1# data/raw — provenance of every raw file (fetched 2026-10-27)23All files in this directory were downloaded by `scripts/01_download_data.py`4(run with `python3 -I`) on **2026-10-27**. `MANIFEST.json` records, for every5attempted download, the URL, UTC timestamp, HTTP status, byte count and SHA-256.6Re-download everything with:78```bash9python3 -I scripts/01_download_data.py10```1112Downloaded files are untrusted inputs: processing scripts (`02_build_calibration_targets.py`)13are run with `python3 -I` and read them with pandas/openpyxl/xlrd only.1415## 1. FRED CSVs — `fred/<SERIES>.csv` (24 series attempted, 23 obtained; 36 downloads in total, 35 ok)1617Endpoint: `https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=<SERIES>&cosd=1900-01-01` (no API key).18Series page: `https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/<SERIES>`. FRED terms of use: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/ —19St. Louis Fed-produced data are public; third-party series (ICE BofA, S&P) carry their owners' restrictions.2021| File | Series | Source agency | Frequency / units | Coverage obtained | Size |22|---|---|---|---|---|---|23| PRS85006173.csv | Nonfarm business labor share, index 2017=100 | BLS | quarterly | 1947Q1–2026Q2 | 6.0 KB |24| LABSHPUSA156NRUG.csv | Labour-compensation share of GDP (PWT) | Penn World Table via FRED | annual, ratio | 1950–2023 | 2.2 KB |25| A4002E1A156NBEA.csv | Compensation of employees, share of GDI | BEA | annual, % | 1929–2025 | 1.6 KB |26| W270RE1A156NBEA.csv | Wage & salary disbursements, share of GDI | BEA | annual, % | 1948–2025 | 1.3 KB |27| GDPC1.csv | Real GDP (chained 2017 $) | BEA | quarterly, SAAR | 1947Q1–2026Q2 | 6.5 KB |28| PCECC96.csv | Real PCE | BEA | quarterly | 1947Q1–2026Q2 | 6.5 KB |29| GPDIC1.csv | Real gross private domestic investment | BEA | quarterly | 1947Q1–2026Q2 | 6.2 KB |30| A191RL1Q225SBEA.csv | Real GDP growth, % SAAR | BEA | quarterly | 1947Q2–2026Q2 | 4.8 KB |31| DFII10.csv | 10-year TIPS yield | Fed H.15 | daily, % | 2003-01-02–2026-10-26 | 99 KB |32| DGS10.csv | 10-year Treasury yield | Fed H.15 | daily, % | 1962–2026-10-26 | 269 KB |33| DFF.csv | Effective federal funds rate | Fed H.15 | daily, % | 1954–2026-10-26 | 424 KB |34| TB3MS.csv | 3-month T-bill (secondary market) | Fed H.15 | monthly, % | 1934-01–2026-09 | 18 KB |35| CPIAUCSL.csv | CPI-U all items, SA | BLS | monthly, 1982-84=100 | 1947-01–2026-09 | 18 KB |36| K1TTOTL1ES000.csv | Current-cost net stock of private fixed assets | BEA Fixed Assets | annual, $ mn | 1925–2024 | 1.9 KB |37| M1TTOTL1ES000.csv | Current-cost depreciation of private fixed assets | BEA Fixed Assets | annual, $ mn | 1925–2024 | 1.8 KB |38| SP500.csv | S&P 500 index level | S&P Dow Jones Indices | daily | **2016-10-28–2026-10-26 only** (10-year licence window) | 49 KB |39| BAMLC0A0CM.csv | ICE BofA US Corporate OAS | ICE Data Indices | daily, % | **2023-10-30–2026-10-26 only** | 13 KB |40| BAMLH0A0HYM2.csv | ICE BofA US High Yield OAS | ICE Data Indices | daily, % | **2023-10-30–2026-10-26 only** | 13 KB |41| DRTSCILM.csv | SLOOS net % tightening C&I standards, large/middle firms | Fed | quarterly | 1990Q2–2026Q3 | 2.4 KB |42| TOTBKCR.csv | Bank credit, all commercial banks (H.8) | Fed | weekly, $ bn | 1973–2026-10-14 | 59 KB |43| TLAACBW027SBOG.csv | Total assets, all commercial banks (H.8) | Fed | weekly, $ bn | 1973–2026-10-14 | 60 KB |44| RALACBW027SBOG.csv | Residual (assets less liabilities), all commercial banks (H.8) | Fed | weekly, $ bn | 1973–2026-10-14 | 57 KB |45| BOGZ1FL073164003Q.csv | NYSE Composite index level (Z.1) | Fed | quarterly, end of period | 1945Q4–2026Q2 | 5.6 KB |4647Restrictions noted on the FRED pages (read 2026-10-27):48* ICE BofA series: "Copyrighted: Pre-Approval Required" and "Starting in April 2026, this series will only include 3 years of observations." The 2008 and 2020 spread peaks are therefore **not** in these files.49* SP500: FRED distributes only the most recent 10 years.5051## 2. Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts — `dfa/`5253* URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/download/zips/dfa.zip (895,897 bytes; archive dated 2026-09-15; landing page https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/table/).54* Extracted (flat, name-filtered): 26 CSVs (`dfa-networth-shares.csv`, `dfa-networth-levels.csv`, … by generation/education/income/race/age, plus `-detail` variants) and 3 `.txt` dictionaries.55* Coverage: 1989Q3–2026Q2, quarterly; categories TopPt1, RemainingTop1, Next9, Next40, Bottom50.56* Terms: Federal Reserve Board public data (no licence restriction; cite "Federal Reserve Board, Distributional Financial Accounts").5758## 3. Fernald utilization-adjusted TFP — `fernald/quarterly_tfp.xlsx`5960* URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/quarterly_tfp.xlsx (252,789 bytes; workbook stamped "Produced on October 01, 2026").61* Landing page: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/data-and-indicators/total-factor-productivity-tfp/62* Sheets used: `annual` (1947–2025: dY, dhours, dk, dLQ, alpha, dtfp, dutil, dtfp_util) and `quarterly` (1947Q1–2026Q2). Units: percent change (annual sheet = 100×Δlog; quarterly = 400×Δlog).63* Citation required by the author: