0003198813091665543,0.0007124939854657675
462 +turning_point,E_fisher_chained,province,1.0,80,0.021149408488301755,0.0164283673115882,2.021822232490682e-6,0.018016593045088104,,,0.5626911142319242,0.0125,,1.0,5.400713968276977,0.0004709861063678163,0.00007112097598532374,0.000519474724326817,
463 +turning_point,B_stratified,province,1.0,80,0.030775052536997534,0.024056527458482396,0.0002377177901692251,0.02217415475976133,,,0.4326752713068823,0.0,,1.0,0.017784488201141358,0.0007200383897527029,0.0000816693316258786,0.0005253135422176165,
464 +turning_point,A_median,province,1.0,80,0.035610223922236145,0.027962339142070025,0.00009881295631894412,0.025596197429553776,,,0.38176221179220443,0.0875,,1.0,0.0075467050075531,0.0007938983458593679,0.00010582763603244666,0.0005671147447246739,
465 +turning_point,H_repeat_sales,province,1.0,80,0.05322541044246106,0.0409570436401201,-0.00006682526088799511,0.03726217265163227,,,0.24943998887001168,-0.075,,1.0,0.05961587131023407,0.0009941041167343856,0.00016289973758812454,0.0006939940821108241,
466 +turning_point,K_qhpi,region,4.0,80,0.012327501135602676,0.009852869597895919,0.00007083766077226644,0.011579166086178592,0.9378645833333333,0.9824152542372883,0.6633039871992783,-0.003125,,1.0,,0.00012185881471797059,0.000024136309404669156,0.00013175781944505002,0.0021990462182396877
467 +turning_point,S_LLT,region,4.0,80,0.013907890377218304,0.011011313910702508,0.000021625010724362686,0.012131835792265958,0.9836458333333333,0.9983580508474577,0.695746363664856,0.00625,0.008171566270006442,1.0,,0.00021929872157756987,0.00003657930639221658,0.00016998226745097714,0.0011761196860110741
468 +turning_point,S_noEB,region,4.0,80,0.013941926087476214,0.011042028143162673,0.00001699507730618164,0.012082799771049379,0.9838020833333333,0.9985699152542373,0.6954504096706308,0.00625,0.005264082740635428,1.0,,0.00022005347356403123,0.00003535097928792262,0.00016681898938628753,0.001133828438601775
469 +turning_point,S_sharp,region,4.0,80,0.01398978686914088,0.011079688385874753,0.000015211994380255234,0.012086056219504933,0.98703125,0.9989406779661018,0.6961162164007022,0.003125,0.005868524630210711,1.0,,0.00022104569117695056,0.00003537823513868284,0.0001660361965499082,0.0009433966864097935
470 +turning_point,S_noTV,region,4.0,80,0.013993298459806708,0.011080318136332225,4.921046085822676e-6,0.012076648752689888,0.9869791666666666,0.9988877118644067,0.6959682474488289,0.003125,0.00587110309676314,1.0,,0.000220795832706829,0.00003507209689586414,0.00016530641074370014,0.0009474101152679127
471 +turning_point,S_sharp_filtered,region,4.0,80,0.015791871531900585,0.012554474204668136,0.00002580951400727718,0.013958074654676595,0.9845312500000001,0.9978813559322035,0.659622576776934,0.00625,,1.0,,0.00024054389502931907,0.00003754482045391541,0.00020702574612419043,0.000994981666913003
472 +turning_point,S_norobust,region,4.0,80,0.016973232172239134,0.013362198138029427,7.452014072610089e-6,0.013607381289341549,0.990625,0.998728813559322,0.6227240658864396,0.00625,0.005966470017250998,1.0,,0.0002838443116648053,0.000041443978104137434,0.0001975268741872006,0.0007931365435110159
473 +turning_point,S_coarseloc,region,4.0,80,0.019696544314660322,0.015394533821235096,0.00010157310690532826,0.015958361058682525,0.9884375000000001,0.9962923728813559,0.5680533604533613,0.00625,0.006069651845099761,1.0,,0.000418664196040132,0.00005176093233148085,0.00030195439035603195,0.0009998873661954922
474 +turning_point,C_pooled_td,region,4.0,80,0.02629274698919578,0.02047792181374268,0.000025578849888532012,0.018640569930321517,0.9795833333333333,0.9953389830508474,0.5142918301605424,-0.00625,,1.0,,0.0003999808833883479,0.00003567175348963033,0.00027761252421387706,0.00041666666666666496
