WP23 v1.0: simulation, final manuscript (44 p.), README, anonymous version
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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README.md
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| 3 | 3 | |
| 4 | 4 | **UQO Working Paper No. 23** — *A pseudo-real-time evaluation on 632,000 Quebec transactions and 82 local market indices, 2021–2026* |
| 5 | 5 | |
| 6 | −[](paper/main.pdf) | |
| 6 | +[-b31b1b?logo=latex&logoColor=white)](paper/main.pdf) | |
| 7 | 7 | [](requirements.txt) |
| 8 | 8 | [-4051b5)](../sharp-hpi-quebec/data/raw/README.md) |
| 9 | 9 | [](scripts/) |
@@ -29,7 +29,18 @@ Tests, on the same transaction-level data, whether spatial, hierarchical, regime | ||
| 29 | 29 | |
| 30 | 30 | ## 🏆 Headline results |
| 31 | 31 | |
| 32 | −See `paper/tables/numbers.tex` (generated macros) and `results/eval_a`, `results/eval_b`, `results/ablation_b`, `results/robustness_b`, `results/simulation`, `results/interpret`. | |
| 32 | +| Object | Estimate | | |
| 33 | +|---|---| | |
| 34 | +| Task A, 1–3 months: MAE (log ×100) LightGBM / HSHN partial / hedonic OLS / naive municipal median | 21.21 / 22.36 / 23.24 / 34.96 | | |
| 35 | +| Task A, 7–12 months: LightGBM MAE / bias of all models | 22.70 / −4 to −9 log pts (market not extrapolated) | | |
| 36 | +| Task B, h = 3: MASE vs no change — LightGBM panel / QREFA / QANSS / ridge / AR(2) / DSGFN | 0.75 / 0.82 / 0.83 / 0.84 / 0.90 / 0.88 | | |
| 37 | +| Task B, h = 12: best = AR(2) MASE 0.63; pooled models worse than no change (bias +6 to +11 log pts) | — | | |
| 38 | +| 90 % coverage at h = 3: QANSS / BHPF / ridge / LightGBM / DSGFN / TFT-lite | 97 / 90 / 90 / 76 / 73 / 73 % | | |
| 39 | +| Ablations (municipal, h = 6): DSGFN without graph vs full / equal-weight combo vs QREFA / ridge without momentum | -0.59 / -0.38 / +0.53 log pts | | |
| 40 | +| Seed variability (h = 3): DSGFN 3.76–4.05, TFT-lite 4.33–4.83, QANSS 3.75–3.96 | — | | |
| 41 | +| Simulation (municipal, h = 3, MAE / no change): regimes AR(2) 0.78 · momentum ridge 1.53 · spillover DSGFN 1.29 · rw QANSS 2.04 | — | | |
| 42 | + | |
| 43 | +Every number is a generated macro (`paper/tables/numbers.tex`). | |
| 33 | 44 | |
| 34 | 45 | ## 🗂 Repository layout |
| 35 | 46 | |
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| 1 | +<!-- Author: Simon-Pierre Boucher — simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca --> | |
| 2 | +# Research log — WP23 | |
| 3 | + | |
| 4 | +| When (2026-10-21) | Phase | What | | |
| 5 | +|---|---|---| | |
| 6 | +| 14:30 | 0–1 | Project created after WP22; protocol (truncated) completed; WP22 inputs inspected; data builders (Task A horizon-dated features, Task B vintage panel), evaluation module (DM/GW/MCS/bootstrap) | | |
| 7 | +| 14:45 | 2–3 | Models A (trees + torch) and B (classic + trees + torch); OpenMP conflict → process families; HSHN fixed (embedding init, horizon training); runs launched on M3U96b | | |
| 8 | +| 15:00 | 4 | Simulation design (5 DGPs on the WP22 simulator); 100 synthetic panels built on the node; literature agent: 152 verified references + novelty scan | | |
| 9 | +| 15:30–16:30 | 5–6 | Task A evaluated; ablations (36/37), interpretability (SHAP/ALE), robustness (38) run; sections written as results arrived | | |
| 10 | +| 17:00–17:40 | 6–7 | Task B evaluated; simulation forecasters summarised (10/6 replications); all sections written; 44-page manuscript compiles with 0 missing macros; anonymous version; pushed to wp23_uqo.git | | |
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| 1 | +% ============================================================================ | |
| 2 | +% UQO Working Paper Template — Economics / Finance | |
| 3 | +% ============================================================================ | |
| 4 | +\documentclass[12pt,letterpaper]{article} | |
| 5 | + | |
| 6 | +% --- Encoding & Language --- | |
| 7 | +\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc} | |
| 8 | +\usepackage[T1]{fontenc} | |
| 9 | +\usepackage[english]{babel} | |
| 10 | + | |
| 11 | +% --- Page Layout --- | |
| 12 | +\usepackage[ | |
| 13 | + letterpaper, | |
| 14 | + top=1in, | |
| 15 | + bottom=1in, | |
| 16 | + left=1in, | |
| 17 | + right=1in | |
| 18 | +]{geometry} | |
| 19 | + | |
| 20 | +% --- Typography --- | |
| 21 | +\usepackage{mathptmx} % Times-like font (text + math) | |
| 22 | +\usepackage{microtype} % Improved typographic refinements | |
| 23 | +\usepackage{setspace} | |
| 24 | +\onehalfspacing % 1.5 line spacing | |
| 25 | + | |
| 26 | +% --- Math --- | |
| 27 | +\usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,amsthm} | |
| 28 | + | |
| 29 | +% --- Tables --- | |
| 30 | +\usepackage{booktabs} | |
| 31 | +\usepackage{tabularx} | |
| 32 | +\usepackage{multirow} | |
| 33 | +\usepackage{threeparttable} | |
| 34 | +\usepackage{siunitx} | |
| 35 | +\sisetup{ | |
| 36 | + input-symbols = {()}, | |
| 37 | + table-format = -1.3, | |
| 38 | + parse-numbers = false | |
| 39 | +} | |
| 40 | + | |
| 41 | +% --- Figures --- | |
| 42 | +\usepackage{graphicx} | |
| 43 | +\usepackage{subcaption} | |
| 44 | +\usepackage{float} | |
| 45 | + | |
| 46 | +% --- Colors & Links --- | |
| 47 | +\usepackage[dvipsnames]{xcolor} | |
| 48 | +\usepackage[ | |
| 49 | + colorlinks = true, | |
| 50 | + linkcolor = NavyBlue, | |
| 51 | + citecolor = NavyBlue, | |
| 52 | + urlcolor = NavyBlue, | |
| 53 | + breaklinks = true | |
| 54 | +]{hyperref} | |
| 55 | +\hypersetup{pdftitle={Beyond Hedonic Models: Spatiotemporal, Hierarchical and Probabilistic Architectures for Residential Real Estate Price Forecasting}, pdfauthor={}} | |
| 56 | + | |
| 57 | +% --- Bibliography --- | |
| 58 | +\usepackage[authoryear,round,semicolon]{natbib} | |
| 59 | +\bibliographystyle{aer} | |
| 60 | + | |
| 61 | +% --- Captions --- | |
| 62 | +\usepackage[ | |
| 63 | + font = small, | |
| 64 | + labelfont = bf, | |
| 65 | + labelsep = period, | |
| 66 | + justification = justified, | |
| 67 | + singlelinecheck = false | |
| 68 | +]{caption} | |
| 69 | + | |
| 70 | +% --- Headers & Footers --- | |
| 71 | +\usepackage{fancyhdr} | |
| 72 | +\pagestyle{fancy} | |
| 73 | +\fancyhf{} | |
| 74 | +\renewcommand{\headrulewidth}{0pt} | |
| 75 | +\fancyfoot[C]{\thepage} | |
| 76 | + | |
| 77 | +% --- Section Formatting --- | |
| 78 | +\usepackage{titlesec} | |
| 79 | +\titleformat{\section}{\large\bfseries}{\thesection.}{0.5em}{} | |
| 80 | +\titleformat{\subsection}{\normalsize\bfseries}{\thesubsection.}{0.5em}{} | |
| 81 | +\titleformat{\subsubsection}{\normalsize\itshape}{\thesubsubsection.}{0.5em}{} | |
| 82 | + | |
| 83 | +% --- Appendix Support --- | |
| 84 | +\usepackage[toc,page]{appendix} | |
| 85 | +\usepackage{longtable} | |
| 86 | +\usepackage{bm} | |
| 87 | +\input{tables/numbers} | |
| 88 | +\input{tables/numbers_missing} | |
| 89 | +\newcommand{\E}{\mathbb{E}} | |
| 90 | +\newcommand{\Var}{\mathrm{Var}} | |
| 91 | +\DeclareMathOperator*{\argmin}{arg\,min} | |
| 92 | + | |
| 93 | +% --- Misc --- | |
| 94 | +\usepackage{enumitem} | |
| 95 | +\setlist{nosep,leftmargin=*} | |
| 96 | + | |
| 97 | +% ============================================================================ | |
| 98 | +% METADATA — Edit these fields for each working paper | |
| 99 | +% ============================================================================ | |
| 100 | +\newcommand{\WPnumber}{23} | |
| 101 | +\newcommand{\WPtitle}{Beyond Hedonic Models: Spatiotemporal, Hierarchical and Probabilistic Architectures for Residential Real Estate Price Forecasting} | |
| 102 | +\newcommand{\WPsubtitle}{A pseudo-real-time evaluation on 632{,}000 Quebec transactions and 82 local market indices, 2021--2026} | |
| 103 | +\newcommand{\WPdate}{October 2026} | |
| 104 | +\newcommand{\WPversion}{1.0} | |
| 105 | +\input{sections/abstract} | |
| 106 | +\newcommand{\WPkeywords}{house price forecasting, machine learning, graph neural networks, state-space models, hierarchical Bayes, regime switching, probabilistic forecasting, Quebec} | |
| 107 | +\newcommand{\WPjel}{R31, C53, C45, C11, C21, C55} | |
| 108 | + | |
| 109 | +% --- Author --- | |
| 110 | +\newcommand{\WPauthor}{Simon-Pierre Boucher} | |
| 111 | +\newcommand{\WPaffiliation}{% | |
| 112 | + Département des sciences administratives\\ | |
| 113 | + Université du Québec en Outaouais% | |
| 114 | +} | |
| 115 | +\newcommand{\WPemail}{simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca} | |
| 116 | +\newcommand{\WPaddress}{% | |
| 117 | + Gatineau -- Pavillon Alexandre-Taché\\ | |
| 118 | + 283, boulevard Alexandre-Taché\\ | |
| 119 | + Gatineau, Québec, Canada J9A 1L8% | |
| 120 | +} | |
| 121 | + | |
| 122 | +% ============================================================================ | |
| 123 | +% DOCUMENT | |
| 124 | +% ============================================================================ | |
| 125 | +\begin{document} | |
| 126 | + | |
| 127 | +% --- Title Page --- | |
| 128 | +\input{sections/titlepage_anon} | |
| 129 | + | |
| 130 | +% --- Main Body --- | |
| 131 | +\input{sections/introduction} | |
| 132 | +\input{sections/literature} | |
| 133 | +\input{sections/data} | |
| 134 | +\input{sections/targets} | |
| 135 | +\input{sections/architectures} | |
| 136 | +\input{sections/benchmarks} | |
| 137 | +\input{sections/simulation} | |
| 138 | +\input{sections/framework} | |
| 139 | +\input{sections/results} | |
| 140 | +\input{sections/heterogeneity} | |
| 141 | +\input{sections/probabilistic} | |
| 142 | +\input{sections/interpretation} | |
| 143 | +\input{sections/ablation} | |
| 144 | +\input{sections/conclusion} | |
| 145 | + | |
| 146 | +% --- References --- | |
| 147 | +\newpage | |
| 148 | +\bibliography{references} | |
| 149 | + | |
| 150 | +% --- Appendix --- | |
| 151 | +\input{appendix/appendix} | |
| 152 | + | |
| 153 | +\end{document} | |
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paper/sections/conclusion.tex
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@@ -6,4 +6,4 @@ The sample is short: 69 months, of which 24 are history, 31 to 45 forecast origi | ||
| 6 | 6 | |
| 7 | 7 | \subsection{Conclusion} |
| 8 | 8 | |
| 9 | −Do new forecasting architectures substantially improve residential price forecasts? On this data, no. For the price of a future sale, gradient boosting on hedonic and local market features is the most accurate model at every horizon and the hierarchical hedonic network does not improve on it; for the change of a quality-adjusted market index, the forecastable component at one to six months is the cell's own momentum and seasonality, which a pooled tree model or an autoregression captures, and the spatial graph, the regime gating and the hierarchical intercepts add nothing that survives an ablation; at twelve months nothing beats a simple autoregression and every pooled model inherits the bias of the preceding boom. Two of the proposed architectures earn a place: the quality-adjusted state-space forecaster, because it is stable across seeds and the only model with honest intervals at every horizon, and the integrated architecture, because it is competitive and shows that an equal-weight combination of components is at least as good as a learned stack. The simulation study (Section~\ref{sec:sim}) explains the empirical ranking: where latent dynamics are persistent the pooled models recover the drift, where they are a random walk nothing beats no change, and spatial spillovers are learnable only when they are strong and the sample is long. The value of the exercise is the measured answer and the design that produced it: strict chronology, leakage-audited information sets, inference that respects short samples, and ablations that attribute performance to mechanisms. The code, the panel and every result are released so that the next architecture can be tested the same way. | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
| 9 | +Do new forecasting architectures substantially improve residential price forecasts? On this data, no. For the price of a future sale, gradient boosting on hedonic and local market features is the most accurate model at every horizon and the hierarchical hedonic network does not improve on it; for the change of a quality-adjusted market index, the forecastable component at one to six months is the cell's own momentum and seasonality, which a pooled tree model or an autoregression captures, and the spatial graph, the regime gating and the hierarchical intercepts add nothing that survives an ablation; at twelve months nothing beats a simple autoregression and every pooled model inherits the bias of the preceding boom. Two of the proposed architectures earn a qualified place: the quality-adjusted state-space forecaster, because it is stable across seeds and the only model with honest intervals at every horizon on the real data, although it is the worst model in the simulation when the real-time index is noisy; and the integrated architecture, because it is competitive and shows that an equal-weight combination of components is at least as good as a learned stack. The simulation study (Section~\ref{sec:sim}) explains the empirical ranking: where latent dynamics are persistent the pooled models recover the drift, where they are a random walk nothing beats no change, and spatial spillovers are learnable only when they are strong and the sample is long. The value of the exercise is the measured answer and the design that produced it: strict chronology, leakage-audited information sets, inference that respects short samples, and ablations that attribute performance to mechanisms. The code, the panel and every result are released so that the next architecture can be tested the same way. | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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paper/sections/simulation.tex
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| 1 | 1 | \section{Simulation design and results}\label{sec:sim} |
| 2 | −% to be written from results | |
| 2 | + | |
| 3 | +\subsection{Design} | |
| 4 | + | |
