1% paper/appendices/data.tex — provenance of every raw source (data/raw/README.md, MANIFEST.json)2\section{Data appendix}\label{app:data}3\begingroup\sloppy45All raw files were downloaded on 2026-10-27 by \texttt{scripts/01\_download\_data.py}, run under6\texttt{python3 -I} so that no code is loaded from the download directories, and processed by7\texttt{scripts/02\_build\_calibration\_targets.py}, which reads them only through pandas, openpyxl and xlrd.8\texttt{data/raw/MANIFEST.json} logs, for each of the 36 attempted downloads (35 successful, one HTTP 404), the9URL, UTC timestamp, HTTP status, content type, byte count, SHA-256 digest, number of rows and first and last10observation, together with a \texttt{not\_downloaded} block giving the reason for every item that was sought but11not obtained. Re-running the download script regenerates the manifest; a changed digest flags a revised vintage.1213\paragraph{FRED.} Twenty-four series were requested from14\url{https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=<SERIES>&cosd=1900-01-01} (no key required) and 23 were15obtained: the BLS labour-share index (\texttt{PRS85006173}, 1947:Q1--2026:Q2), the PWT labour-compensation share16(\texttt{LABSHPUSA156NRUG}, 1950--2023), BEA income shares (\texttt{A4002E1A156NBEA}, \texttt{W270RE1A156NBEA}),17real GDP, consumption and investment (\texttt{GDPC1}, \texttt{PCECC96}, \texttt{GPDIC1}, \texttt{A191RL1Q225SBEA}),18interest rates and prices (\texttt{DFII10}, \texttt{DGS10}, \texttt{DFF}, \texttt{TB3MS}, \texttt{CPIAUCSL}), BEA19fixed-asset stocks and depreciation (\texttt{K1TTOTL1ES000}, \texttt{M1TTOTL1ES000}, 1925--2024), the S\&P 50020level (\texttt{SP500}, ten-year licence window only, 2016-10-28 to 2026-10-26), ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads21(\texttt{BAMLC0A0CM}, \texttt{BAMLH0A0HYM2}), the SLOOS tightening series (\texttt{DRTSCILM}), the H.8 bank credit,22assets and residual series (\texttt{TOTBKCR}, \texttt{TLAACBW027SBOG}, \texttt{RALACBW027SBOG}) and the Z.1 NYSE23composite level (\texttt{BOGZ1FL073164003Q}). The Wilshire 5000 (\texttt{WILL5000INDFC}) returned HTTP 404 and is no24longer distributed by FRED. Two restrictions matter for the paper: since April 2026 FRED serves only three years of25the ICE BofA indices (``Copyrighted: Pre-Approval Required''), so the 2008 and 2020 spread peaks are not in our files26and appear in the ledger only as readings of the chart descriptions in the Federal Reserve's November 202027\emph{Financial Stability Report}; and the S\&P 500 level is limited to ten years, which is why long-run equity28moments come from the Shiller file.2930\paragraph{Distributional Financial Accounts.} \url{https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/download/zips/dfa.zip}31(895,897 bytes, archive dated 2026-09-15); 26 CSV files and three data dictionaries were extracted, covering321989:Q3--2026:Q2 for the groups TopPt1, RemainingTop1, Next9, Next40 and Bottom50. Only33\texttt{dfa-networth-shares.csv} is used.3435\paragraph{Fernald TFP.} \url{https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/quarterly_tfp.xlsx} (252,789 bytes, vintage36``Produced on October 01, 2026''), sheets \texttt{annual} (1947--2025) and \texttt{quarterly} (1947:Q1--2026:Q2);37columns \texttt{alpha}, \texttt{dtfp} and \texttt{dtfp\_util}, in 100$\times$ (annual) or 400$\times$ (quarterly)38log changes. The author asks that FRBSF Working Paper 2012-19 be cited.3940\paragraph{Shiller data.} The current \texttt{ie\_data.xls} linked from \url{https://shillerdata.com/} (1,675,26441bytes; monthly 1871-01 to 2026-10, with the October 2026 price being the 2 October close and the last two CPI42values estimated by the file's own note). Columns used: price, dividend, CPI and the ten-year yield; annual real43total returns compound monthly price plus one twelfth of the dividend. The legacy Yale copy ends in 2023-09 and was44not used.4546\paragraph{SEC filings.} Capital expenditure is the XBRL concept \texttt{PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment} (namespace \texttt{us-gaap}) from47the SEC XBRL company-concept API (\url{https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyconcept/CIK<cik>/us-gaap/PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment.json},48User-Agent header required) for Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, supplemented by Amazon's Q4 2025 earnings49release (purchases of property and equipment \$131,819 million, twelve months 2025) and Meta's FY2025 exhibit 99.150(\$72.22 billion including finance-lease principal). Microsoft's calendar-2025 figure is derived as the fiscal-202551total minus the three fiscal quarters reported in 10-Qs, plus the two subsequent quarters52($16.745+17.079+19.394+29.876=83.094$ billion); it is the only derived component of the \$376.1 billion total.5354\paragraph{EIA and open working papers.} Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A55(\url{https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a}) is saved as HTML; 2026 values56are preliminary. The Flod\'en--Lind\'e IIES Seminar Paper 654 (1998) and Gorton--Metrick NBER WP 15223 (2009) PDFs57are stored in \texttt{data/raw/papers/} and were read for Table~4 and for the haircut-index sentence respectively.5859\paragraph{Not obtained.} WID.world US wealth shares (client-side charts, no CSV endpoint), SCF 2022 microdata (the60bulletin was read for median and mean net worth but publishes no Gini), the Census BTOS data page (JavaScript only;61values taken from the Census story of 26 May 2026), the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile equity ratio (not on the62summary page; the H.8 book ratio is used instead), the Cooley--Prescott (1995) chapter text (HTTP 403), the63Storesletten--Telmer--Yaron full text (HTTP 404; abstract only) and the OpenAI pricing page (HTTP 403; the64developer-docs mirror was read). Each omission is recorded in the manifest and marked \textsc{not obtained} in the65ledger rather than filled from memory.66\endgroup67