475 +turning_point,D_rtd13,region,4.0,80,0.02990535103294854,0.023235662315547908,9.69123060024418e-7,0.021460267851450505,,,0.4716657155827537,-0.009375,,1.0,,0.00047890588841801554,0.00004287986824856814,0.0003334180172070027,
476 +turning_point,B_stratified,region,4.0,80,0.060283712103543,0.04712772130338767,0.00010657548914363325,0.043157188452249626,,,0.2637942064092434,-0.003125,,1.0,,0.0013288023018119559,0.00008446030084357568,0.0009301932249663722,
477 +turning_point,A_median,region,4.0,80,0.07242324664816284,0.056500341759534015,0.00010830128421148828,0.05137977772365278,,,0.23057903451205392,0.1125,,1.0,,0.0015669153082677675,0.00009534283339530109,0.001072860060664658,
478 +turning_point,H_repeat_sales,region,4.0,80,0.12030898678586059,0.09120194156729268,0.00005924562966996715,0.08476925913182576,,,0.13026048217414837,0.00625,,0.9985416666666668,,0.002056634438046059,0.0001921184793358671,0.0014152679657792777,
added results/vintages/revision_policies_province_filtered.csv +4 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
1 +class,months,mae_first_release_vs_final,bias_first_release_vs_final,mae_third_release_vs_final,rmse_first,rmse_third,mean_abs_true_change
2 +condo,52,0.0015620242064084064,0.00012999474800442522,0.0015485661521688215,0.0020789246210967667,0.0020302944477716685,0.007675301455052519
3 +house,52,0.0015532707391587841,-0.00012648911680931643,0.0015806828848220328,0.0020166096637717987,0.001978731246833613,0.015036741431184
4 +plex,52,0.0025609731874916717,-0.00013590920564457217,0.0025993659546795556,0.0035467549510441792,0.0035119400625493245,0.015285921387441144
modified results/vintages/revisions_by_release.csv +72 −72
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1 1 class,level,release,obs,mae_rev_m1_vs_final,bias_rev_m1_vs_final,mae_rev_12m_vs_final,bias_rev_12m_vs_final,mae_rev_m1_vs_last_rt,mae_rev_12m_vs_last_rt,share_m1_rev_gt_1pct
2 −condo,municipality,1,3326,0.018218959210363525,0.000016688468351380448,0.035899729145987345,-0.00021023850922487306,0.010687310523249133,0.018543645860963492,0.539386650631389
3 −condo,municipality,2,3326,0.01830369137665762,0.0003420352663881496,0.035203232880077505,0.000014803896699086845,0.010651332141485633,0.01800571985494987,0.5426939266386049
4 −condo,municipality,3,3326,0.018253256323750244,0.00016979601424385027,0.034917315515444566,-0.00007206650223968797,0.010565016295267286,0.017769186486300787,0.5469031870114252
5 −condo,municipality,4,3326,0.018498001562029184,-0.00023268101188767977,0.03468796870069724,-0.00006589479040444394,0.010597045308313584,0.017713744598356427,0.5463018641010222
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@@ -23,30 +23,30 @@ condo,province,9,52,0.001684486401976774,0.0001661810791386928,0.002174010931892
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25 25 condo,province,12,52,0.0015979690610675432,0.00020430782104002075,0.002030825256681998,0.0017622010900594173,0.0015979690610675526,0.002030825256681985,0.0
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@@ -59,30 +59,30 @@ house,province,9,52,0.0014130734327221692,-0.0000909970886723188,0.0014631138909
59 59 house,province,10,52,0.0014782505022436498,-0.00007538162157755709,0.0015200536868807373,-0.0010272498521163638,0.0014782505022436407,0.0015200536868807328,0.0
60 60 house,province,11,52,0.0015230332258875645,-2.250496928529023e-6,0.0014643526037635517,-0.0010100131367339448,0.0015230332258875609,0.0014643526037635562,0.0
61 61 house,province,12,52,0.0015153200471414187,-0.00010782398525555524,0.0014670531390204471,-0.0009616150650127447,0.0015153200471414168,0.0014670531390204601,0.0
