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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering\scriptsize3\caption{Task B, horizon 3 — MAE (×100) and MASE (in parentheses) by year of the forecast origin}\label{tab:year_b}4\begin{threeparttable}5\begin{tabular}{lrrrr}6\toprule7Model & Origins in 2023 & Origins in 2024 & Origins in 2025 & Origins in 2026 \\8\midrule9No change & 3.75 (1.00) & 4.40 (1.00) & 3.94 (1.00) & 4.35 (1.00) \\10Mean growth & 3.63 (0.97) & 4.15 (0.94) & 3.81 (0.97) & 4.13 (0.95) \\11Momentum & 3.57 (0.95) & 4.53 (1.03) & 3.99 (1.01) & 4.26 (0.98) \\12AR(2), cell & 2.87 (0.77) & 3.78 (0.86) & 3.78 (0.96) & 3.82 (0.88) \\13Ridge (panel) & 3.28 (0.87) & 3.23 (0.73) & 3.63 (0.92) & 3.89 (0.90) \\14LightGBM (panel) & 3.17 (0.85) & 3.35 (0.76) & 3.07 (0.78) & 2.95 (0.68) \\15TFT-lite & 3.07 (0.82) & 5.06 (1.15) & 3.66 (0.93) & 3.41 (0.78) \\16BHPF & 3.59 (0.96) & 3.32 (0.76) & 3.66 (0.93) & 3.89 (0.89) \\17RAREF & 3.29 (0.88) & 3.25 (0.74) & 3.58 (0.91) & 4.29 (0.99) \\18QANSS & 3.16 (0.84) & 3.48 (0.79) & 3.40 (0.86) & 3.69 (0.85) \\19DSGFN & 2.77 (0.74) & 3.91 (0.89) & 3.76 (0.95) & 3.25 (0.75) \\20QREFA & 2.88 (0.77) & 3.39 (0.77) & 3.57 (0.91) & 3.27 (0.75) \\21\bottomrule22\end{tabular}23\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item 2023 covers origins from October to December only; 2026 covers January to June.\end{tablenotes}24\end{threeparttable}25\end{table}26