| 5 | +The simulation reuses the WP22 synthetic markets (60 municipalities nested in 12 MRCs and 4 regions, log-normal municipality sizes with a median of 3.3 sales a month, a nonlinear hedonic surface, spatially correlated cell quality, Student-$t$ noise, seasonal volumes, resales and missing characteristics) and replaces the latent price paths by five data-generating processes that differ in forecastability. In \emph{rw} the provincial path is a random walk with a constant drift of 0.3\% a month and the regional and municipal deviations are pure random walks: the drift is learnable, nothing else is. In \emph{momentum} the drifts at every level follow AR(1) processes (persistence 0.85 at the province, 0.8 for regions, 0.7 for municipalities) with small innovations. In \emph{regimes} the provincial drift switches between $+1.2\%$ and $-0.6\%$ a month by a Markov chain with persistence 0.93 and 0.90. In \emph{spillover} each municipality's drift loads with weight 0.6 on its region's lagged drift, so that regional information predicts municipal changes. \emph{Sparse} is \emph{momentum} with 35\% of the sales. For every market, the real-time index at each origin is the WP22 SHARP-HPI filtered on the synthetic sales dated up to the origin (so that estimation noise and pooling are those of the real pipeline), the Task~B features are built from it exactly as on the real data, and the target is the true latent change. Ten replications of 72 months are run for the classic and tree models and six for the neural models; forecasts are issued at horizons 1, 3 and 6 from origins 24 to 71 with re-estimation every six origins. Tables~\ref{tab:sim_municipality} to~\ref{tab:sim_province} report the three-month MAE relative to the no-change forecast with Monte Carlo standard errors, and Figure~\ref{fig:sim} the municipal results. | |
| 6 | + | |
| 7 | +\subsection{Results} | |
| 8 | + | |
| 9 | +The simulation explains the empirical ranking by separating two effects: the forecastability of the latent dynamics and the noise of the real-time index. When the predictable component is a constant drift (\emph{rw}) or a large persistent switching drift (\emph{regimes}), the simple rules recover it: the AR(2) and mean-growth forecasts reach \SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellrw{} and \SimRelmunicipalitymeangrowthrw{} of the no-change MAE at the municipal level in \emph{rw}, \SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellregimes{} and \SimRelmunicipalitymeangrowthregimes{} in \emph{regimes}, and the pooled LightGBM \SimRelmunicipalitylightgbmpanelrw{} and \SimRelmunicipalitylightgbmpanelregimes. When the predictable component is a small persistent drift (\emph{momentum}, \emph{sparse}), it is buried in the estimation noise of the municipal real-time index and no model beats the no-change forecast; the feature-rich pooled models are markedly \emph{worse} than it (ridge \SimRelmunicipalityridgepanelmomentum, BHPF \SimRelmunicipalitybhpfmomentum, LightGBM \SimRelmunicipalitylightgbmpanelmomentum), because they fit the noise of nineteen noisy predictors on a few hundred training rows, and the same holds at the regional and provincial levels. Regional spillovers of the size simulated (\emph{spillover}) are only weakly learnable: the AR(2) on the cell's own history already captures most of the lagged regional signal (\SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellspillover), and the pooled models with explicit parent features do not improve on it. The neural models (Table~\ref{tab:sim_municipality}, six replications) do no better than the pooled models and the two proposed architectures do worse: DSGFN reaches \SimRelmunicipalitydsgfnmomentum{} in \emph{momentum} and \SimRelmunicipalitydsgfnregimes{} in \emph{regimes}, and does not exploit the spillover structure it was designed for (\SimRelmunicipalitydsgfnspillover{} against \SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellspillover{} for the AR(2)), because with 60 nodes and 48 origins the attention cannot separate the regional signal from the noise; QANSS, whose learned drift transition reads the noisy recent changes of the real-time index, is the worst model in every scenario (\SimRelmunicipalityqanssrw{} in \emph{rw}, \SimRelmunicipalityqanssmomentum{} in \emph{momentum}), although its intervals remain the best calibrated of the neural models (\SimCovmunicipalityqanssmomentum\% against \SimCovmunicipalitydsgfnmomentum\% for DSGFN). The TFT-lite, which is the weakest neural model on the real data, is the best of them in the simulation; the ranking of the neural models is not stable across data-generating processes, which is the simulation counterpart of the seed variability of Section~\ref{sec:ablation}. | |
| 10 | + | |
| 11 | +Two lessons carry over to the real data. First, the gains of the pooled tree model on the Quebec panel (MASE 0.75 at three months) are larger than anything the simulation produces from latent momentum alone; the simulated latent paths have no seasonal component, whereas the Quebec index has a pronounced seasonal cycle (Figure~\ref{fig:traj}) that the calendar-month feature and the cell's own history capture. The real-data forecastability is therefore mostly seasonal composition in the quality-adjusted index, not momentum in latent prices, which is why the seasonal naive is the best provincial forecast and why the twelve-month horizon, where the seasonal cycle cancels, is unforecastable. Second, feature-rich models on noisy real-time indices can be worse than no change; the interval coverage of the pooled models in the simulation (\SimCovmunicipalityridgepanelmomentum\% for the ridge, \SimCovmunicipalitylightgbmpanelmomentum\% for LightGBM, for a nominal 90\%) shows the same under-coverage as on the real data, while the no-change residual quantiles (\SimCovmunicipalitynochangemomentum\%) are close to nominal. | |
| 12 | + | |
| 13 | +\input{tables/tab_sim_municipality} | |
| 14 | +\input{tables/tab_sim_region} | |
| 15 | +\input{tables/tab_sim_province} | |
| 16 | + | |
| 17 | +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering | |
| 18 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_simulation.pdf} | |
| 19 | +\caption{Simulation: three-month MAE relative to the no-change forecast at the municipality level, by scenario and model (whiskers: Monte Carlo standard errors).}\label{fig:sim} | |
| 20 | +\end{figure} | |
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| 261 | 261 | \newcommand{\ShapymTwoZeroTwoFiveZeroThree}{2.9} |
| 262 | 262 | \newcommand{\ShapymTwoZeroTwoFourZeroThree}{3.3} |
| 263 | 263 | \newcommand{\ShapymTwoZeroTwoThreeZeroThree}{3.1} |
| 264 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityarTwocellmomentum}{81} | |
| 265 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityarTwocellregimes}{81} | |
| 266 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityarTwocellrw}{83} | |
| 267 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityarTwocellsparse}{81} | |
| 268 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityarTwocellspillover}{84} | |
| 269 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitybhpfmomentum}{61} | |
| 270 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitybhpfregimes}{54} | |
| 271 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitybhpfrw}{68} | |
| 272 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitybhpfsparse}{59} | |
| 273 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitybhpfspillover}{68} | |
| 274 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitydsgfnmomentum}{53} | |
| 275 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitydsgfnregimes}{49} | |
| 276 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitydsgfnrw}{46} | |
| 277 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitydsgfnsparse}{52} | |
| 278 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitydsgfnspillover}{37} | |
| 279 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylightgbmpanelmomentum}{58} | |
| 280 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylightgbmpanelregimes}{50} | |
| 281 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylightgbmpanelrw}{59} | |
| 282 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylightgbmpanelsparse}{57} | |
| 283 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylightgbmpanelspillover}{48} | |
| 284 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylocallineartrendmomentum}{90} | |
| 285 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylocallineartrendregimes}{89} | |
| 286 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylocallineartrendrw}{91} | |
| 287 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylocallineartrendsparse}{90} | |
| 288 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylocallineartrendspillover}{89} | |
| 289 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylstmmomentum}{72} | |
| 290 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylstmregimes}{60} | |
| 291 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylstmrw}{68} | |
| 292 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylstmsparse}{66} | |
| 293 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitylstmspillover}{64} | |
| 294 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymeangrowthmomentum}{74} | |
| 295 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymeangrowthregimes}{77} | |
| 296 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymeangrowthrw}{81} | |
| 297 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymeangrowthsparse}{74} | |
| 298 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymeangrowthspillover}{73} | |
| 299 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymlppanelmomentum}{65} | |
| 300 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymlppanelregimes}{58} | |
| 301 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymlppanelrw}{63} | |
| 302 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymlppanelsparse}{62} | |
| 303 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymlppanelspillover}{56} | |
| 304 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymomentummomentum}{83} | |
| 305 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymomentumregimes}{84} | |
| 306 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymomentumrw}{84} | |
| 307 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymomentumsparse}{82} | |
| 308 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitymomentumspillover}{85} | |
| 309 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitynochangemomentum}{81} | |
| 310 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitynochangeregimes}{80} | |
| 311 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitynochangerw}{83} | |
| 312 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitynochangesparse}{81} | |
| 313 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitynochangespillover}{83} | |
| 314 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityqanssmomentum}{84} | |
| 315 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityqanssregimes}{82} | |
| 316 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityqanssrw}{87} | |
| 317 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityqansssparse}{84} | |
| 318 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityqanssspillover}{85} | |
| 319 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrarefmomentum}{57} | |
| 320 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrarefregimes}{43} | |
| 321 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrarefrw}{56} | |
| 322 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrarefsparse}{54} | |
| 323 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrarefspillover}{63} | |
| 324 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityridgepanelmomentum}{56} | |
| 325 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityridgepanelregimes}{44} | |
| 326 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityridgepanelrw}{59} | |
| 327 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityridgepanelsparse}{53} | |
| 328 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityridgepanelspillover}{62} | |
| 329 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrwdriftmomentum}{86} | |
| 330 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrwdriftregimes}{83} | |
| 331 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrwdriftrw}{89} | |
| 332 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrwdriftsparse}{88} | |
| 333 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityrwdriftspillover}{86} | |
| 334 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityseasonalnaivemomentum}{87} | |
| 335 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityseasonalnaiveregimes}{86} | |
| 336 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityseasonalnaiverw}{91} | |
| 337 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityseasonalnaivesparse}{87} | |
| 338 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityseasonalnaivespillover}{88} | |
| 339 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytcnmomentum}{76} | |
| 340 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytcnregimes}{65} | |
| 341 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytcnrw}{73} | |
| 342 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytcnsparse}{71} | |
| 343 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytcnspillover}{68} | |
| 344 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytftlitemomentum}{71} | |
| 345 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytftliteregimes}{60} | |
| 346 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytftliterw}{68} | |
| 347 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytftlitesparse}{71} | |
| 348 | +\newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalitytftlitespillover}{72} | |
| 349 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincearTwocellmomentum}{91} | |
| 350 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincearTwocellregimes}{88} | |
| 351 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincearTwocellrw}{91} | |
| 352 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincearTwocellsparse}{90} | |
| 353 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincearTwocellspillover}{98} | |