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74 −plex,municipality,1,3328,0.030288452162634486,-0.0005165186498657069,0.05262428846302046,-0.0013226885566379341,0.019897252981619543,0.033129705017398134,0.7349759615384616
75 −plex,municipality,2,3328,0.030266879188481352,-0.0003655847747851418,0.05124090476264386,-0.0008382047477597895,0.01989114441298446,0.032497132965224954,0.7409855769230769
76 −plex,municipality,3,3328,0.030331666170240246,-0.0002023008851125926,0.050822375628742804,-0.0013142855616835884,0.020014972187375853,0.032151556987150706,0.7400841346153846
77 −plex,municipality,4,3328,0.030477212650632968,0.00009434774566381735,0.05035652503326435,-0.001269901688993596,0.019986435679324968,0.031484862709542816,0.7484975961538461
78 −plex,municipality,5,3328,0.030384353808983886,-0.0002506971999339553,0.050557107407382555,-0.0015328881303532374,0.019852268026197755,0.03133718273027722,0.7563100961538461
79 −plex,municipality,6,3328,0.03047240597019304,-0.0006416287762726019,0.050801391274887295,-0.0012769798940341077,0.019520257572899293,0.03113832132401664,0.7478966346153846
80 −plex,municipality,7,3328,0.030097634848138103,0.0005177780192227456,0.05285719878650923,-0.00004594055955131114,0.019349417672062698,0.03183955846264396,0.7424879807692307
81 −plex,municipality,8,3328,0.029959285314090908,0.00012593807399265388,0.05247757118949334,-0.0007128007364661556,0.019118259744491658,0.03136403272927994,0.73828125
82 −plex,municipality,9,3328,0.030089488148415975,0.00045823265598124614,0.052224433356263526,-0.0009431994798718081,0.01901532501819489,0.03092802726606761,0.7391826923076923
83 −plex,municipality,10,3328,0.030194143109486052,-0.0003324314840843651,0.05221499953743071,-0.00144042255688976,0.019153754370377817,0.03092370755108541,0.7430889423076923
84 −plex,municipality,11,3328,0.030196699685274782,-0.0005071502270420179,0.05194727249336939,-0.0009267387182001881,0.019627275902071434,0.03058956960222138,0.7409855769230769
85 −plex,municipality,12,3328,0.030019016362902717,0.0002973269455979839,0.05150005703267959,-9.476544628591346e-6,0.019092770944119066,0.029870112776456893,0.7418870192307693
62 +house,region,1,884,0.016237242156680445,0.00009591728661120929,0.02160711299012935,0.00003595372178457736,0.01623724215668044,0.021607112990129344,0.43778280542986425
63 +house,region,2,884,0.015642093605174212,-0.000011515089719601417,0.019929006720601935,0.00006297926149870425,0.015642093605174205,0.01992900672060193,0.4117647058823529
64 +house,region,3,884,0.015653394118746635,0.00022559115679057418,0.019759598660642492,0.00019333471335641601,0.01565339411874663,0.019759598660642485,0.3993212669683258
65 +house,region,4,884,0.015383705603804093,0.0002478981369101258,0.020166006796198382,-0.00032851871674480465,0.015383705603804088,0.02016600679619837,0.3891402714932127
66 +house,region,5,884,0.015082412216639045,-0.00008129335178385775,0.019945240542811524,-0.0005223528424247025,0.015082412216639042,0.01994524054281152,0.3766968325791855
67 +house,region,6,884,0.01512963395979052,-0.00029379190012712513,0.019966638802144342,-0.0008302445651651559,0.015129633959790516,0.01996663880214434,0.36538461538461536
68 +house,region,7,884,0.014970837398918435,-0.0002886369206104624,0.019902198359729287,-0.0004611578016714547,0.01497083739891843,0.019902198359729287,0.3744343891402715
69 +house,region,8,884,0.01518370251745822,-0.00019827012222823565,0.01977226195259539,-0.00009632109602087075,0.015183702517458215,0.019772261952595387,0.3778280542986425
70 +house,region,9,884,0.015304326289318883,0.000044315382091241464,0.01972433776341646,0.00008674979855672094,0.015304326289318878,0.019724337763416457,0.3891402714932127
