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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering\scriptsize3\caption{Task B — unadjusted Diebold--Mariano $p$-values and Giacomini--White conditional-predictive-ability $p$-values against the no-change forecast}\label{tab:gw_b}4\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%5\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr}6\toprule7Model & h=1: DM $p$ & h=1: GW $p$ & h=3: DM $p$ & h=3: GW $p$ & h=6: DM $p$ & h=6: GW $p$ & h=12: DM $p$ & h=12: GW $p$ \\8\midrule9Mean growth & 0.800 & 0.972 & 0.560 & 0.001 & 0.473 & 0.003 & 0.798 & 0.000 \\10Momentum & 0.324 & 0.075 & 0.344 & 0.063 & 0.574 & 0.069 & 0.896 & 0.376 \\11Random walk with drift & 0.022 & 0.044 & 0.261 & 0.000 & 0.375 & 0.000 & 0.773 & 0.001 \\12Seasonal naive & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.270 & 0.001 & 0.327 & 0.000 & 0.773 & 0.001 \\13AR(2), cell & 0.278 & 0.496 & 0.072 & 0.099 & 0.109 & 0.035 & 0.712 & 0.000 \\14Local linear trend & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 \\15Ridge (panel) & 0.067 & 0.103 & 0.052 & 0.098 & 0.367 & 0.004 & 0.898 & 0.010 \\16LightGBM (panel) & 0.001 & 0.000 & 0.007 & 0.005 & 0.086 & 0.067 & 0.855 & 0.011 \\17MLP (panel) & 0.471 & 0.698 & 0.229 & 0.327 & 0.610 & 0.003 & 0.595 & 0.000 \\18LSTM & 0.069 & 0.150 & 0.314 & 0.184 & 0.254 & 0.002 & 0.945 & 0.107 \\19GRU & 0.124 & 0.243 & 0.106 & 0.190 & 0.229 & 0.007 & 0.894 & 0.007 \\20TCN & 0.501 & 0.649 & 0.208 & 0.220 & 0.229 & 0.045 & 0.880 & 0.046 \\21TFT-lite & 0.223 & 0.304 & 0.817 & 0.261 & 0.876 & 0.011 & 0.966 & 0.000 \\22BHPF & 0.082 & 0.118 & 0.064 & 0.120 & 0.469 & 0.001 & 0.918 & 0.000 \\23RAREF & 0.055 & 0.075 & 0.092 & 0.171 & 0.364 & 0.001 & 0.915 & 0.016 \\24QANSS & 0.030 & 0.027 & 0.037 & 0.066 & 0.217 & 0.001 & 0.792 & 0.004 \\25DSGFN & 0.605 & 0.320 & 0.223 & 0.154 & 0.372 & 0.015 & 0.919 & 0.000 \\26QREFA & 0.092 & 0.038 & 0.050 & 0.096 & 0.215 & 0.018 & 0.959 & 0.000 \\27\bottomrule28\end{tabular}}29\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize The Giacomini--White test regresses the loss differential on a constant and its own lag; a rejection means the relative accuracy of the two forecasts is predictable from the past.}30\end{table}31