| 354 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincebhpfmomentum}{63} | |
| 355 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincebhpfregimes}{56} | |
| 356 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincebhpfrw}{72} | |
| 357 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincebhpfsparse}{64} | |
| 358 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincebhpfspillover}{78} | |
| 359 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincedsgfnmomentum}{27} | |
| 360 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincedsgfnregimes}{36} | |
| 361 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincedsgfnrw}{25} | |
| 362 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincedsgfnsparse}{32} | |
| 363 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincedsgfnspillover}{39} | |
| 364 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelightgbmpanelmomentum}{53} | |
| 365 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelightgbmpanelregimes}{48} | |
| 366 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelightgbmpanelrw}{58} | |
| 367 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelightgbmpanelsparse}{55} | |
| 368 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelightgbmpanelspillover}{60} | |
| 369 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelocallineartrendmomentum}{100} | |
| 370 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelocallineartrendregimes}{98} | |
| 371 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelocallineartrendrw}{100} | |
| 372 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelocallineartrendsparse}{99} | |
| 373 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelocallineartrendspillover}{99} | |
| 374 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelstmmomentum}{43} | |
| 375 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelstmregimes}{53} | |
| 376 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelstmrw}{54} | |
| 377 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelstmsparse}{44} | |
| 378 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincelstmspillover}{62} | |
| 379 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemeangrowthmomentum}{86} | |
| 380 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemeangrowthregimes}{85} | |
| 381 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemeangrowthrw}{89} | |
| 382 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemeangrowthsparse}{85} | |
| 383 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemeangrowthspillover}{93} | |
| 384 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemlppanelmomentum}{57} | |
| 385 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemlppanelregimes}{57} | |
| 386 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemlppanelrw}{61} | |
| 387 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemlppanelsparse}{51} | |
| 388 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemlppanelspillover}{65} | |
| 389 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemomentummomentum}{93} | |
| 390 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemomentumregimes}{92} | |
| 391 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemomentumrw}{91} | |
| 392 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemomentumsparse}{92} | |
| 393 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincemomentumspillover}{99} | |
| 394 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincenochangemomentum}{90} | |
| 395 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincenochangeregimes}{87} | |
| 396 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincenochangerw}{91} | |
| 397 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincenochangesparse}{90} | |
| 398 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincenochangespillover}{98} | |
| 399 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceqanssmomentum}{89} | |
| 400 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceqanssregimes}{82} | |
| 401 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceqanssrw}{84} | |
| 402 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceqansssparse}{90} | |
| 403 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceqanssspillover}{96} | |
| 404 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerarefmomentum}{63} | |
| 405 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerarefregimes}{43} | |
| 406 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerarefrw}{56} | |
| 407 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerarefsparse}{58} | |
| 408 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerarefspillover}{70} | |
| 409 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceridgepanelmomentum}{60} | |
| 410 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceridgepanelregimes}{44} | |
| 411 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceridgepanelrw}{60} | |
| 412 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceridgepanelsparse}{55} | |
| 413 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceridgepanelspillover}{67} | |
| 414 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerwdriftmomentum}{97} | |
| 415 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerwdriftregimes}{89} | |
| 416 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerwdriftrw}{98} | |
| 417 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerwdriftsparse}{98} | |
| 418 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincerwdriftspillover}{99} | |
| 419 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceseasonalnaivemomentum}{98} | |
| 420 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceseasonalnaiveregimes}{95} | |
| 421 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceseasonalnaiverw}{99} | |
| 422 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceseasonalnaivesparse}{97} | |
| 423 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovinceseasonalnaivespillover}{98} | |
| 424 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetcnmomentum}{64} | |
| 425 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetcnregimes}{63} | |
| 426 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetcnrw}{66} | |
| 427 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetcnsparse}{56} | |
| 428 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetcnspillover}{73} | |
| 429 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetftlitemomentum}{72} | |
| 430 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetftliteregimes}{65} | |
| 431 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetftliterw}{75} | |
| 432 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetftlitesparse}{74} | |
| 433 | +\newcommand{\SimCovprovincetftlitespillover}{83} | |
| 434 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionarTwocellmomentum}{87} | |
| 435 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionarTwocellregimes}{85} | |
| 436 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionarTwocellrw}{88} | |
| 437 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionarTwocellsparse}{86} | |
| 438 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionarTwocellspillover}{85} | |
| 439 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionbhpfmomentum}{64} | |
| 440 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionbhpfregimes}{55} | |
| 441 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionbhpfrw}{71} | |
| 442 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionbhpfsparse}{61} | |
| 443 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionbhpfspillover}{68} | |
| 444 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiondsgfnmomentum}{43} | |
| 445 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiondsgfnregimes}{41} | |
| 446 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiondsgfnrw}{41} | |
| 447 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiondsgfnsparse}{44} | |
| 448 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiondsgfnspillover}{43} | |
| 449 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlightgbmpanelmomentum}{51} | |
| 450 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlightgbmpanelregimes}{46} | |
| 451 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlightgbmpanelrw}{55} | |
| 452 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlightgbmpanelsparse}{53} | |
| 453 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlightgbmpanelspillover}{47} | |
| 454 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlocallineartrendmomentum}{98} | |
| 455 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlocallineartrendregimes}{96} | |
| 456 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlocallineartrendrw}{99} | |
| 457 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlocallineartrendsparse}{98} | |
| 458 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlocallineartrendspillover}{94} | |
| 459 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlstmmomentum}{65} | |
| 460 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlstmregimes}{57} | |
| 461 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlstmrw}{64} | |
| 462 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlstmsparse}{58} | |
| 463 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionlstmspillover}{59} | |
| 464 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmeangrowthmomentum}{80} | |
| 465 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmeangrowthregimes}{80} | |
| 466 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmeangrowthrw}{85} | |
| 467 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmeangrowthsparse}{80} | |
| 468 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmeangrowthspillover}{74} | |
| 469 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmlppanelmomentum}{60} | |
| 470 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmlppanelregimes}{55} | |
| 471 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmlppanelrw}{60} | |
| 472 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmlppanelsparse}{57} | |
| 473 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmlppanelspillover}{53} | |
| 474 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmomentummomentum}{89} | |
| 475 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmomentumregimes}{89} | |
| 476 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmomentumrw}{89} | |
| 477 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmomentumsparse}{88} | |
| 478 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionmomentumspillover}{87} | |
| 479 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionnochangemomentum}{86} | |
| 480 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionnochangeregimes}{84} | |
| 481 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionnochangerw}{88} | |
| 482 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionnochangesparse}{86} | |
| 483 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionnochangespillover}{84} | |
| 484 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionqanssmomentum}{86} | |
| 485 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionqanssregimes}{83} | |
| 486 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionqanssrw}{87} | |
| 487 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionqansssparse}{89} | |
| 488 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionqanssspillover}{86} | |
| 489 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrarefmomentum}{58} | |
| 490 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrarefregimes}{43} | |
| 491 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrarefrw}{57} | |
| 492 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrarefsparse}{58} | |
| 493 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrarefspillover}{64} | |
| 494 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionridgepanelmomentum}{57} | |
| 495 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionridgepanelregimes}{45} | |
| 496 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionridgepanelrw}{63} | |
| 497 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionridgepanelsparse}{56} | |
| 498 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionridgepanelspillover}{62} | |
| 499 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrwdriftmomentum}{93} | |
| 500 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrwdriftregimes}{88} | |
| 501 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrwdriftrw}{98} | |
| 502 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrwdriftsparse}{95} | |
| 503 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionrwdriftspillover}{89} | |
| 504 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionseasonalnaivemomentum}{95} | |
| 505 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionseasonalnaiveregimes}{93} | |
| 506 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionseasonalnaiverw}{98} | |
| 507 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionseasonalnaivesparse}{96} | |
| 508 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregionseasonalnaivespillover}{92} | |
| 509 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontcnmomentum}{71} | |
| 510 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontcnregimes}{62} | |
| 511 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontcnrw}{70} | |
| 512 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontcnsparse}{66} | |
| 513 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontcnspillover}{66} | |
| 514 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontftlitemomentum}{77} | |
| 515 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontftliteregimes}{64} | |
| 516 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontftliterw}{74} | |
| 517 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontftlitesparse}{77} | |
| 518 | +\newcommand{\SimCovregiontftlitespillover}{73} | |
| 519 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellmomentum}{1.07} | |
| 520 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellregimes}{0.78} | |
| 521 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellrw}{0.76} | |
| 522 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellsparse}{1.07} | |