71 +house,region,10,884,0.0154662237603004,0.00011144927632603617,0.019665615993345088,0.0004705862421928911,0.015466223760300397,0.019665615993345084,0.40158371040723984
72 +house,region,11,884,0.01576304210311467,0.00016789949884931616,0.019966236719969763,0.0007366686831810183,0.015763042103114668,0.01996623671996976,0.3993212669683258
73 +house,region,12,884,0.01587220245953274,0.00001639036867535654,0.019572158747650874,0.0008012208822167359,0.015872202459532737,0.019572158747650868,0.40384615384615385
74 +plex,municipality,1,3328,0.015819712039832116,0.00013506117106964227,0.03949344488472662,-0.002438728817984168,0.015661197364926237,0.03972903250446488,0.4840745192307692
75 +plex,municipality,2,3328,0.014155347906987555,-0.00020780622715853216,0.03467918451575128,-0.0025472181463809247,0.013917599734152962,0.03426072291577735,0.4284855769230769
76 +plex,municipality,3,3328,0.01352089419910673,-0.00019994096084072603,0.032198233488122535,-0.0028867438834466515,0.013159666509577821,0.0314106491803168,0.39903846153846156
77 +plex,municipality,4,3328,0.013373559497127001,-0.00019363965502364191,0.029986664146197384,-0.002611423968690828,0.012962374261267201,0.028885611975837482,0.3996394230769231
78 +plex,municipality,5,3328,0.013092261545797238,-0.0003083250545240422,0.02888613327078242,-0.0025596989456945466,0.012661761172431868,0.027628531968372526,0.38852163461538464
79 +plex,municipality,6,3328,0.012931887606002567,-0.0005699946661446375,0.027952593521416356,-0.002449588276123388,0.012554899833009349,0.02667866099583461,0.37439903846153844
80 +plex,municipality,7,3328,0.012810605655911607,0.000289078037017901,0.027604097610961643,-0.002044558755162899,0.012368925396553236,0.026353625658609173,0.3746995192307692
81 +plex,municipality,8,3328,0.01270669758817127,-0.00015771912833731304,0.026919362943800457,-0.002550672174675075,0.012297636219625948,0.025632186974514824,0.3786057692307692
82 +plex,municipality,9,3328,0.012597955586376327,-0.0001711301482021033,0.02627871973270691,-0.00280139354266408,0.012191011358850099,0.02487804471992416,0.37349759615384615
83 +plex,municipality,10,3328,0.012666605394109628,-0.0005531121887786219,0.025662974185262907,-0.0030838578405113543,0.01226355349484181,0.024291590276601095,0.3798076923076923
84 +plex,municipality,11,3328,0.01291053792527181,-0.0004999504987514736,0.025029084534822794,-0.002801129668997038,0.012547223083908167,0.023539957540193238,0.3831129807692308
85 +plex,municipality,12,3328,0.0127042317698907,-1.2494983106196225e-6,0.02466328268627723,-0.002297135212747703,0.012323305400044159,0.023067116526959308,0.38070913461538464
86 86 plex,province,1,52,0.0025609731874916717,-0.00013590920564457217,0.0034534763426082977,-0.0015875438365012494,0.0025609731874916665,0.0034534763426082946,0.0
87 87 plex,province,2,52,0.0024926043659790893,-0.00009454019214262746,0.0032054734636291324,-0.0014694410088973257,0.0024926043659790685,0.003205473463629128,0.019230769230769232
88 88 plex,province,3,52,0.002553714357481464,-0.00004047794281379422,0.003094585608310371,-0.0015220777776656772,0.002553714357481438,0.003094585608310366,0.0
@@ -95,15 +95,15 @@ plex,province,9,52,0.0025205385749526854,-0.00011984928174292413,0.0026124175074
95 95 plex,province,10,52,0.002471275260724911,-0.00016212659033303835,0.0025179190218171587,-0.0009736164485255596,0.0024712752607249015,0.002517919021817157,0.0
96 96 plex,province,11,52,0.0023786308212119735,0.00008397121580975361,0.002409360630624702,-0.0007613081176061588,0.0023786308212119666,0.002409360630624712,0.0
