data/raw — provenance of every raw file (fetched 2026-10-27)
All files in this directory were downloaded by scripts/01_download_data.py
(run with python3 -I) on 2026-10-27. MANIFEST.json records, for every
attempted download, the URL, UTC timestamp, HTTP status, byte count and SHA-256.
Re-download everything with:
bash
python3 -I scripts/01_download_data.pyDownloaded files are untrusted inputs: processing scripts (02_build_calibration_targets.py)
are run with python3 -I and read them with pandas/openpyxl/xlrd only.
1. FRED CSVs — fred/<SERIES>.csv (24 series attempted, 23 obtained; 36 downloads in total, 35 ok)
Endpoint: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=<SERIES>&cosd=1900-01-01 (no API key).
Series page: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/<SERIES>. FRED terms of use: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/ —
St. Louis Fed-produced data are public; third-party series (ICE BofA, S&P) carry their owners' restrictions.
| File | Series | Source agency | Frequency / units | Coverage obtained | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRS85006173.csv | Nonfarm business labor share, index 2017=100 | BLS | quarterly | 1947Q1–2026Q2 | 6.0 KB |
| LABSHPUSA156NRUG.csv | Labour-compensation share of GDP (PWT) | Penn World Table via FRED | annual, ratio | 1950–2023 | 2.2 KB |
| A4002E1A156NBEA.csv | Compensation of employees, share of GDI | BEA | annual, % | 1929–2025 | 1.6 KB |
| W270RE1A156NBEA.csv | Wage & salary disbursements, share of GDI | BEA | annual, % | 1948–2025 | 1.3 KB |
| GDPC1.csv | Real GDP (chained 2017 $) | BEA | quarterly, SAAR | 1947Q1–2026Q2 | 6.5 KB |
| PCECC96.csv | Real PCE | BEA | quarterly | 1947Q1–2026Q2 | 6.5 KB |
| GPDIC1.csv | Real gross private domestic investment | BEA | quarterly | 1947Q1–2026Q2 | 6.2 KB |
| A191RL1Q225SBEA.csv | Real GDP growth, % SAAR | BEA | quarterly | 1947Q2–2026Q2 | 4.8 KB |
| DFII10.csv | 10-year TIPS yield | Fed H.15 | daily, % | 2003-01-02–2026-10-26 | 99 KB |
| DGS10.csv | 10-year Treasury yield | Fed H.15 | daily, % | 1962–2026-10-26 | 269 KB |
| DFF.csv | Effective federal funds rate | Fed H.15 | daily, % | 1954–2026-10-26 | 424 KB |
| TB3MS.csv | 3-month T-bill (secondary market) | Fed H.15 | monthly, % | 1934-01–2026-09 | 18 KB |
| CPIAUCSL.csv | CPI-U all items, SA | BLS | monthly, 1982-84=100 | 1947-01–2026-09 | 18 KB |
| K1TTOTL1ES000.csv | Current-cost net stock of private fixed assets | BEA Fixed Assets | annual, $ mn | 1925–2024 | 1.9 KB |
| M1TTOTL1ES000.csv | Current-cost depreciation of private fixed assets | BEA Fixed Assets | annual, $ mn | 1925–2024 | 1.8 KB |
| SP500.csv | S&P 500 index level | S&P Dow Jones Indices | daily | 2016-10-28–2026-10-26 only (10-year licence window) | 49 KB |
| BAMLC0A0CM.csv | ICE BofA US Corporate OAS | ICE Data Indices | daily, % | 2023-10-30–2026-10-26 only | 13 KB |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2.csv | ICE BofA US High Yield OAS | ICE Data Indices | daily, % | 2023-10-30–2026-10-26 only | 13 KB |
| DRTSCILM.csv | SLOOS net % tightening C&I standards, large/middle firms | Fed | quarterly | 1990Q2–2026Q3 | 2.4 KB |
| TOTBKCR.csv | Bank credit, all commercial banks (H.8) | Fed | weekly, $ bn | 1973–2026-10-14 | 59 KB |
| TLAACBW027SBOG.csv | Total assets, all commercial banks (H.8) | Fed | weekly, $ bn | 1973–2026-10-14 | 60 KB |
| RALACBW027SBOG.csv | Residual (assets less liabilities), all commercial banks (H.8) | Fed | weekly, $ bn | 1973–2026-10-14 | 57 KB |
| BOGZ1FL073164003Q.csv | NYSE Composite index level (Z.1) | Fed | quarterly, end of period | 1945Q4–2026Q2 | 5.6 KB |
Restrictions noted on the FRED pages (read 2026-10-27):
- ICE BofA series: "Copyrighted: Pre-Approval Required" and "Starting in April 2026, this series will only include 3 years of observations." The 2008 and 2020 spread peaks are therefore not in these files.
- SP500: FRED distributes only the most recent 10 years.
2. Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts — dfa/
- URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/download/zips/dfa.zip (895,897 bytes; archive dated 2026-09-15; landing page https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/table/).
- Extracted (flat, name-filtered): 26 CSVs (
dfa-networth-shares.csv,dfa-networth-levels.csv, … by generation/education/income/race/age, plus-detailvariants) and 3.txtdictionaries. - Coverage: 1989Q3–2026Q2, quarterly; categories TopPt1, RemainingTop1, Next9, Next40, Bottom50.
