1{2 "T": 275,3 "year0": 2026,4 "tasks": {5 "names": [6 "routine",7 "cognitive-L",8 "cognitive-H",9 "expert"10 ],11 "skill": [12 0,13 0,14 1,15 116 ],17 "nu": [18 0.26196946656953946,19 0.3601233325775139,20 0.18895360042647338,21 0.1889536004264733822 ],23 "gamma": [24 0.0,25 0.0,26 0.0,27 0.028 ],29 "alpha_inf": [30 1.0,31 2.0,32 4.0,33 8.034 ]35 },36 "sigma_B": 0.5,37 "H": [38 0.6,39 0.440 ],41 "sigma_N": 0.7,42 "nu_N": 0.44166180471199407,43 "sigma_T": 0.6,44 "nu_T": 0.05124350348124159,45 "nu_E": 0.06338804704206842,46 "Z0": 1.6217466893370058,47 "g_Z": 0.015,48 "ZE": 2.1786535216302307,49 "eta": 0.35321875,50 "RE": 1.0,51 "T_land": 1.0,52 "TH_land": 1.0,53 "nu_H": 0.4201140509999999,54 "theta_H": 0.16197913285984789,55 "delta": {56 "N": 0.088972,57 "Q": 0.25,58 "E": 0.05,59 "H": 0.02323696529119161460 },61 "phi": {62 "N": 3.0,63 "Q": 1.0,64 "E": 3.0,65 "H": 3.066 },67 "pQ0": 0.06189445783132529,68 "g_pQ": 0.15,69 "pQ_floor_ratio": 0.01,70 "eps0": 0.044000000000000004,71 "g_eps": 0.1,72 "eps_floor_ratio": 0.01,73 "beta": 0.9953864734299515,74 "gamma_u": 2.0,75 "alpha0_mult": [76 14.915327233174914,77 50.0,78 400.0,79 3000.080 ],81 "g_alpha": 0.1,82 "alpha_shock_year": null,83 "alpha_freeze": false,84 "reinstate_task": null,85 "alpha_inf_scale": 1.0,86 "tau_T": 0.0,87 "tau_K": 0.0,88 "tau_Q": 0.0,89 "theta_F": 0.2,90 "markup_Q": 1.0,91 "foreign_share_Q": 0.0,92 "KN0": 1.706658474883573,93 "KQ0": 1.0,94 "KE0": 0.3,95 "KH0": 1.17002,96 "source": {97 "labor_share": "data: FRED (University of Groningen, University of California, Davis) LABSHPUSA156NRUG (2023)",98 "housing_va_share": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md); BEA housing services ~12% of GDP, not retrieved as a series",99 "KN_over_GDP": "data: FRED (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) K1NTOTL1ES000/GDPA (2024)",100 "KH_over_GDP": "data: BEA fixed assets via FRED: total minus nonresidential private net stock / GDP (2024)",101 "KE_over_GDP": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",102 "VQ_over_GDP": "data-derived: info-processing-equipment investment/GDP (FRED Y034RC1Q027SBEA, 2026Q2) capitalized at delta_Q + g_Z + g_pQ",103 "energy_share": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",104 "datacenter_energy_share": "data: Shehabi, A., Newkirk, A., Smith, S.J., et al. (2024), 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, LBNL-2001637, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOI 10.71468/P1WC7Q) text (2023)",105 "land_rent_share": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",106 "resource_share_energy": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",107 "housing_land_share": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",108 "delta_N": "data: FRED (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) M1NTOTL1ES000/K1NTOTL1ES000 (2024)",109 "delta_H": "data: implied residential depreciation = (CFC_total - CFC_nonres)/K_res (BEA via FRED, 2024)",110 "delta_E": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",111 "delta_Q": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",112 "r_star": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",113 "g_Z": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",114 "gamma_u": "assumed: literature value (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",115 "share_L_workers": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",116 "skill_premium": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",117 "task_wage_shares_L": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",118 "task_wage_shares_H": "assumed: assumed (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",119 "sigma_B": "assumed: literature value (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",120 "sigma_N": "assumed: literature value (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",121 "sigma_T": "assumed: literature value (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",122 "phi_N": "assumed: literature value (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",123 "phi_Q": "assumed: literature value (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",124 "phi_E": "assumed: literature value (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",125 "phi_H": "assumed: literature value (see docs/assumptions_register.md)",126 "g_pQ": "assumed: override (scenario)",127 "g_eps": "assumed: override (scenario)",128 "g_alpha": "assumed: override (scenario)",129 "pQ_floor_ratio": "assumed: scenario",130 "eps_floor_ratio": "assumed: scenario",131 "eta": "calibrated: implied by K_E/GDP and energy share",132 "KN0": "calibrated: residual so that factor payments add up to GDP (K_N/GDP target not imposed)",133 "nu_H": "calibrated: implied by K_H/GDP, delta_H, r* and the housing value-added share",134 "theta_H": "calibrated: housing VA share and goods consumption at the base point",135 "alpha_1_2026": "calibrated: value of compute capital, compute Euler and task-1 tie A = w_L/alpha_1",136 "compute_in_task1_implied": "0.2184",137 "Y_implied": "0.8800 (final goods gross output; GDP = 1 by normalization)"138 }139}