97 97 plex,province,12,52,0.002372654388962432,-0.00017528002044779283,0.0025522750376679062,-0.0008278294224610996,0.0023726543889624327,0.0025522750376679223,0.0
98 −plex,region,1,884,0.013662550268308716,-0.0003106828386291632,0.020509090851500367,-0.004066840589696208,0.008588373597085176,0.013735934909154963,0.5328054298642534
99 −plex,region,2,884,0.01380938733905172,-0.00005507667807821284,0.020321558543735557,-0.004052497859157451,0.008743558386230163,0.013775239910577506,0.5395927601809954
100 −plex,region,3,884,0.013579203115088274,-0.00015589132251798307,0.02036969763369768,-0.004311733216030613,0.008691208480082676,0.013924305443190406,0.5248868778280543
101 −plex,region,4,884,0.013639439516273274,-0.00021329719406405447,0.020611391769852692,-0.0042585236155864474,0.008751234298494903,0.013840468072287814,0.5271493212669683
102 −plex,region,5,884,0.01382307529096038,-0.00031560954542261154,0.021284503765627488,-0.004218441495675318,0.008739481647510192,0.0142695085422924,0.5328054298642534
103 −plex,region,6,884,0.013543587939921909,-0.0007488494780056365,0.021803628079206022,-0.004280267650932594,0.008605126816542623,0.014021650843498165,0.5316742081447964
104 −plex,region,7,884,0.013396622009093124,-0.0005177203933074815,0.022461321433010415,-0.004277202804897456,0.008728996501200475,0.014374504850619765,0.5226244343891403
105 −plex,region,8,884,0.013425408159991752,-0.00042760211871508845,0.02204763031635865,-0.004091255775097806,0.00864160129784591,0.014318956170876553,0.5237556561085973
106 −plex,region,9,884,0.013700099938324965,-0.0002571476814299578,0.02202374907087782,-0.004011719013280068,0.008795275562324676,0.014197163527242035,0.5328054298642534
107 −plex,region,10,884,0.013954066485638647,-0.00038978431401202163,0.02195315127310212,-0.0037817512916404287,0.008956589306037753,0.014001053319166847,0.5452488687782805
108 −plex,region,11,884,0.014203977274158053,-0.00022764982825614356,0.02185184168913049,-0.0033312202054388597,0.009293019546997147,0.014028442873695878,0.5599547511312217
109 −plex,region,12,884,0.014069327265242619,-0.0004475291972578539,0.021825252254585842,-0.0032864627859346017,0.009161575036737011,0.014281809023605587,0.5497737556561086
98 +plex,region,1,884,0.0076052365805900505,-0.00023694798124015116,0.015527748636949855,-0.00212428904141148,0.007605236580590048,0.015527748636949855,0.25904977375565613
99 +plex,region,2,884,0.006447377736207441,-0.00008402580505494034,0.012584425501159945,-0.0020182324584237022,0.006447377736207441,0.012584425501159945,0.19683257918552036
100 +plex,region,3,884,0.005870393093142987,-0.00014677742464745284,0.01157925570090931,-0.0022065035744488143,0.005870393093142987,0.011579255700909306,0.1504524886877828
101 +plex,region,4,884,0.005862754623190244,-0.00019418627565274293,0.011346699078081753,-0.002112436792889703,0.005862754623190244,0.011346699078081746,0.15610859728506787
102 +plex,region,5,884,0.005729513848660099,-0.000247923096635582,0.011456625339177032,-0.0020211916862878337,0.005729513848660103,0.011456625339177027,0.14705882352941177
103 +plex,region,6,884,0.005658962446315207,-0.0003010322368330697,0.011187565160104159,-0.0019449400400900377,0.005658962446315207,0.011187565160104156,0.13914027149321267
104 +plex,region,7,884,0.005717764103085898,-0.00010850895088784576,0.011086865793034152,-0.0019979554117634814,0.005717764103085898,0.011086865793034145,0.1425339366515837
105 +plex,region,8,884,0.005674841401389892,-0.00009026569973010005,0.011001736886019443,-0.002033380275588575,0.005674841401389891,0.011001736886019438,0.1414027149321267
106 +plex,region,9,884,0.005749499162117269,-0.00008960245046673149,0.011027784437214683,-0.002082687542358572,0.0057494991621172675,0.011027784437214682,0.1436651583710407