- Terms: Federal Reserve Board public data (no licence restriction; cite "Federal Reserve Board, Distributional Financial Accounts").
3. Fernald utilization-adjusted TFP — fernald/quarterly_tfp.xlsx
- URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/quarterly_tfp.xlsx (252,789 bytes; workbook stamped "Produced on October 01, 2026").
- Landing page: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/data-and-indicators/total-factor-productivity-tfp/
- Sheets used:
annual(1947–2025: dY, dhours, dk, dLQ, alpha, dtfp, dutil, dtfp_util) andquarterly(1947Q1–2026Q2). Units: percent change (annual sheet = 100×Δlog; quarterly = 400×Δlog). - Citation required by the author: Fernald, J. G. (2014), "A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity", FRBSF Working Paper 2012-19.
4. Shiller long-run stock market data — shiller/ie_data.xls
- URL (current file, linked from https://shillerdata.com/):
https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/e5e77e0b-59d1-44d9-ab25-4763ac982e53/downloads/1449043e-a1ed-4e2e-8e9c-7b9a2a064493/ie_data.xls?ver=1791297298731(1,675,264 bytes). - Coverage: monthly 1871-01 to 2026-10 (Oct 2026 price = Oct 2 close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated, per the file's own note). Columns used: S&P Composite price P, dividend D, CPI, GS10.
- The legacy Yale copy (
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls) still downloads but ends 2023-09; not used. - Terms: data posted by Robert J. Shiller for public use; cite Irrational Exuberance data.
5. SEC filings and XBRL — sec_xbrl/
capex_{MSFT,GOOGL,AMZN,META}.json: SEC XBRL "company concept" API,us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, e.g.https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyconcept/CIK0000789019/us-gaap/PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment.json(requires a User-Agent header; public domain).AMZN-Q4-2025-Earnings-Release.pdf: https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_earnings/2025/q4/earnings-result/AMZN-Q4-2025-Earnings-Release.pdf (cash-flow statement: purchases of property and equipment $131,819 mn, twelve months 2025).meta-12312025xexhibit991.htm: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026003832/meta-12312025xexhibit991.htm (Meta Q4/FY2025 release; capex incl. finance-lease principal $72.22 bn).
6. EIA electricity prices — eia/epm_table_5_6_a.html
- URL: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a (Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, average retail price by end-use sector, cents/kWh; U.S. total industrial = 9.64 ¢/kWh in August 2026 vs 8.98 in August 2025, values for 2026 preliminary). Public domain (U.S. government).
7. Open working papers used for ledger parameters — papers/
floden_linde_1998_iies654.pdf: http://su.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:328071/FULLTEXT01 — Flodén & Lindé, IIES Seminar Paper 654 (1998), Table 4 (US: ρ = 0.9136, σ²_ε = 0.0426, σ²_ξ = 0.0421). Published version: Review of Economic Dynamics 4(2), 2001, doi:10.1006/redy.2000.0121.gorton_metrick_w15223.pdf: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w15223/w15223.pdf — Gorton & Metrick, NBER WP 15223 (2009); JFE 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.03.016 ("This index rises from zero in early 2007 to nearly 50 percent at the peak of the crisis in late 2008").
Not downloaded (and why)
| Item | URL tried | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| WILL5000INDFC (Wilshire 5000) | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WILL5000INDFC | HTTP 404 on 2026-10-27 — Wilshire indices are no longer distributed by FRED. SP500 (10-year) and Shiller data used instead. |
| ICE BofA OAS full history (2008/2020 peaks) | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2 | FRED now serves a 3-year rolling window only; full history requires an ICE Data Indices licence. Chart-read values from the Fed's November 2020 Financial Stability Report (accessible version) are recorded in the ledger as weakly sourced. |
| WID.world US wealth shares | https://wid.world/country/usa/ | Page renders charts client-side; no CSV endpoint located. Fed DFA used for top-share targets. |
| SCF 2022 microdata/summary tables | https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/october-2023-changes-in-us-family-finances-from-2019-to-2022.htm | HTML bulletin read on 2026-10-27 (median net worth $192,900; mean $1,063,700 in 2022 dollars); no machine-readable file downloaded; the bulletin publishes no Gini. |
| Census BTOS AI-use series | https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/data | JavaScript-driven data page; values taken from the Census story https://census.gov/library/stories/2026/05/ai-use-businesses.html (19.8% of businesses using AI as of 2026-05-03). |
| FDIC QBP 2Q2026 equity-capital ratio | https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profile/quarterly-banking-profile-2q-2026 | Ratio not on the HTML summary (only ROA 1.37%, net income $90.1 bn); the book equity/assets ratio is computed from FRED H.8 (RALACBW027SBOG / TLAACBW027SBOG) instead. |
| Cooley & Prescott (1995) chapter text | https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691043234/frontiers-of-business-cycle-research | Publisher page returned HTTP 403 to scripted access; chapter not online. Their ρ/σ values are therefore flagged as unverified in the ledger; Fernald-based estimates are used. |
| Storesletten–Telmer–Yaron (2004 JME) full text | https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/BCH/OG/STY_risksharing_JME_04.pdf | HTTP 404; only the NBER WP 7995 abstract (persistence 0.98–1.0) was readable. |
| OpenAI pricing page | https://openai.com/api/pricing/ | HTTP 403 to the fetcher; the developer-docs mirror https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing was read instead (2026-10-27). |