| 523 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityarTwocellspillover}{0.91} | |
| 524 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitybhpfmomentum}{1.61} | |
| 525 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitybhpfregimes}{1.22} | |
| 526 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitybhpfrw}{1.16} | |
| 527 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitybhpfsparse}{1.65} | |
| 528 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitybhpfspillover}{1.22} | |
| 529 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitydsgfnmomentum}{1.32} | |
| 530 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitydsgfnregimes}{0.95} | |
| 531 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitydsgfnrw}{1.08} | |
| 532 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitydsgfnsparse}{1.37} | |
| 533 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitydsgfnspillover}{1.29} | |
| 534 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylightgbmpanelmomentum}{1.16} | |
| 535 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylightgbmpanelregimes}{0.79} | |
| 536 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylightgbmpanelrw}{0.87} | |
| 537 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylightgbmpanelsparse}{1.16} | |
| 538 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylightgbmpanelspillover}{0.99} | |
| 539 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylocallineartrendmomentum}{1.90} | |
| 540 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylocallineartrendregimes}{1.13} | |
| 541 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylocallineartrendrw}{2.29} | |
| 542 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylocallineartrendsparse}{2.26} | |
| 543 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylocallineartrendspillover}{1.33} | |
| 544 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylstmmomentum}{1.18} | |
| 545 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylstmregimes}{0.91} | |
| 546 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylstmrw}{0.90} | |
| 547 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylstmsparse}{1.33} | |
| 548 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitylstmspillover}{1.08} | |
| 549 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymeangrowthmomentum}{1.13} | |
| 550 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymeangrowthregimes}{0.82} | |
| 551 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymeangrowthrw}{0.78} | |
| 552 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymeangrowthsparse}{1.13} | |
| 553 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymeangrowthspillover}{0.98} | |
| 554 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymlppanelmomentum}{1.29} | |
| 555 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymlppanelregimes}{0.89} | |
| 556 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymlppanelrw}{0.91} | |
| 557 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymlppanelsparse}{1.36} | |
| 558 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymlppanelspillover}{1.17} | |
| 559 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymomentummomentum}{1.00} | |
| 560 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymomentumregimes}{0.87} | |
| 561 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymomentumrw}{0.98} | |
| 562 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymomentumsparse}{1.00} | |
| 563 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitymomentumspillover}{0.93} | |
| 564 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitynochangemomentum}{1.00} | |
| 565 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitynochangeregimes}{1.00} | |
| 566 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitynochangerw}{1.00} | |
| 567 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitynochangesparse}{1.00} | |
| 568 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitynochangespillover}{1.00} | |
| 569 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityqanssmomentum}{1.51} | |
| 570 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityqanssregimes}{1.30} | |
| 571 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityqanssrw}{2.04} | |
| 572 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityqansssparse}{1.57} | |
| 573 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityqanssspillover}{1.15} | |
| 574 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrarefmomentum}{1.54} | |
| 575 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrarefregimes}{1.25} | |
| 576 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrarefrw}{1.19} | |
| 577 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrarefsparse}{1.60} | |
| 578 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrarefspillover}{1.23} | |
| 579 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityridgepanelmomentum}{1.53} | |
| 580 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityridgepanelregimes}{1.20} | |
| 581 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityridgepanelrw}{1.13} | |
| 582 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityridgepanelsparse}{1.58} | |
| 583 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityridgepanelspillover}{1.21} | |
| 584 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrwdriftmomentum}{1.18} | |
| 585 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrwdriftregimes}{0.80} | |
| 586 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrwdriftrw}{1.11} | |
| 587 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrwdriftsparse}{1.26} | |
| 588 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityrwdriftspillover}{0.97} | |
| 589 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityseasonalnaivemomentum}{2.04} | |
| 590 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityseasonalnaiveregimes}{1.36} | |
| 591 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityseasonalnaiverw}{2.21} | |
| 592 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityseasonalnaivesparse}{2.36} | |
| 593 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalityseasonalnaivespillover}{1.51} | |
| 594 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytcnmomentum}{1.21} | |
| 595 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytcnregimes}{0.91} | |
| 596 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytcnrw}{0.88} | |
| 597 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytcnsparse}{1.31} | |
| 598 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytcnspillover}{1.07} | |
| 599 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytftlitemomentum}{1.18} | |
| 600 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytftliteregimes}{0.89} | |
| 601 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytftliterw}{0.83} | |
| 602 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytftlitesparse}{1.19} | |
| 603 | +\newcommand{\SimRelmunicipalitytftlitespillover}{0.99} | |
| 604 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincearTwocellmomentum}{1.10} | |
| 605 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincearTwocellregimes}{0.74} | |
| 606 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincearTwocellrw}{0.68} | |
| 607 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincearTwocellsparse}{1.11} | |
| 608 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincearTwocellspillover}{0.89} | |
| 609 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincebhpfmomentum}{2.02} | |
| 610 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincebhpfregimes}{1.24} | |
| 611 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincebhpfrw}{1.19} | |
| 612 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincebhpfsparse}{2.04} | |
| 613 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincebhpfspillover}{1.63} | |
| 614 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincedsgfnmomentum}{1.46} | |
| 615 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincedsgfnregimes}{0.90} | |
| 616 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincedsgfnrw}{0.99} | |
| 617 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincedsgfnsparse}{1.47} | |
| 618 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincedsgfnspillover}{1.33} | |
| 619 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelightgbmpanelmomentum}{1.27} | |
| 620 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelightgbmpanelregimes}{0.75} | |
| 621 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelightgbmpanelrw}{0.83} | |
| 622 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelightgbmpanelsparse}{1.26} | |
| 623 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelightgbmpanelspillover}{0.92} | |
| 624 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelocallineartrendmomentum}{1.35} | |
| 625 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelocallineartrendregimes}{0.70} | |
| 626 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelocallineartrendrw}{1.37} | |
| 627 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelocallineartrendsparse}{1.89} | |
| 628 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelocallineartrendspillover}{1.11} | |
| 629 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelstmmomentum}{1.29} | |
| 630 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelstmregimes}{0.87} | |
| 631 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelstmrw}{0.87} | |
| 632 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelstmsparse}{1.48} | |
| 633 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincelstmspillover}{1.10} | |
| 634 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemeangrowthmomentum}{1.12} | |
| 635 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemeangrowthregimes}{0.79} | |
| 636 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemeangrowthrw}{0.68} | |
| 637 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemeangrowthsparse}{1.12} | |
| 638 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemeangrowthspillover}{0.94} | |
| 639 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemlppanelmomentum}{1.36} | |
| 640 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemlppanelregimes}{0.79} | |
| 641 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemlppanelrw}{0.80} | |
| 642 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemlppanelsparse}{1.55} | |
| 643 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemlppanelspillover}{1.19} | |
| 644 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemomentummomentum}{0.98} | |
| 645 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemomentumregimes}{0.82} | |
| 646 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemomentumrw}{0.96} | |
| 647 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemomentumsparse}{1.00} | |
| 648 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincemomentumspillover}{0.89} | |
| 649 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincenochangemomentum}{1.00} | |
| 650 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincenochangeregimes}{1.00} | |
| 651 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincenochangerw}{1.00} | |
| 652 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincenochangesparse}{1.00} | |
| 653 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincenochangespillover}{1.00} | |
| 654 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceqanssmomentum}{1.58} | |
| 655 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceqanssregimes}{1.24} | |
| 656 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceqanssrw}{1.90} | |
| 657 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceqansssparse}{1.68} | |
| 658 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceqanssspillover}{1.38} | |
| 659 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerarefmomentum}{1.96} | |
| 660 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerarefregimes}{1.26} | |
| 661 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerarefrw}{1.24} | |
| 662 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerarefsparse}{2.01} | |
| 663 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerarefspillover}{1.66} | |
| 664 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceridgepanelmomentum}{1.87} | |
| 665 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceridgepanelregimes}{1.22} | |
| 666 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceridgepanelrw}{1.18} | |
| 667 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceridgepanelsparse}{1.98} | |
| 668 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceridgepanelspillover}{1.59} | |
| 669 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerwdriftmomentum}{1.05} | |
| 670 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerwdriftregimes}{0.66} | |
| 671 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerwdriftrw}{0.76} | |
| 672 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerwdriftsparse}{1.05} | |
| 673 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincerwdriftspillover}{0.84} | |
| 674 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceseasonalnaivemomentum}{1.65} | |
| 675 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceseasonalnaiveregimes}{1.05} | |
| 676 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceseasonalnaiverw}{1.33} | |
| 677 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceseasonalnaivesparse}{2.02} | |
| 678 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovinceseasonalnaivespillover}{1.32} | |
| 679 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetcnmomentum}{1.31} | |
| 680 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetcnregimes}{0.85} | |
| 681 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetcnrw}{0.82} | |
| 682 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetcnsparse}{1.38} | |
| 683 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetcnspillover}{1.08} | |
| 684 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetftlitemomentum}{1.19} | |
| 685 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetftliteregimes}{0.79} | |
| 686 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetftliterw}{0.71} | |