Fernald, J. G. (2014), "A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity", FRBSF Working Paper 2012-19.6465## 4. Shiller long-run stock market data — `shiller/ie_data.xls`6667* URL (current file, linked from https://shillerdata.com/): `https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/e5e77e0b-59d1-44d9-ab25-4763ac982e53/downloads/1449043e-a1ed-4e2e-8e9c-7b9a2a064493/ie_data.xls?ver=1791297298731` (1,675,264 bytes).68* Coverage: monthly 1871-01 to 2026-10 (Oct 2026 price = Oct 2 close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated, per the file's own note). Columns used: S&P Composite price P, dividend D, CPI, GS10.69* The legacy Yale copy (`http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls`) still downloads but ends 2023-09; not used.70* Terms: data posted by Robert J. Shiller for public use; cite *Irrational Exuberance* data.7172## 5. SEC filings and XBRL — `sec_xbrl/`7374* `capex_{MSFT,GOOGL,AMZN,META}.json`: SEC XBRL "company concept" API, `us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment`, e.g. `https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyconcept/CIK0000789019/us-gaap/PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment.json` (requires a User-Agent header; public domain).75* `AMZN-Q4-2025-Earnings-Release.pdf`: https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_earnings/2025/q4/earnings-result/AMZN-Q4-2025-Earnings-Release.pdf (cash-flow statement: purchases of property and equipment $131,819 mn, twelve months 2025).76* `meta-12312025xexhibit991.htm`: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026003832/meta-12312025xexhibit991.htm (Meta Q4/FY2025 release; capex incl. finance-lease principal $72.22 bn).7778## 6. EIA electricity prices — `eia/epm_table_5_6_a.html`7980* URL: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a (Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, average retail price by end-use sector, cents/kWh; U.S. total industrial = 9.64 ¢/kWh in August 2026 vs 8.98 in August 2025, values for 2026 preliminary). Public domain (U.S. government).8182## 7. Open working papers used for ledger parameters — `papers/`8384* `floden_linde_1998_iies654.pdf`: http://su.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:328071/FULLTEXT01 — Flodén & Lindé, IIES Seminar Paper 654 (1998), Table 4 (US: ρ = 0.9136, σ²_ε = 0.0426, σ²_ξ = 0.0421). Published version: *Review of Economic Dynamics* 4(2), 2001, doi:10.1006/redy.2000.0121.85* `gorton_metrick_w15223.pdf`: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w15223/w15223.pdf — Gorton & Metrick, NBER WP 15223 (2009); JFE 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.03.016 ("This index rises from zero in early 2007 to nearly 50 percent at the peak of the crisis in late 2008").8687## Not downloaded (and why)8889| Item | URL tried | Reason |90|---|---|---|91| WILL5000INDFC (Wilshire 5000) | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WILL5000INDFC | HTTP 404 on 2026-10-27 — Wilshire indices are no longer distributed by FRED. SP500 (10-year) and Shiller data used instead. |92| ICE BofA OAS full history (2008/2020 peaks) | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2 | FRED now serves a 3-year rolling window only; full history requires an ICE Data Indices licence. Chart-read values from the Fed's November 2020 Financial Stability Report (accessible version) are recorded in the ledger as weakly sourced. |93| WID.world US wealth shares | https://wid.world/country/usa/ | Page renders charts client-side; no CSV endpoint located. Fed DFA used for top-share targets. |94| SCF 2022 microdata/summary tables | https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/october-2023-changes-in-us-family-finances-from-2019-to-2022.htm | HTML bulletin read on 2026-10-27 (median net worth $192,900; mean $1,063,700 in 2022 dollars); no machine-readable file downloaded; the bulletin publishes no Gini. |95| Census BTOS AI-use series | https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/data | JavaScript-driven data page; values taken from the Census story https://census.gov/library/stories/2026/05/ai-use-businesses.html (19.8% of businesses using AI as of 2026-05-03). |96| FDIC QBP 2Q2026 equity-capital ratio | https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profile/quarterly-banking-profile-2q-2026 | Ratio not on the HTML summary (only ROA 1.37%, net income $90.1 bn); the book equity/assets ratio is computed from FRED H.8 (RALACBW027SBOG / TLAACBW027SBOG) instead. |97| Cooley & Prescott (1995) chapter text | https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691043234/frontiers-of-business-cycle-research | Publisher page returned HTTP 403 to scripted access; chapter not online. Their ρ/σ values are therefore flagged as unverified in the ledger; Fernald-based estimates are used. |98| Storesletten–Telmer–Yaron (2004 JME) full text | https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/BCH/OG/STY_risksharing_JME_04.pdf | HTTP 404; only the NBER WP 7995 abstract (persistence 0.98–1.0) was readable. |99| OpenAI pricing page | https://openai.com/api/pricing/ | HTTP 403 to the fetcher; the developer-docs mirror https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing was read instead (2026-10-27). |100