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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering\scriptsize3\caption{Task C — probability of an index decline over the horizon: Brier score and Brier skill score relative to the climatological frequency of declines}\label{tab:decline_b}4\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%5\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr}6\toprule7Model & h=1: Brier & h=1: skill & h=3: Brier & h=3: skill & h=6: Brier & h=6: skill & h=12: Brier & h=12: skill \\8\midrule9No change & 0.244 & -0.01 & 0.217 & -0.02 & 0.179 & -0.01 & 0.090 & -0.01 \\10Mean growth & 0.249 & -0.04 & 0.226 & -0.06 & 0.187 & -0.06 & 0.099 & -0.12 \\11Momentum & 0.240 & +0.00 & 0.205 & +0.03 & 0.171 & +0.03 & 0.089 & -0.01 \\12AR(2), cell & 0.244 & -0.01 & 0.208 & +0.02 & 0.176 & +0.00 & 0.089 & -0.01 \\13Ridge (panel) & 0.231 & +0.04 & 0.188 & +0.11 & 0.186 & -0.05 & 0.095 & -0.07 \\14LightGBM (panel) & 0.219 & +0.09 & 0.181 & +0.15 & 0.174 & +0.02 & 0.090 & -0.02 \\15TFT-lite & 0.275 & -0.14 & 0.223 & -0.05 & 0.186 & -0.05 & 0.095 & -0.07 \\16BHPF & 0.226 & +0.06 & 0.184 & +0.13 & 0.179 & -0.01 & 0.097 & -0.10 \\17RAREF & 0.226 & +0.06 & 0.194 & +0.09 & 0.185 & -0.05 & 0.094 & -0.07 \\18QANSS & 0.226 & +0.06 & 0.197 & +0.07 & 0.181 & -0.03 & 0.180 & -1.04 \\19DSGFN & 0.252 & -0.05 & 0.182 & +0.14 & 0.170 & +0.04 & 0.096 & -0.08 \\20QREFA & 0.234 & +0.03 & 0.176 & +0.17 & 0.166 & +0.06 & 0.097 & -0.09 \\21\bottomrule22\end{tabular}}23\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Probabilities are read off the five-quantile forecasts by linear interpolation of the quantile function. Skill = $1 - $ Brier / Brier of the constant climatological probability.}24\end{table}25