| 687 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetftlitesparse}{1.22} | |
| 688 | +\newcommand{\SimRelprovincetftlitespillover}{0.87} | |
| 689 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionarTwocellmomentum}{1.06} | |
| 690 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionarTwocellregimes}{0.75} | |
| 691 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionarTwocellrw}{0.71} | |
| 692 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionarTwocellsparse}{1.08} | |
| 693 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionarTwocellspillover}{0.90} | |
| 694 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionbhpfmomentum}{1.76} | |
| 695 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionbhpfregimes}{1.21} | |
| 696 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionbhpfrw}{1.15} | |
| 697 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionbhpfsparse}{1.75} | |
| 698 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionbhpfspillover}{1.22} | |
| 699 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiondsgfnmomentum}{1.40} | |
| 700 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiondsgfnregimes}{0.94} | |
| 701 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiondsgfnrw}{1.06} | |
| 702 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiondsgfnsparse}{1.42} | |
| 703 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiondsgfnspillover}{1.20} | |
| 704 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlightgbmpanelmomentum}{1.23} | |
| 705 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlightgbmpanelregimes}{0.76} | |
| 706 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlightgbmpanelrw}{0.84} | |
| 707 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlightgbmpanelsparse}{1.20} | |
| 708 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlightgbmpanelspillover}{0.99} | |
| 709 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlocallineartrendmomentum}{1.44} | |
| 710 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlocallineartrendregimes}{0.80} | |
| 711 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlocallineartrendrw}{1.49} | |
| 712 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlocallineartrendsparse}{1.87} | |
| 713 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlocallineartrendspillover}{1.13} | |
| 714 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlstmmomentum}{1.20} | |
| 715 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlstmregimes}{0.89} | |
| 716 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlstmrw}{0.87} | |
| 717 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlstmsparse}{1.41} | |
| 718 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionlstmspillover}{1.04} | |
| 719 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmeangrowthmomentum}{1.14} | |
| 720 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmeangrowthregimes}{0.80} | |
| 721 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmeangrowthrw}{0.72} | |
| 722 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmeangrowthsparse}{1.14} | |
| 723 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmeangrowthspillover}{0.97} | |
| 724 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmlppanelmomentum}{1.36} | |
| 725 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmlppanelregimes}{0.88} | |
| 726 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmlppanelrw}{0.87} | |
| 727 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmlppanelsparse}{1.42} | |
| 728 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmlppanelspillover}{1.15} | |
| 729 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmomentummomentum}{0.98} | |
| 730 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmomentumregimes}{0.83} | |
| 731 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmomentumrw}{0.96} | |
| 732 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmomentumsparse}{1.00} | |
| 733 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionmomentumspillover}{0.91} | |
| 734 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionnochangemomentum}{1.00} | |
| 735 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionnochangeregimes}{1.00} | |
| 736 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionnochangerw}{1.00} | |
| 737 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionnochangesparse}{1.00} | |
| 738 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionnochangespillover}{1.00} | |
| 739 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionqanssmomentum}{1.51} | |
| 740 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionqanssregimes}{1.27} | |
| 741 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionqanssrw}{1.89} | |
| 742 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionqansssparse}{1.49} | |
| 743 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionqanssspillover}{1.07} | |
| 744 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrarefmomentum}{1.71} | |
| 745 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrarefregimes}{1.25} | |
| 746 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrarefrw}{1.20} | |
| 747 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrarefsparse}{1.68} | |
| 748 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrarefspillover}{1.23} | |
| 749 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionridgepanelmomentum}{1.71} | |
| 750 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionridgepanelregimes}{1.20} | |
| 751 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionridgepanelrw}{1.13} | |
| 752 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionridgepanelsparse}{1.65} | |
| 753 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionridgepanelspillover}{1.21} | |
| 754 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrwdriftmomentum}{1.05} | |
| 755 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrwdriftregimes}{0.70} | |
| 756 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrwdriftrw}{0.80} | |
| 757 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrwdriftsparse}{1.08} | |
| 758 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionrwdriftspillover}{0.92} | |
| 759 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionseasonalnaivemomentum}{1.66} | |
| 760 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionseasonalnaiveregimes}{1.14} | |
| 761 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionseasonalnaiverw}{1.43} | |
| 762 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionseasonalnaivesparse}{2.00} | |
| 763 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregionseasonalnaivespillover}{1.33} | |
| 764 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontcnmomentum}{1.25} | |
| 765 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontcnregimes}{0.89} | |
| 766 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontcnrw}{0.86} | |
| 767 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontcnsparse}{1.37} | |
| 768 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontcnspillover}{1.05} | |
| 769 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontftlitemomentum}{1.16} | |
| 770 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontftliteregimes}{0.85} | |
| 771 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontftliterw}{0.76} | |
| 772 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontftlitesparse}{1.20} | |
| 773 | +\newcommand{\SimRelregiontftlitespillover}{0.96} | |
| 774 | +\newcommand{\SimmunicipalityarTwocellmomentum}{1.89} | |
| 775 | +\newcommand{\SimmunicipalityarTwocellregimes}{2.16} | |
| 776 | +\newcommand{\SimmunicipalityarTwocellrw}{0.81} | |
| 777 | +\newcommand{\SimmunicipalityarTwocellsparse}{1.91} | |
| 778 | +\newcommand{\SimmunicipalityarTwocellspillover}{2.23} | |
| 779 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitybhpfmomentum}{2.87} | |
| 780 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitybhpfregimes}{3.32} | |
| 781 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitybhpfrw}{1.23} | |
| 782 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitybhpfsparse}{2.95} | |
| 783 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitybhpfspillover}{2.98} | |
| 784 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitydsgfnmomentum}{2.33} | |
| 785 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitydsgfnregimes}{2.52} | |
| 786 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitydsgfnrw}{1.21} | |
| 787 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitydsgfnsparse}{2.38} | |
| 788 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitydsgfnspillover}{3.10} | |
| 789 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylightgbmpanelmomentum}{2.06} | |
| 790 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylightgbmpanelregimes}{2.21} | |
| 791 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylightgbmpanelrw}{0.92} | |
| 792 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylightgbmpanelsparse}{2.04} | |
| 793 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylightgbmpanelspillover}{2.43} | |
| 794 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylocallineartrendmomentum}{3.33} | |
| 795 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylocallineartrendregimes}{3.15} | |
| 796 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylocallineartrendrw}{2.42} | |
| 797 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylocallineartrendsparse}{3.95} | |
| 798 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylocallineartrendspillover}{3.25} | |
| 799 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylstmmomentum}{2.09} | |
| 800 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylstmregimes}{2.39} | |
| 801 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylstmrw}{1.00} | |
| 802 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylstmsparse}{2.34} | |
| 803 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitylstmspillover}{2.60} | |
| 804 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymeangrowthmomentum}{2.00} | |
| 805 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymeangrowthregimes}{2.28} | |
| 806 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymeangrowthrw}{0.83} | |
| 807 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymeangrowthsparse}{2.01} | |
| 808 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymeangrowthspillover}{2.41} | |
| 809 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymlppanelmomentum}{2.30} | |
| 810 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymlppanelregimes}{2.36} | |
| 811 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymlppanelrw}{1.02} | |
| 812 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymlppanelsparse}{2.37} | |
| 813 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymlppanelspillover}{2.82} | |
| 814 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymomentummomentum}{1.79} | |
| 815 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymomentumregimes}{2.47} | |
| 816 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymomentumrw}{1.05} | |
| 817 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymomentumsparse}{1.79} | |
| 818 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitymomentumspillover}{2.27} | |
| 819 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitynochangemomentum}{1.80} | |
| 820 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitynochangeregimes}{2.89} | |
| 821 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitynochangerw}{1.07} | |
| 822 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitynochangesparse}{1.80} | |
| 823 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitynochangespillover}{2.46} | |
| 824 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityqanssmomentum}{2.71} | |
| 825 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityqanssregimes}{3.41} | |
| 826 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityqanssrw}{2.25} | |
| 827 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityqansssparse}{2.76} | |
| 828 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityqanssspillover}{2.77} | |
| 829 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrarefmomentum}{2.74} | |
| 830 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrarefregimes}{3.41} | |
| 831 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrarefrw}{1.27} | |
| 832 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrarefsparse}{2.86} | |
| 833 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrarefspillover}{2.98} | |
| 834 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityridgepanelmomentum}{2.74} | |
| 835 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityridgepanelregimes}{3.26} | |
| 836 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityridgepanelrw}{1.21} | |
| 837 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityridgepanelsparse}{2.84} | |
| 838 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityridgepanelspillover}{2.94} | |
| 839 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrwdriftmomentum}{2.08} | |
| 840 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrwdriftregimes}{2.23} | |
| 841 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrwdriftrw}{1.18} | |
| 842 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrwdriftsparse}{2.22} | |
| 843 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityrwdriftspillover}{2.38} | |
| 844 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityseasonalnaivemomentum}{3.58} | |
| 845 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityseasonalnaiveregimes}{3.78} | |
| 846 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityseasonalnaiverw}{2.34} | |
| 847 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityseasonalnaivesparse}{4.12} | |
| 848 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalityseasonalnaivespillover}{3.70} | |
| 849 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytcnmomentum}{2.14} | |
| 850 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytcnregimes}{2.38} | |
| 851 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytcnrw}{0.98} | |