107 +plex,region,10,884,0.005927436908831604,-0.00024841794076044954,0.010993869820774826,-0.002011109260497193,0.0059274369088316,0.01099386982077482,0.15497737556561086
108 +plex,region,11,884,0.006170490922417883,-0.00012127384691599895,0.011028632569487593,-0.0017871849758839895,0.006170490922417881,0.01102863256948759,0.16063348416289594
109 +plex,region,12,884,0.006110026845964132,-0.00025532733258641497,0.011280212739165813,-0.001892255480184082,0.006110026845964128,0.011280212739165815,0.16063348416289594
added results/vintages/revisions_by_release_filtered.csv +109 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
1 +class,level,release,obs,mae_rev_m1_vs_final,bias_rev_m1_vs_final,mae_rev_12m_vs_final,bias_rev_12m_vs_final,mae_rev_m1_vs_last_rt,mae_rev_12m_vs_last_rt,share_m1_rev_gt_1pct
2 +condo,municipality,1,3326,0.018218959210363525,0.000016688468351379933,0.035899729145987345,-0.00021023850922487382,0.010687310523249133,0.018543645860963492,0.539386650631389
3 +condo,municipality,2,3326,0.01830369137665762,0.0003420352663881489,0.035203232880077505,0.000014803896699086178,0.010651332141485633,0.01800571985494987,0.5426939266386049
4 +condo,municipality,3,3326,0.018253256323750244,0.0001697960142438505,0.03491731551544456,-0.00007206650223968792,0.010565016295267286,0.017769186486300787,0.5469031870114252
5 +condo,municipality,4,3326,0.018498001562029184,-0.0002326810118876801,0.03468796870069724,-0.0000658947904044443,0.010597045308313584,0.017713744598356427,0.5463018641010222
6 +condo,municipality,5,3326,0.01890243926725158,0.000215819868632482,0.035178307015601325,-0.00016159941438881665,0.010842865379196506,0.017952100712717328,0.550210463018641
7 +condo,municipality,6,3326,0.01881462255308852,0.0002875399574424479,0.03532503607865267,-0.0007016909438070628,0.01091535931184554,0.018263884216127575,0.5493084786530367
8 +condo,municipality,7,3326,0.018671778319748422,0.00033286267475003597,0.036041158805345176,-0.0008354496235605418,0.010687919474979822,0.01848474169474526,0.5472038484666266
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25 +condo,province,12,52,0.0015979690610675432,0.00020430782104002075,0.002030825256681998,0.0017622010900594173,0.0015979690610675526,0.002030825256681985,0.0
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added results/vintages/revisions_long_filtered.parquet +0 −0

Binary file not shown.

modified scripts/60_figures.py +16 −15
@@ -203,26 +203,27 @@ def fig_mc():
203 203 return
204 204 d = pl.read_csv(p)
205 205 methods = ["S_sharp", "S_sharp_filtered", "S_noEB", "S_LLT", "S_coarseloc", "S_norobust", "K_qhpi", "C_pooled_td", "D_rtd13", "B_stratified", "A_median"]
206 − cols = {m: METHOD_COLORS.get(m.replace("D_rtd13", "D_rtd_w13_mean").replace("B_stratified", "B_stratified_median"), SERIES[i % 8]) for i, m in enumerate(methods)}
207 − scen = d["scenario"].unique().sort().to_list()
208 − fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(9.0, 5.6), sharex=True)
206 + labels = {"S_sharp": "SHARP-HPI (smoothed)", "S_sharp_filtered": "SHARP-HPI (filtered)", "S_noEB": "SHARP: no EB pooling", "S_LLT": "SHARP: local linear trend", "S_coarseloc": "SHARP: municipal location FE", "S_norobust": "SHARP: Gaussian",
207 + "K_qhpi": "QHPI v2.1 architecture", "C_pooled_td": "Pooled time dummy (cell)", "D_rtd13": "Rolling TD 13 m (cell)", "B_stratified": "Stratified median", "A_median": "Median price"}
208 + cols = dict(zip(methods, [SERIES[0], "#0b0b0b", SERIES[1], SERIES[3], SERIES[4], SERIES[6], SERIES[7], SERIES[5], "#7a7a7a", "#a0a0a0", SERIES[2]]))
