1step,rule,n_before,n_after,n_removed,rationale21,keep quarters >= 1985Q1 (last-origin vintage 2025-12-31),314,163,151,pre-specified post-Great-Moderation estimation window32,drop first quarter of window (no lag available for AR(1)),163,162,1,AR(1) regression requires y_{t-1}43,"drop regression rows with t in 2020Q2,2020Q3,2020Q4",162,159,3,COVID outliers (-28/+35 pp) as dependent or lagged value would dominate OLS5