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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering\scriptsize3\caption{Task B — Point accuracy of quality-adjusted index-change forecasts by horizon (months)}\label{tab:scores_b}4\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%5\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr}6\toprule7Model & 1: MAE & 1: MASE & 3: MAE & 3: MASE & 6: MAE & 6: MASE & 12: MAE & 12: MASE \\8\midrule9No change & 2.47$^{\dagger}$ & 1.00 & 4.19$^{\dagger}$ & 1.00 & 5.37$^{\dagger}$ & 1.00 & 7.52 & 1.00 \\10Mean growth & 2.46$^{\dagger}$ & 1.00 & 4.00 & 0.95 & 4.59$^{\dagger}$ & 0.85 & 5.11 & 0.68 \\11Momentum & 2.48$^{\dagger}$ & 1.00 & 4.24$^{\dagger}$ & 1.01 & 5.73$^{\dagger}$ & 1.07 & 7.54 & 1.00 \\12Random walk with drift & 2.54**$^{\dagger}$ & 1.03 & 4.23 & 1.01 & 5.27 & 0.98 & 7.23 & 0.96 \\13Seasonal naive & 2.88*** & 1.16 & 4.29 & 1.02 & 5.21 & 0.97 & 7.23 & 0.96 \\14AR(2), cell & 2.43$^{\dagger}$ & 0.98 & 3.76*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.90 & 4.34$^{\dagger}$ & 0.81 & 4.74$^{\dagger}$ & 0.63 \\15Local linear trend & 3.04*** & 1.23 & 6.46*** & 1.54 & 10.27*** & 1.91 & 16.06*** & 2.14 \\16Ridge (panel) & 2.39*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.97 & 3.52*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.84 & 4.76$^{\dagger}$ & 0.89 & 9.11 & 1.21 \\17LightGBM (panel) & 2.15***$^{\dagger}$ & 0.87 & 3.16***$^{\dagger}$ & 0.75 & 4.02*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.75 & 5.69 & 0.76 \\18MLP (panel) & 2.71$^{\dagger}$ & 1.10 & 3.81$^{\dagger}$ & 0.91 & 5.00$^{\dagger}$ & 0.93 & 11.50 & 1.53 \\19LSTM & 3.29*$^{\dagger}$ & 1.33 & 3.88$^{\dagger}$ & 0.93 & 4.57$^{\dagger}$ & 0.85 & 7.56 & 1.00 \\20GRU & 3.07$^{\dagger}$ & 1.24 & 3.67$^{\dagger}$ & 0.88 & 4.60$^{\dagger}$ & 0.86 & 7.79 & 1.04 \\21TCN & 2.70$^{\dagger}$ & 1.09 & 3.81$^{\dagger}$ & 0.91 & 4.83$^{\dagger}$ & 0.90 & 8.31 & 1.10 \\22TFT-lite & 2.72$^{\dagger}$ & 1.10 & 4.13$^{\dagger}$ & 0.99 & 5.19 & 0.97 & 6.93 & 0.92 \\23BHPF & 2.40*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.97 & 3.57*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.85 & 4.74$^{\dagger}$ & 0.88 & 8.09 & 1.08 \\24RAREF & 2.39*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.97 & 3.58*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.85 & 4.69$^{\dagger}$ & 0.87 & 8.76 & 1.16 \\25QANSS & 2.30**$^{\dagger}$ & 0.93 & 3.48**$^{\dagger}$ & 0.83 & 4.51$^{\dagger}$ & 0.84 & 8.10 & 1.08 \\26DSGFN & 2.53$^{\dagger}$ & 1.02 & 3.69$^{\dagger}$ & 0.88 & 4.79$^{\dagger}$ & 0.89 & 8.33 & 1.11 \\27QREFA & 2.36*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.96 & 3.42**$^{\dagger}$ & 0.82 & 4.48$^{\dagger}$ & 0.83 & 7.61 & 1.01 \\28\bottomrule29\end{tabular}}30\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Target: final SHARP-HPI log change. MAE in log points ×100; MASE relative to the naive reference. Stars: Diebold--Mariano test of equal squared-error loss against the reference on per-origin mean losses (* 10\%, ** 5\%, *** 1\%); $\dagger$ = in the 90\% model confidence set of the horizon.}31\end{table}32