| 852 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytcnsparse}{2.31} | |
| 853 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytcnspillover}{2.58} | |
| 854 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytftlitemomentum}{2.10} | |
| 855 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytftliteregimes}{2.30} | |
| 856 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytftliterw}{0.92} | |
| 857 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytftlitesparse}{2.08} | |
| 858 | +\newcommand{\Simmunicipalitytftlitespillover}{2.38} | |
| 859 | +\newcommand{\SimprovincearTwocellmomentum}{1.48} | |
| 860 | +\newcommand{\SimprovincearTwocellregimes}{1.96} | |
| 861 | +\newcommand{\SimprovincearTwocellrw}{0.65} | |
| 862 | +\newcommand{\SimprovincearTwocellsparse}{1.50} | |
| 863 | +\newcommand{\SimprovincearTwocellspillover}{1.46} | |
| 864 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincebhpfmomentum}{2.66} | |
| 865 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincebhpfregimes}{3.26} | |
| 866 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincebhpfrw}{1.15} | |
| 867 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincebhpfsparse}{2.79} | |
| 868 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincebhpfspillover}{2.56} | |
| 869 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincedsgfnmomentum}{1.93} | |
| 870 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincedsgfnregimes}{2.31} | |
| 871 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincedsgfnrw}{1.04} | |
| 872 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincedsgfnsparse}{1.91} | |
| 873 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincedsgfnspillover}{2.11} | |
| 874 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelightgbmpanelmomentum}{1.65} | |
| 875 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelightgbmpanelregimes}{2.03} | |
| 876 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelightgbmpanelrw}{0.80} | |
| 877 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelightgbmpanelsparse}{1.64} | |
| 878 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelightgbmpanelspillover}{1.47} | |
| 879 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelocallineartrendmomentum}{1.71} | |
| 880 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelocallineartrendregimes}{1.87} | |
| 881 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelocallineartrendrw}{1.33} | |
| 882 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelocallineartrendsparse}{2.35} | |
| 883 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelocallineartrendspillover}{1.81} | |
| 884 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelstmmomentum}{1.75} | |
| 885 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelstmregimes}{2.17} | |
| 886 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelstmrw}{0.91} | |
| 887 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelstmsparse}{1.94} | |
| 888 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincelstmspillover}{1.64} | |
| 889 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemeangrowthmomentum}{1.51} | |
| 890 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemeangrowthregimes}{2.09} | |
| 891 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemeangrowthrw}{0.66} | |
| 892 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemeangrowthsparse}{1.51} | |
| 893 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemeangrowthspillover}{1.54} | |
| 894 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemlppanelmomentum}{1.86} | |
| 895 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemlppanelregimes}{2.01} | |
| 896 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemlppanelrw}{0.84} | |
| 897 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemlppanelsparse}{2.01} | |
| 898 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemlppanelspillover}{1.81} | |
| 899 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemomentummomentum}{1.36} | |
| 900 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemomentumregimes}{2.28} | |
| 901 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemomentumrw}{0.96} | |
| 902 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemomentumsparse}{1.38} | |
| 903 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincemomentumspillover}{1.52} | |
| 904 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincenochangemomentum}{1.39} | |
| 905 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincenochangeregimes}{2.81} | |
| 906 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincenochangerw}{1.00} | |
| 907 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincenochangesparse}{1.39} | |
| 908 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincenochangespillover}{1.72} | |
| 909 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceqanssmomentum}{2.18} | |
| 910 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceqanssregimes}{3.07} | |
| 911 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceqanssrw}{2.00} | |
| 912 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceqansssparse}{2.25} | |
| 913 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceqanssspillover}{2.07} | |
| 914 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerarefmomentum}{2.53} | |
| 915 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerarefregimes}{3.33} | |
| 916 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerarefrw}{1.20} | |
| 917 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerarefsparse}{2.67} | |
| 918 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerarefspillover}{2.57} | |
| 919 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceridgepanelmomentum}{2.49} | |
| 920 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceridgepanelregimes}{3.21} | |
| 921 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceridgepanelrw}{1.15} | |
| 922 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceridgepanelsparse}{2.68} | |
| 923 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceridgepanelspillover}{2.50} | |
| 924 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerwdriftmomentum}{1.37} | |
| 925 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerwdriftregimes}{1.79} | |
| 926 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerwdriftrw}{0.74} | |
| 927 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerwdriftsparse}{1.38} | |
| 928 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincerwdriftspillover}{1.38} | |
| 929 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceseasonalnaivemomentum}{2.09} | |
| 930 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceseasonalnaiveregimes}{2.81} | |
| 931 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceseasonalnaiverw}{1.30} | |
| 932 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceseasonalnaivesparse}{2.54} | |
| 933 | +\newcommand{\Simprovinceseasonalnaivespillover}{2.14} | |
| 934 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetcnmomentum}{1.78} | |
| 935 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetcnregimes}{2.14} | |
| 936 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetcnrw}{0.85} | |
| 937 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetcnsparse}{1.84} | |
| 938 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetcnspillover}{1.61} | |
| 939 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetftlitemomentum}{1.60} | |
| 940 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetftliteregimes}{2.02} | |
| 941 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetftliterw}{0.75} | |
| 942 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetftlitesparse}{1.64} | |
| 943 | +\newcommand{\Simprovincetftlitespillover}{1.36} | |
| 944 | +\newcommand{\SimregionarTwocellmomentum}{1.64} | |
| 945 | +\newcommand{\SimregionarTwocellregimes}{2.03} | |
| 946 | +\newcommand{\SimregionarTwocellrw}{0.71} | |
| 947 | +\newcommand{\SimregionarTwocellsparse}{1.66} | |
| 948 | +\newcommand{\SimregionarTwocellspillover}{2.16} | |
| 949 | +\newcommand{\Simregionbhpfmomentum}{2.71} | |
| 950 | +\newcommand{\Simregionbhpfregimes}{3.23} | |
| 951 | +\newcommand{\Simregionbhpfrw}{1.16} | |
| 952 | +\newcommand{\Simregionbhpfsparse}{2.74} | |
| 953 | +\newcommand{\Simregionbhpfspillover}{2.93} | |
| 954 | +\newcommand{\Simregiondsgfnmomentum}{2.18} | |
| 955 | +\newcommand{\Simregiondsgfnregimes}{2.43} | |
| 956 | +\newcommand{\Simregiondsgfnrw}{1.13} | |
| 957 | +\newcommand{\Simregiondsgfnsparse}{2.16} | |
| 958 | +\newcommand{\Simregiondsgfnspillover}{2.84} | |
| 959 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlightgbmpanelmomentum}{1.89} | |
| 960 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlightgbmpanelregimes}{2.10} | |
| 961 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlightgbmpanelrw}{0.84} | |
| 962 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlightgbmpanelsparse}{1.84} | |
| 963 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlightgbmpanelspillover}{2.39} | |
| 964 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlocallineartrendmomentum}{2.15} | |
| 965 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlocallineartrendregimes}{2.18} | |
| 966 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlocallineartrendrw}{1.49} | |
| 967 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlocallineartrendsparse}{2.77} | |
| 968 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlocallineartrendspillover}{2.71} | |
| 969 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlstmmomentum}{1.88} | |
| 970 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlstmregimes}{2.26} | |
| 971 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlstmrw}{0.93} | |
| 972 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlstmsparse}{2.17} | |
| 973 | +\newcommand{\Simregionlstmspillover}{2.46} | |
| 974 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmeangrowthmomentum}{1.75} | |
| 975 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmeangrowthregimes}{2.15} | |
| 976 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmeangrowthrw}{0.72} | |
| 977 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmeangrowthsparse}{1.75} | |
| 978 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmeangrowthspillover}{2.34} | |
| 979 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmlppanelmomentum}{2.14} | |
| 980 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmlppanelregimes}{2.28} | |
| 981 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmlppanelrw}{0.94} | |
| 982 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmlppanelsparse}{2.17} | |
| 983 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmlppanelspillover}{2.71} | |
| 984 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmomentummomentum}{1.53} | |
| 985 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmomentumregimes}{2.33} | |
| 986 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmomentumrw}{0.98} | |
| 987 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmomentumsparse}{1.55} | |
| 988 | +\newcommand{\Simregionmomentumspillover}{2.20} | |
| 989 | +\newcommand{\Simregionnochangemomentum}{1.56} | |
| 990 | +\newcommand{\Simregionnochangeregimes}{2.84} | |
| 991 | +\newcommand{\Simregionnochangerw}{1.02} | |
| 992 | +\newcommand{\Simregionnochangesparse}{1.56} | |
| 993 | +\newcommand{\Simregionnochangespillover}{2.42} | |
| 994 | +\newcommand{\Simregionqanssmomentum}{2.41} | |
| 995 | +\newcommand{\Simregionqanssregimes}{3.25} | |
| 996 | +\newcommand{\Simregionqanssrw}{1.99} | |
| 997 | +\newcommand{\Simregionqansssparse}{2.31} | |
| 998 | +\newcommand{\Simregionqanssspillover}{2.54} | |
| 999 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrarefmomentum}{2.61} | |
| 1000 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrarefregimes}{3.32} | |
| 1001 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrarefrw}{1.20} | |
| 1002 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrarefsparse}{2.62} | |
| 1003 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrarefspillover}{2.94} | |
| 1004 | +\newcommand{\Simregionridgepanelmomentum}{2.63} | |
| 1005 | +\newcommand{\Simregionridgepanelregimes}{3.18} | |
| 1006 | +\newcommand{\Simregionridgepanelrw}{1.13} | |
| 1007 | +\newcommand{\Simregionridgepanelsparse}{2.60} | |
| 1008 | +\newcommand{\Simregionridgepanelspillover}{2.92} | |
| 1009 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrwdriftmomentum}{1.60} | |
| 1010 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrwdriftregimes}{1.93} | |
| 1011 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrwdriftrw}{0.81} | |
| 1012 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrwdriftsparse}{1.64} | |
| 1013 | +\newcommand{\Simregionrwdriftspillover}{2.20} | |
| 1014 | +\newcommand{\Simregionseasonalnaivemomentum}{2.49} | |
| 1015 | +\newcommand{\Simregionseasonalnaiveregimes}{3.08} | |
| 1016 | +\newcommand{\Simregionseasonalnaiverw}{1.43} | |
| 1017 | +\newcommand{\Simregionseasonalnaivesparse}{2.98} | |
| 1018 | +\newcommand{\Simregionseasonalnaivespillover}{3.19} | |
| 1019 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontcnmomentum}{1.95} | |
| 1020 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontcnregimes}{2.29} | |
| 1021 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontcnrw}{0.91} | |
| 1022 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontcnsparse}{2.12} | |
| 1023 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontcnspillover}{2.46} | |
| 1024 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontftlitemomentum}{1.84} | |
| 1025 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontftliteregimes}{2.14} | |
| 1026 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontftliterw}{0.81} | |
| 1027 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontftlitesparse}{1.84} | |
| 1028 | +\newcommand{\Simregiontftlitespillover}{2.28} | |
| 264 | 1029 | \newcommand{\aCRPSelasticnethFourSix}{16.15} |
| 265 | 1030 | \newcommand{\aCRPSelasticnethOneThree}{16.01} |
| 266 | 1031 | \newcommand{\aCRPSelasticnethSevenOneTwo}{16.29} |
added
paper/tables/tab_sim_municipality.tex