209 + scen = ["baseline", "turning_point", "flat_quality_up", "rising_quality_down", "drifting_hedonics", "heavy_tails", "sparse", "no_local_dynamics", "idiosyncratic_towns"]
210 + scen = [s for s in scen if s in d["scenario"].unique().to_list()]
211 + fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(9.2, 6.0), sharex=True)
209 212 for ax, lvl in zip(axes, ["municipality", "region"]):
210 − sub = d.filter(pl.col("level") == lvl)
211 − w = 0.8 / len(methods)
213 + sub = d.filter(pl.col("level") == lvl); w = 0.8 / len(methods)
212 214 for j, m in enumerate(methods):
213 − s = sub.filter(pl.col("method") == m)
214 − vals = {r["scenario"]: (r["rmse_ret"], r["rmse_ret_mcse"]) for r in s.iter_rows(named=True)}
215 − ys = [vals.get(sc, (np.nan, 0))[0] for sc in scen]; es = [vals.get(sc, (0, 0))[1] for sc in scen]
216 − ax.bar(np.arange(len(scen)) + j * w - 0.4 + w / 2, 100 * np.array(ys), width=w * 0.92, color=cols[m], label=METHOD_LABELS.get(m, m), yerr=100 * np.array(es), error_kw=dict(lw=0.5, capsize=0), lw=0)
217 − ax.set_ylabel(f"RMSE of monthly log change (%), {lvl}"); ax.set_ylim(0, None)
218 − axes[1].set_xticks(range(len(scen))); axes[1].set_xticklabels(scen, rotation=20, fontsize=7.5)
215 + s = sub.filter(pl.col("method") == m); vals = {r["scenario"]: (r["rmse_ret"], r["rmse_ret_mcse"]) for r in s.iter_rows(named=True)}
216 + ys = [100 * vals[sc][0] if sc in vals and vals[sc][0] is not None else np.nan for sc in scen]; es = [100 * vals[sc][1] if sc in vals and vals[sc][1] is not None else 0 for sc in scen]
217 + ax.bar(np.arange(len(scen)) + j * w - 0.4 + w / 2, ys, width=w * 0.92, color=cols[m], label=labels[m], yerr=es, error_kw=dict(lw=0.5, capsize=0), lw=0)
218 + ax.set_yscale("log"); ax.set_ylabel(f"RMSE of monthly log change (%, log scale)\n{lvl} level"); ax.grid(True, which="both", axis="y", lw=0.4)
219 + axes[1].set_xticks(range(len(scen))); axes[1].set_xticklabels([s.replace("_", " ") for s in scen], rotation=20, fontsize=7.5)
219 220 axes[0].legend(ncol=4, fontsize=6.5, loc="upper left")
220 221 save(fig, "fig_mc_rmse")
221 − fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9.0, 2.8))
222 − for j, m in enumerate(["S_sharp", "S_sharp_filtered", "S_noEB", "S_LLT", "K_qhpi", "C_pooled_td"]):
222 + fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9.2, 2.9))
223 + for m in ["S_sharp", "S_sharp_filtered", "S_noEB", "S_LLT", "S_norobust", "S_coarseloc", "K_qhpi", "C_pooled_td"]:
223 224 s = d.filter((pl.col("level") == "municipality") & (pl.col("method") == m)); vals = {r["scenario"]: r["cov95"] for r in s.iter_rows(named=True)}
224 − ax.plot(range(len(scen)), [100 * vals.get(sc, np.nan) for sc in scen], marker="o", ms=4, color=cols[m], label=METHOD_LABELS.get(m, m))
225 − ax.axhline(95, color=INK2, lw=0.6, ls="--"); ax.set_ylabel("Coverage of 95 % intervals (%), municipalities"); ax.set_xticks(range(len(scen))); ax.set_xticklabels(scen, rotation=20, fontsize=7.5); ax.legend(ncol=3, fontsize=6.5)
225 + ax.plot(range(len(scen)), [100 * vals.get(sc, np.nan) if vals.get(sc) is not None else np.nan for sc in scen], marker="o", ms=4, color=cols[m], label=labels[m])
226 + ax.axhline(95, color=INK2, lw=0.6, ls="--"); ax.set_ylabel("Coverage of 95 % intervals (%)\nmunicipality level"); ax.set_xticks(range(len(scen))); ax.set_xticklabels([s.replace("_", " ") for s in scen], rotation=20, fontsize=7.5); ax.legend(ncol=4, fontsize=6.5)
226 227 save(fig, "fig_mc_coverage")
227 228
228 229
modified scripts/61_tables.py +10 −5
@@ -260,6 +260,10 @@ def t_benchmarks():
260 260 notes="Repeat sales are an independent (pair-based) arbiter, not the truth: they carry renovation and selection biases. Lower s.d. is not better per se; the Monte Carlo (Section 7) separates noise from signal.")