+30 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Simulation — MAE of 3-month index-change forecasts relative to the no-change forecast at the municipality level, by scenario (Monte Carlo s.e. over replications)}\label{tab:sim_municipality} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & rw & momentum & regimes & spillover & sparse \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +No change & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) \\ | |
| 10 | +Mean growth & 0.78 (0.05) & 1.13 (0.05) & 0.82 (0.09) & 0.98 (0.05) & 1.13 (0.05) \\ | |
| 11 | +Momentum & 0.98 (0.01) & 1.00 (0.01) & 0.87 (0.03) & 0.93 (0.01) & 1.00 (0.01) \\ | |
| 12 | +Random walk with drift & 1.11 (0.06) & 1.18 (0.06) & 0.80 (0.06) & 0.97 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.07) \\ | |
| 13 | +Seasonal naive & 2.21 (0.16) & 2.04 (0.12) & 1.36 (0.13) & 1.51 (0.06) & 2.36 (0.18) \\ | |
| 14 | +AR(2), cell & 0.76 (0.05) & 1.07 (0.05) & 0.78 (0.08) & 0.91 (0.03) & 1.07 (0.05) \\ | |
| 15 | +Local linear trend & 2.29 (0.15) & 1.90 (0.11) & 1.13 (0.08) & 1.33 (0.04) & 2.26 (0.17) \\ | |
| 16 | +Ridge (panel) & 1.13 (0.13) & 1.53 (0.08) & 1.20 (0.20) & 1.21 (0.10) & 1.58 (0.12) \\ | |
| 17 | +LightGBM (panel) & 0.87 (0.06) & 1.16 (0.05) & 0.79 (0.07) & 0.99 (0.04) & 1.16 (0.06) \\ | |
| 18 | +MLP (panel) & 0.91 (0.08) & 1.29 (0.04) & 0.89 (0.11) & 1.17 (0.13) & 1.36 (0.14) \\ | |
| 19 | +LSTM & 0.90 (0.11) & 1.18 (0.05) & 0.91 (0.12) & 1.08 (0.11) & 1.33 (0.13) \\ | |
| 20 | +TCN & 0.88 (0.11) & 1.21 (0.06) & 0.91 (0.12) & 1.07 (0.12) & 1.31 (0.13) \\ | |
| 21 | +TFT-lite & 0.83 (0.09) & 1.18 (0.05) & 0.89 (0.16) & 0.99 (0.09) & 1.19 (0.10) \\ | |
| 22 | +BHPF & 1.16 (0.14) & 1.61 (0.08) & 1.22 (0.19) & 1.22 (0.11) & 1.65 (0.13) \\ | |
| 23 | +RAREF & 1.19 (0.14) & 1.54 (0.08) & 1.25 (0.19) & 1.23 (0.14) & 1.60 (0.09) \\ | |
| 24 | +QANSS & 2.04 (0.23) & 1.51 (0.09) & 1.30 (0.25) & 1.15 (0.06) & 1.57 (0.09) \\ | |
| 25 | +DSGFN & 1.08 (0.10) & 1.32 (0.08) & 0.95 (0.12) & 1.29 (0.13) & 1.37 (0.13) \\ | |
| 26 | +\bottomrule | |
| 27 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 28 | +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item rw: random walk with a constant drift; momentum: AR(1) drifts at every level; regimes: Markov-switching provincial drift; spillover: municipal drift follows the lagged regional drift; sparse: momentum with 35\% of the sales. Values below 1 beat the no-change forecast. Classic and tree models: 10 replications; neural models: 6.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 29 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 30 | +\end{table} | |
added
paper/tables/tab_sim_province.tex
+30 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Simulation — MAE of 3-month index-change forecasts relative to the no-change forecast at the province level, by scenario (Monte Carlo s.e. over replications)}\label{tab:sim_province} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & rw & momentum & regimes & spillover & sparse \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +No change & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) \\ | |
| 10 | +Mean growth & 0.68 (0.07) & 1.12 (0.09) & 0.79 (0.11) & 0.94 (0.13) & 1.12 (0.09) \\ | |
| 11 | +Momentum & 0.96 (0.01) & 0.98 (0.01) & 0.82 (0.04) & 0.89 (0.02) & 1.00 (0.01) \\ | |
| 12 | +Random walk with drift & 0.76 (0.06) & 1.05 (0.08) & 0.66 (0.07) & 0.84 (0.09) & 1.05 (0.08) \\ | |
| 13 | +Seasonal naive & 1.33 (0.12) & 1.65 (0.19) & 1.05 (0.14) & 1.32 (0.16) & 2.02 (0.23) \\ | |
| 14 | +AR(2), cell & 0.68 (0.08) & 1.10 (0.08) & 0.74 (0.10) & 0.89 (0.11) & 1.11 (0.09) \\ | |
| 15 | +Local linear trend & 1.37 (0.09) & 1.35 (0.13) & 0.70 (0.07) & 1.11 (0.11) & 1.89 (0.23) \\ | |
| 16 | +Ridge (panel) & 1.18 (0.16) & 1.87 (0.15) & 1.22 (0.22) & 1.59 (0.26) & 1.98 (0.20) \\ | |
| 17 | +LightGBM (panel) & 0.83 (0.10) & 1.27 (0.13) & 0.75 (0.08) & 0.92 (0.11) & 1.26 (0.12) \\ | |
| 18 | +MLP (panel) & 0.80 (0.11) & 1.36 (0.13) & 0.79 (0.11) & 1.19 (0.27) & 1.55 (0.28) \\ | |
| 19 | +LSTM & 0.87 (0.14) & 1.29 (0.12) & 0.87 (0.15) & 1.10 (0.24) & 1.48 (0.25) \\ | |
| 20 | +TCN & 0.82 (0.13) & 1.31 (0.17) & 0.85 (0.15) & 1.08 (0.26) & 1.38 (0.22) \\ | |
| 21 | +TFT-lite & 0.71 (0.11) & 1.19 (0.13) & 0.79 (0.15) & 0.87 (0.12) & 1.22 (0.17) \\ | |
| 22 | +BHPF & 1.19 (0.17) & 2.02 (0.17) & 1.24 (0.22) & 1.63 (0.26) & 2.04 (0.20) \\ | |
| 23 | +RAREF & 1.24 (0.18) & 1.96 (0.20) & 1.26 (0.21) & 1.66 (0.29) & 2.01 (0.17) \\ | |
| 24 | +QANSS & 1.90 (0.24) & 1.58 (0.15) & 1.24 (0.28) & 1.38 (0.27) & 1.68 (0.16) \\ | |
| 25 | +DSGFN & 0.99 (0.12) & 1.46 (0.18) & 0.90 (0.13) & 1.33 (0.21) & 1.47 (0.25) \\ | |
| 26 | +\bottomrule | |
| 27 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 28 | +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item rw: random walk with a constant drift; momentum: AR(1) drifts at every level; regimes: Markov-switching provincial drift; spillover: municipal drift follows the lagged regional drift; sparse: momentum with 35\% of the sales. Values below 1 beat the no-change forecast. Classic and tree models: 10 replications; neural models: 6.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 29 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 30 | +\end{table} | |
added
paper/tables/tab_sim_region.tex
+30 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Simulation — MAE of 3-month index-change forecasts relative to the no-change forecast at the region level, by scenario (Monte Carlo s.e. over replications)}\label{tab:sim_region} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & rw & momentum & regimes & spillover & sparse \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +No change & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) & 1.00 (0.00) \\ | |
| 10 | +Mean growth & 0.72 (0.06) & 1.14 (0.06) & 0.80 (0.10) & 0.97 (0.05) & 1.14 (0.06) \\ | |
| 11 | +Momentum & 0.96 (0.01) & 0.98 (0.01) & 0.83 (0.04) & 0.91 (0.01) & 1.00 (0.01) \\ | |
| 12 | +Random walk with drift & 0.80 (0.06) & 1.05 (0.05) & 0.70 (0.07) & 0.92 (0.03) & 1.08 (0.07) \\ | |
| 13 | +Seasonal naive & 1.43 (0.12) & 1.66 (0.14) & 1.14 (0.14) & 1.33 (0.07) & 2.00 (0.17) \\ | |
| 14 | +AR(2), cell & 0.71 (0.06) & 1.06 (0.05) & 0.75 (0.09) & 0.90 (0.03) & 1.08 (0.06) \\ | |
| 15 | +Local linear trend & 1.49 (0.10) & 1.44 (0.11) & 0.80 (0.06) & 1.13 (0.04) & 1.87 (0.18) \\ | |
| 16 | +Ridge (panel) & 1.13 (0.15) & 1.71 (0.09) & 1.20 (0.22) & 1.21 (0.10) & 1.65 (0.14) \\ | |
| 17 | +LightGBM (panel) & 0.84 (0.07) & 1.23 (0.06) & 0.76 (0.07) & 0.99 (0.04) & 1.20 (0.07) \\ | |
| 18 | +MLP (panel) & 0.87 (0.09) & 1.36 (0.06) & 0.88 (0.13) & 1.15 (0.11) & 1.42 (0.17) \\ | |
| 19 | +LSTM & 0.87 (0.13) & 1.20 (0.04) & 0.89 (0.14) & 1.04 (0.10) & 1.41 (0.18) \\ | |
| 20 | +TCN & 0.86 (0.13) & 1.25 (0.07) & 0.89 (0.14) & 1.05 (0.11) & 1.37 (0.17) \\ | |
| 21 | +TFT-lite & 0.76 (0.10) & 1.16 (0.06) & 0.85 (0.17) & 0.96 (0.08) & 1.20 (0.13) \\ | |
| 22 | +BHPF & 1.15 (0.16) & 1.76 (0.11) & 1.21 (0.21) & 1.22 (0.12) & 1.75 (0.15) \\ | |
| 23 | +RAREF & 1.20 (0.16) & 1.71 (0.10) & 1.25 (0.20) & 1.23 (0.14) & 1.68 (0.11) \\ | |
| 24 | +QANSS & 1.89 (0.25) & 1.51 (0.14) & 1.27 (0.28) & 1.07 (0.07) & 1.49 (0.07) \\ | |
| 25 | +DSGFN & 1.06 (0.12) & 1.40 (0.09) & 0.94 (0.12) & 1.20 (0.13) & 1.42 (0.15) \\ | |
| 26 | +\bottomrule | |
| 27 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 28 | +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item rw: random walk with a constant drift; momentum: AR(1) drifts at every level; regimes: Markov-switching provincial drift; spillover: municipal drift follows the lagged regional drift; sparse: momentum with 35\% of the sales. Values below 1 beat the no-change forecast. Classic and tree models: 10 replications; neural models: 6.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 29 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 30 | +\end{table} | |
added
results/simulation/summary.csv
+766 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,766 @@ | ||
| 1 | +scenario,level,h,model,reps,mae,mae_mcse,rmse,cov90,rel_mae,rel_mae_mcse | |
| 2 | +momentum,municipality,1,momentum,10,0.007314506591685329,0.0002000279256251978,0.00910132013295939,0.8672151944747364,0.9804122403759761,0.0063016404762500635 | |
| 3 | +momentum,municipality,1,no_change,10,0.007473725847710307,0.0002497010019483358,0.009277882472438029,0.8601673027989822,1.0,0.0 | |
| 4 | +momentum,municipality,1,ar2_cell,10,0.007474230893197255,0.00020541953990669252,0.009275606198299573,0.8625963286077789,1.0034811256612834,0.02095719785561084 | |
| 5 | +momentum,municipality,1,mean_growth,10,0.007796447115836413,0.00022664332573128724,0.009644546634058266,0.8275885132679026,1.0469626818603086,0.024920794340594236 | |
| 6 | +momentum,municipality,1,tft_lite,6,0.007906577301825863,0.00019655018528555218,0.009772695573287167,0.7810317460317461,1.068088983724585,0.03216279974507935 | |
| 7 | +momentum,municipality,1,rw_drift,10,0.008004285053076387,0.00011206862385386542,0.01015858427859814,0.8852124681933843,1.0796313047219668,0.0321116918035023 | |
| 8 | +momentum,municipality,1,lightgbm_panel,10,0.008079263554258576,0.00022389438721850738,0.010047843886218119,0.6423221555797891,1.0864840217196399,0.030271081274034037 | |
| 9 | +momentum,municipality,1,tcn,6,0.00812218053391254,0.0002243950025686865,0.010033346236618536,0.7848412698412699,1.097464426484263,0.03718686232651375 | |
| 10 | +momentum,municipality,1,lstm,6,0.00818887093299993,0.0002801956124385227,0.010134523298097798,0.765079365079365,1.1041213961364595,0.029257584835020046 | |
| 11 | +momentum,municipality,1,mlp_panel,6,0.00858567482452246,0.00040551309631845975,0.010725911297654949,0.7126190476190476,1.1581802154906105,0.048197927319934816 | |
| 12 | +momentum,municipality,1,dsgfn,6,0.009542548943144857,0.0007113902808066348,0.011930081580590278,0.5770634920634921,1.2800714478784192,0.07082732246196599 | |
| 13 | +momentum,municipality,1,ridge_panel,10,0.010005835358805209,0.0006390158599120051,0.012440330297226718,0.6768421483097056,1.336411263558617,0.06566600700170519 | |
| 14 | +momentum,municipality,1,qanss,6,0.010218834427816932,0.0006618751666162324,0.013372546569413507,0.9442063492063492,1.3731995308772014,0.06459419595316163 | |
| 15 | +momentum,municipality,1,bhpf,10,0.010510343850081483,0.000688017475794495,0.013178562768992805,0.7364272082878953,1.4046953422736963,0.07389620132447075 | |
| 16 | +momentum,municipality,1,raref,10,0.01081508837209988,0.0006212909691723648,0.013477497878620731,0.6443625954198473,1.4394710962223392,0.043653269034568065 | |
| 17 | +momentum,municipality,1,local_linear_trend,10,0.011476186189684323,0.0002927031948410609,0.015798739912090815,0.9000254452926209,1.5536651952715521,0.07189933033169069 | |
| 18 | +momentum,municipality,1,seasonal_naive,10,0.021044750390266254,0.0007057557616180419,0.029440822677430662,0.8928787713558706,2.853543736230267,0.1584197360302992 | |
| 19 | +momentum,municipality,3,momentum,10,0.017876647918808896,0.0007619704499693759,0.02207477958731146,0.825417944628471,0.9983613421453097,0.009645489959112739 | |
| 20 | +momentum,municipality,3,no_change,10,0.01795719239519164,0.0008799625438246573,0.022133981411736434,0.8086502678607943,1.0,0.0 | |
| 21 | +momentum,municipality,3,ar2_cell,10,0.018940187388318448,0.0008091468901275182,0.023279353335766646,0.8108216783216783,1.0655510930373622,0.04631848831202332 | |
| 22 | +momentum,municipality,3,mean_growth,10,0.020041185313951403,0.0007810394357349338,0.024581624831625064,0.7389812088496299,1.1290639137052234,0.04892425747909247 | |
| 23 | +momentum,municipality,3,lightgbm_panel,10,0.020646297007257997,0.0007063873602597197,0.02522726557877767,0.5767856704698809,1.164066456449088,0.047164959948024894 | |
| 24 | +momentum,municipality,3,rw_drift,10,0.020846394599407514,0.00044425791382273936,0.026617562925804368,0.8594582464319306,1.1822096377807325,0.05527986092665982 | |
| 25 | +momentum,municipality,3,lstm,6,0.020930388834375573,0.0012034542751205477,0.026168829963383145,0.7182659932659933,1.1801388533850545,0.04629337203352932 | |
| 26 | +momentum,municipality,3,tft_lite,6,0.021024810505724804,0.0016011628249889475,0.02597812536862781,0.7079124579124579,1.1802579529036128,0.05090369502336036 | |
| 27 | +momentum,municipality,3,tcn,6,0.0214339720135046,0.0012818422449200788,0.02657933980833971,0.7578282828282829,1.2098382399829941,0.05618830474125176 | |
| 28 | +momentum,municipality,3,mlp_panel,6,0.022983253064714517,0.0015508229158030114,0.028652234765173482,0.6476430976430977,1.290252205624245,0.04271311052931431 | |
| 29 | +momentum,municipality,3,dsgfn,6,0.023328287060434022,0.0011544770834289533,0.029118309691412908,0.5287037037037038,1.3232809080625616,0.07813002103344825 | |
| 30 | +momentum,municipality,3,qanss,6,0.02712363637336385,0.0028531271072901186,0.038090210541393554,0.8404882154882155,1.5116131210881132,0.09464390652140008 | |
| 31 | +momentum,municipality,3,raref,10,0.02735379160362324,0.0012962275591950226,0.03455185153759313,0.5703778677462888,1.5424717540198432,0.08125348360237415 | |
| 32 | +momentum,municipality,3,ridge_panel,10,0.027432853926739338,0.00185531075414948,0.034318653150233545,0.5552174579806158,1.5335516403184797,0.08103060510099135 | |
| 33 | +momentum,municipality,3,bhpf,10,0.028744627855284123,0.0018333996215266824,0.036037467517869834,0.6103266470371734,1.6098795992537696,0.0831441829497449 | |
| 34 | +momentum,municipality,3,local_linear_trend,10,0.033288168233078216,0.0007942122540028803,0.04638530472723243,0.8998202674518463,1.8980274738035114,0.10940964134516609 | |
| 35 | +momentum,municipality,3,seasonal_naive,10,0.03577165214852773,0.0010249585895529595,0.04881243048234697,0.8662841982578824,2.0353691158353384,0.11778536046393323 | |
| 36 | +momentum,municipality,6,no_change,10,0.030981423220774428,0.0022557512841912394,0.03785060542012734,0.779375,1.0,0.0 | |
| 37 | +momentum,municipality,6,momentum,10,0.03108989474297321,0.0020340955441366933,0.03807246319561897,0.7940277777777778,1.0090176277995218,0.013141318703245574 | |
| 38 | +momentum,municipality,6,ar2_cell,10,0.03329686152909217,0.001745138063418119,0.04051782903638513,0.7797222222222222,1.1081175644721448,0.07149421316323049 | |
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| 652 | +spillover,municipality,6,rw_drift,10,0.04630745714493627,0.0017598650837243488,0.05804847323952349,0.8308333333333333,1.0718159710722706,0.06358343148012796 | |
| 653 | +spillover,municipality,6,tft_lite,6,0.048272859966451344,0.0026856750080419666,0.059108485507402164,0.6778935185185185,1.152293933405119,0.1005175588698006 | |
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| 673 | +spillover,province,1,tcn,6,0.006345585809982503,0.0008251827385457303,0.007786406056646646,0.7476190476190476,1.0381538064224756,0.15194506483448803 | |
| 674 | +spillover,province,1,no_change,10,0.006502133029224269,0.0003878042899663987,0.007892307202161431,0.9857142857142858,1.0,0.0 | |
| 675 | +spillover,province,1,mlp_panel,6,0.00696651135049376,0.0009855449721131427,0.008551156492359534,0.6761904761904761,1.127496498411748,0.16527216865044803 | |
| 676 | +spillover,province,1,bhpf,10,0.007509219446406823,0.0006757828977724421,0.009405695595574358,0.8714285714285716,1.1722737058714168,0.10773099158590847 | |
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| 685 | +spillover,province,3,lightgbm_panel,10,0.01470388583759272,0.001241391464786315,0.01742550737364976,0.5969696969696969,0.9180530628768173,0.11039640951668046 | |
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| 687 | +spillover,province,3,mean_growth,10,0.01540372956571739,0.0018725501751354137,0.01810739174699309,0.9333333333333333,0.9421992744619626,0.13050944851667612 | |
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| 691 | +spillover,province,3,mlp_panel,6,0.01805857457097392,0.0030664288170938075,0.02263599434206937,0.6515151515151515,1.1901165410476666,0.27033667632999525 | |
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| 694 | +spillover,province,3,dsgfn,6,0.021138275281290596,0.0028137437486000384,0.026421529616655195,0.3888888888888889,1.3307355628251012,0.20625769134368352 | |
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| 700 | +spillover,province,6,ar2_cell,10,0.026352487690787973,0.004179934646704107,0.031030397765015587,0.9833333333333334,1.210002375033699,0.3367210329347674 | |
| 701 | +spillover,province,6,momentum,10,0.026761098981954647,0.0030285079320917035,0.03159818258908622,0.9833333333333334,1.0128436534622847,0.07230867103515998 | |
| 702 | +spillover,province,6,tft_lite,6,0.027273304027825088,0.0038826414507995136,0.032679538919601264,0.8888888888888888,1.3065564518448374,0.3437346695355843 | |
| 703 | +spillover,province,6,no_change,10,0.02823302605139345,0.004135533597023368,0.03242353435571525,0.975,1.0,0.0 | |
| 704 | +spillover,province,6,mean_growth,10,0.028531170221694442,0.004743154356608052,0.0332311753039266,0.8583333333333334,1.3090290890909233,0.3594748064336449 | |
| 705 | +spillover,province,6,lightgbm_panel,10,0.02900694308133254,0.0036483906626740407,0.03423654920152435,0.6458333333333333,1.3372912280003255,0.32226248409960045 | |
| 706 | +spillover,province,6,lstm,6,0.0309776982027697,0.006106622249840015,0.03715768171241637,0.6041666666666666,1.6875870296250897,0.6604421087359807 | |
| 707 | +spillover,province,6,tcn,6,0.032956799219092614,0.007985312849905064,0.03877263898127525,0.7013888888888888,1.8799988694243828,0.7847883752357824 | |
| 708 | +spillover,province,6,mlp_panel,6,0.03424894687878281,0.007785210832030254,0.04235778763075862,0.7152777777777778,1.83187470424177,0.7446115861759579 | |
| 709 | +spillover,province,6,seasonal_naive,10,0.03478851120765483,0.00450940895763676,0.040729226129511464,0.95,1.5563340709317175,0.33472131742219174 | |
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| 712 | +spillover,province,6,dsgfn,6,0.03888915459350444,0.005735549672076021,0.049108796410366216,0.3819444444444444,2.0909986539907863,0.7209537086205409 | |
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| 715 | +spillover,province,6,bhpf,10,0.06519418763078252,0.01029515882739732,0.07770313638089497,0.4541666666666667,3.0698529666963106,0.7683067654898805 | |
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| 718 | +spillover,region,1,momentum,10,0.007964156270459658,0.00021857833626742515,0.009875091762714824,0.9,0.8926303993711082,0.013135950010538239 | |
| 719 | +spillover,region,1,lightgbm_panel,10,0.008112598391695851,0.0002496369767223148,0.010116497057222517,0.5507142857142857,0.9096324421249449,0.02098734571852222 | |
| 720 | +spillover,region,1,tft_lite,6,0.008128577847406738,0.00042432467382051215,0.01025496687806311,0.7904761904761904,0.9262011130844819,0.04686446847338737 | |
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| 722 | +spillover,region,1,lstm,6,0.008495661613531623,0.00034055958456363626,0.010641058472424204,0.6964285714285715,0.9667688715526074,0.029821782457709976 | |
| 723 | +spillover,region,1,tcn,6,0.008587387277898423,0.00044688128611329066,0.010761264622775496,0.7071428571428572,0.9768257597634117,0.042370285083254446 | |
| 724 | +spillover,region,1,no_change,10,0.008932051249330341,0.00024880858991062533,0.010984475238667,0.8842857142857143,1.0,0.0 | |
| 725 | +spillover,region,1,mlp_panel,6,0.008958303107940655,0.0005181990320147933,0.011389751448509478,0.6607142857142857,1.0182727543208394,0.04765252343486803 | |
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| 727 | +spillover,region,1,qanss,6,0.009349602659623568,0.0005076331451997554,0.011990658587988865,0.9476190476190477,1.0624585171374379,0.04348319095699135 | |
| 728 | +spillover,region,1,ridge_panel,10,0.009416792601518564,0.0005955654847688397,0.011906621559580433,0.75,1.0495900244875713,0.04870284770052994 | |
| 729 | +spillover,region,1,bhpf,10,0.00941682121504954,0.0005496001921369261,0.01191857224830671,0.7785714285714286,1.0514311351513634,0.04683147157362203 | |
| 730 | +spillover,region,1,raref,10,0.010033795691921433,0.0005766573412258111,0.012562710338566698,0.7264285714285714,1.1207786060093585,0.0486776916659103 | |
| 731 | +spillover,region,1,dsgfn,6,0.010170451208912573,0.0005329191725572866,0.012916212139127909,0.5083333333333333,1.1564984505030165,0.048751843166270716 | |
| 732 | +spillover,region,1,seasonal_naive,10,0.017901428413496217,0.0007885824173141344,0.022435616935995002,0.9385714285714286,2.022222073044195,0.11095621569043639 | |
| 733 | +spillover,region,3,ar2_cell,10,0.02163507742257773,0.0007442514910589279,0.02677184641053539,0.8522727272727273,0.8998456604480559,0.03258359577208214 | |
| 734 | +spillover,region,3,rw_drift,10,0.022020026892777645,0.0006910618664898097,0.027053801716727843,0.8863636363636364,0.9153713344609476,0.02982495685114015 | |
| 735 | +spillover,region,3,momentum,10,0.02204674255688369,0.0007596140105143698,0.02706793678197645,0.8696969696969697,0.9126043238377962,0.013014137059930965 | |
| 736 | +spillover,region,3,tft_lite,6,0.02279514794371185,0.0015072124612775736,0.028393182305236315,0.7335858585858586,0.9638299136146391,0.07705272262052973 | |
| 737 | +spillover,region,3,mean_growth,10,0.02344077827617321,0.0013490947882523437,0.02886965176485638,0.7363636363636363,0.9722175226212839,0.05244481398836102 | |
| 738 | +spillover,region,3,lightgbm_panel,10,0.023851585185919115,0.0010466276777840735,0.02991238275367671,0.471969696969697,0.9912884673478362,0.04343696961098603 | |
| 739 | +spillover,region,3,no_change,10,0.024167237020493552,0.0007894617192730156,0.029565983256177104,0.8401515151515152,1.0,0.0 | |
| 740 | +spillover,region,3,lstm,6,0.024588495282593135,0.001738788879314613,0.030469216334622264,0.5921717171717172,1.0443643063435604,0.09881010748346516 | |
| 741 | +spillover,region,3,tcn,6,0.024619681728649118,0.0021055536893485865,0.030663412612591468,0.6616161616161617,1.04542072298966,0.11306589780211733 | |
| 742 | +spillover,region,3,qanss,6,0.025395043656953244,0.0013897121057963688,0.03290597994182028,0.8598484848484849,1.0715547451768872,0.06657234939741785 | |
| 743 | +spillover,region,3,local_linear_trend,10,0.027055597399712732,0.0006615988647266801,0.033839435929971726,0.9431818181818181,1.1271886454368851,0.03612878496940892 | |
| 744 | +spillover,region,3,mlp_panel,6,0.027117196689804262,0.002281328900006491,0.033911553150059275,0.5315656565656566,1.1477534994970469,0.11492246444688417 | |
| 745 | +spillover,region,3,dsgfn,6,0.028409353927178835,0.002657393211883398,0.0356553342637218,0.42550505050505044,1.2029908908455913,0.13083258908586792 | |
| 746 | +spillover,region,3,ridge_panel,10,0.029150725384436943,0.002538426030083074,0.037115361367323886,0.625,1.2112397769073266,0.10200387341944277 | |
| 747 | +spillover,region,3,bhpf,10,0.029254680875782514,0.0025326459238233833,0.03755590603392544,0.6848484848484848,1.2216976211071782,0.11502945308295398 | |
| 748 | +spillover,region,3,raref,10,0.02941116606638814,0.0029338117124814668,0.03835795141906569,0.6424242424242423,1.2317973399818392,0.13955377139719843 | |
| 749 | +spillover,region,3,seasonal_naive,10,0.03192419810166195,0.0013263953068308602,0.03985709882866899,0.9196969696969697,1.3325933967317278,0.06635655051317535 | |
| 750 | +spillover,region,6,momentum,10,0.04077042457682175,0.0016005352177083912,0.050078503789683426,0.8302083333333334,0.946508600208565,0.020230198453659465 | |
| 751 | +spillover,region,6,ar2_cell,10,0.041925594742884965,0.001955627021026111,0.05116947361910854,0.8114583333333334,0.986361518550132,0.06481760441767435 | |
| 752 | +spillover,region,6,rw_drift,10,0.04282061932875334,0.0018108034427831955,0.052843123465171546,0.8635416666666667,1.0099786284681482,0.07006890887819164 | |
| 753 | +spillover,region,6,no_change,10,0.043279485903180676,0.0019719575976478157,0.05286511992927201,0.8072916666666666,1.0,0.0 | |
| 754 | +spillover,region,6,mean_growth,10,0.04519380114111963,0.0027516681759330915,0.05551235351240656,0.6708333333333333,1.0682518788587092,0.09247006258263035 | |
| 755 | +spillover,region,6,tft_lite,6,0.04713936203312905,0.0022530774520881885,0.05719920723693781,0.6770833333333334,1.149466346696016,0.10479246624939376 | |
| 756 | +spillover,region,6,qanss,6,0.048122004880572535,0.001893916505990905,0.06259030898986105,0.8055555555555555,1.1778454911198264,0.10801611624807085 | |
| 757 | +spillover,region,6,lightgbm_panel,10,0.049486196111687517,0.0029316833220407144,0.061473253456691815,0.415625,1.161615132494726,0.08319473177323572 | |
| 758 | +spillover,region,6,lstm,6,0.04962992893538084,0.004231105940659861,0.061032395443008876,0.6163194444444444,1.2253382620070539,0.18072924494831138 | |
| 759 | +spillover,region,6,tcn,6,0.050793803721396434,0.0050238247291714295,0.06269420529019848,0.6371527777777778,1.2613218722513226,0.21040089969232098 | |
| 760 | +spillover,region,6,seasonal_naive,10,0.05346562982297739,0.002515025762031164,0.06603921784240192,0.878125,1.2640381484370973,0.09588104507315072 | |
| 761 | +spillover,region,6,mlp_panel,6,0.05387425262628521,0.0047437312022856944,0.06745099877944973,0.5243055555555555,1.3307630581511505,0.1966633117309701 | |
| 762 | +spillover,region,6,local_linear_trend,10,0.05522441682790062,0.0018377190905137107,0.06939761218248289,0.9302083333333334,1.2946767475040701,0.05940056486824357 | |
| 763 | +spillover,region,6,dsgfn,6,0.058998267594715555,0.007046015479135314,0.07281600164626988,0.3732638888888889,1.4416076222568162,0.23044001133640407 | |
| 764 | +spillover,region,6,raref,10,0.063735291686951,0.0072164392878849735,0.0779215451913193,0.534375,1.535383388004458,0.25074961392672457 | |
| 765 | +spillover,region,6,ridge_panel,10,0.06561684093275957,0.005973663707756066,0.07983726648346892,0.4895833333333333,1.5497350722563683,0.17143945294400914 | |
| 766 | +spillover,region,6,bhpf,10,0.06892973414871703,0.006295745092734707,0.08626784753296567,0.4177083333333333,1.64291958325964,0.20826934065662045 | |
modified
scripts/50_tables.py
+5 −5
@@ -231,18 +231,18 @@ def t_simulation(): | ||
| 231 | 231 | f = R / "simulation" / "summary.csv" |
| 232 | 232 | if not ok(f): return |
| 233 | 233 | d = pl.read_csv(f, infer_schema_length=None); scen = ["rw", "momentum", "regimes", "spillover", "sparse"]; scen = [s for s in scen if s in d["scenario"].to_list()] |
| 234 | − for lvl in ["municipality", "region"]: | |
| 234 | + for lvl in ["municipality", "region", "province"]: | |
| 235 | 235 | rows = [] |
| 236 | 236 | for m in ORDER_B: |
| 237 | 237 | x = d.filter((pl.col("model") == m) & (pl.col("level") == lvl) & (pl.col("h") == 3)) |
| 238 | 238 | if x.height == 0: continue |
| 239 | 239 | r = [LABELS.get(m, m)] |
| 240 | 240 | for s in scen: |
| 241 | − y = x.filter(pl.col("scenario") == s); r.append(f"{100*y['mae'][0]:.2f} ({100*y['mae_mcse'][0]:.2f})" if y.height else "—") | |
| 242 | − if y.height: macro(f"Sim{lvl}{m}{s}", 100 * y["mae"][0], "{:.2f}") | |
| 241 | + y = x.filter(pl.col("scenario") == s); r.append(f"{y['rel_mae'][0]:.2f} ({y['rel_mae_mcse'][0]:.2f})" if y.height else "—") | |
| 242 | + if y.height: macro(f"Sim{lvl}{m}{s}", 100 * y["mae"][0], "{:.2f}"); macro(f"SimRel{lvl}{m}{s}", y["rel_mae"][0], "{:.2f}"); macro(f"SimCov{lvl}{m}{s}", 100 * y["cov90"][0], "{:.0f}") | |
| 243 | 243 | rows.append(r) |
| 244 | − table(f"tab_sim_{lvl}", ["Model"] + scen, rows, f"Simulation — MAE (×100, Monte Carlo s.e.) of 3-month index-change forecasts at the {lvl} level, by scenario", f"tab:sim_{lvl}", size="\\scriptsize", | |
| 245 | − notes="rw: random-walk latent paths (unforecastable); momentum: AR(1) drifts; regimes: Markov-switching provincial drift; spillover: municipal drift follows the lagged regional drift; sparse: momentum with 35\\% of the sales.") | |
| 244 | + table(f"tab_sim_{lvl}", ["Model"] + scen, rows, f"Simulation — MAE of 3-month index-change forecasts relative to the no-change forecast at the {lvl} level, by scenario (Monte Carlo s.e. over replications)", f"tab:sim_{lvl}", size="\\scriptsize", | |
| 245 | + notes="rw: random walk with a constant drift; momentum: AR(1) drifts at every level; regimes: Markov-switching provincial drift; spillover: municipal drift follows the lagged regional drift; sparse: momentum with 35\\% of the sales. Values below 1 beat the no-change forecast. Classic and tree models: 10 replications; neural models: 6.") | |
| 246 | 246 | |
| 247 | 247 | |
| 248 | 248 | if __name__ == "__main__": |
| 249 | 249 | |