261 261
262 262
263 +def fv(x, fmt, scale=1.0):
264 + return "—" if x is None or (isinstance(x, float) and x != x) else fmt.format(scale * x)
265 +
266 +
263 267 def t_simulation():
264 268 if not ok(R / "simulation" / "summary.csv"):
265 269 return
@@ -275,9 +279,10 @@ def t_simulation():
275 279 r = [lab.get(m, m)]
276 280 for sc in scen:
277 281 x = d.filter((pl.col("scenario") == sc) & (pl.col("level") == lvl) & (pl.col("method") == m))
278 − r.append(f"{100*x['rmse_ret'][0]:.2f} ({100*x['rmse_ret_mcse'][0]:.2f})" if x.height and x["rmse_ret"][0] == x["rmse_ret"][0] else "—")
282 + r.append(f"{fv(x['rmse_ret'][0], '{:.2f}', 100)} ({fv(x['rmse_ret_mcse'][0], '{:.2f}', 100)})" if x.height else "—")
279 283 if x.height:
280 − macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Rmse", 100 * x["rmse_ret"][0], "{:.2f}"); macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Cov", 100 * x["cov95"][0], "{:.0f}"); macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Bias", 100 * x["bias_ret"][0], "{:.3f}")
284 + macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Rmse", 100 * x["rmse_ret"][0] if x["rmse_ret"][0] is not None else None, "{:.2f}"); macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Cov", 100 * x["cov95"][0] if x["cov95"][0] is not None else None, "{:.0f}"); macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Bias", 100 * x["bias_ret"][0] if x["bias_ret"][0] is not None else None, "{:.3f}")
285 + macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Share", 100 * x["share_est"][0] if x["share_est"][0] is not None else None, "{:.0f}"); macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Lag", x["lag_xcorr"][0], "{:+.2f}"); macro(f"MC{lvl}{m}{sc}Rev", 100 * x["revision_rmse"][0] if x["revision_rmse"][0] is not None else None, "{:.2f}")
281 286 rows.append(r)
282 287 table(f"tab_mc_rmse_{lvl}", ["Method"] + [s.replace("_", " ") for s in scen], rows, f"Monte Carlo: RMSE of monthly log changes (×100) at the {lvl} level, by scenario (Monte Carlo standard error in parentheses)", f"tab:mc_rmse_{lvl}", size="\\scriptsize", longtable=False,
283 288 notes="Averages over cells and replications; see Table~\\ref{tab:mc_design} for the scenarios. Lower is better; the final two scenarios are the deliberate counter-examples.")
@@ -286,7 +291,7 @@ def t_simulation():
286 291 r = [lab.get(m, m)]
287 292 for sc in scen:
288 293 x = d.filter((pl.col("scenario") == sc) & (pl.col("level") == "municipality") & (pl.col("method") == m))
289 − r.append(f"{100*x['cov95'][0]:.0f}" if x.height and x["cov95"][0] == x["cov95"][0] else "—")
294 + r.append(fv(x["cov95"][0], "{:.0f}", 100) if x.height else "—")
290 295 rows.append(r)
291 296 table("tab_mc_coverage", ["Method"] + [s.replace("_", " ") for s in scen], rows, "Monte Carlo: empirical coverage (\\%) of nominal 95\\% intervals for municipal index levels", "tab:mc_coverage", size="\\scriptsize")
292 297 rows = []
@@ -294,14 +299,14 @@ def t_simulation():
294 299 r = [lab.get(m, m)]
295 300 for sc in scen:
296 301 x = d.filter((pl.col("scenario") == sc) & (pl.col("level") == "municipality") & (pl.col("method") == m))
297 − r.append(f"{100*x['bias_ret'][0]:+.3f}" if x.height else "—")
302 + r.append(fv(x["bias_ret"][0], "{:+.3f}", 100) if x.height else "—")
298 303 rows.append(r)
299 304 table("tab_mc_bias", ["Method"] + [s.replace("_", " ") for s in scen], rows, "Monte Carlo: mean bias of monthly log changes (×100) at the municipality level", "tab:mc_bias", size="\\scriptsize")
300 305 rows = []
301 306 for sc in scen:
302 307 x = d.filter((pl.col("scenario") == sc) & (pl.col("level") == "municipality") & (pl.col("method") == "S_sharp"))
303 308 y = d.filter((pl.col("scenario") == sc) & (pl.col("level") == "municipality") & (pl.col("method") == "K_qhpi"))
304 − rows.append([sc.replace("_", " "), str(int(x["reps"][0])), f"{x['lag_xcorr'][0]:+.2f}", f"{100*x['revision_rmse'][0]:.2f}", f"{y['lag_xcorr'][0]:+.2f}" if y.height else "—", f"{x['secs'][0]:.1f}" if x["secs"][0] == x["secs"][0] else "—"])
309 + rows.append([sc.replace("_", " "), str(int(x["reps"][0])), fv(x["lag_xcorr"][0], "{:+.2f}"), fv(x["revision_rmse"][0], "{:.2f}", 100), fv(y["lag_xcorr"][0], "{:+.2f}") if y.height else "—", fv(x["secs"][0], "{:.1f}")])
305 310 table("tab_mc_lag", ["Scenario", "Reps", "SHARP lag (months)", "SHARP revision RMSE", "QHPI lag", "sec./rep"], rows, "Monte Carlo: timing diagnostics at the municipality level", "tab:mc_lag", size="\\small",
306 311 notes="Lag = argmax of the cross-correlation between estimated and true 3-month changes (negative = estimate lags). Revision RMSE = RMSE between filtered (real-time) and smoothed monthly changes (×100).")
307 312
308 313