1{2 "task_id": "F1-conf-03",3 "n_analysed": 1800,4 "n_firms": 300,5 "predictors_used": [6 "leverage",7 "cash_ratio",8 "log_sales"9 ],10 "variables_excluded": [11 {12 "variable": "rating_2025",13 "reason": "known only in 2025; built from realised default history through 2022 and sample-average leverage, so it leaks future outcomes (violates end-of-year-t availability)"14 },15 {16 "variable": "default_next",17 "reason": "outcome variable (known end of t+1); used as dependent variable, not predictor"18 },19 {20 "variable": "firm_id",21 "reason": "identifier; used only for clustering"22 },23 {24 "variable": "year",25 "reason": "origin-year index; not in specified model"26 }27 ],28 "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,29 "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,30 "r2": 0.03490564212216729,31 "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,32 "feasibility": "complete",33 "feasibility_reason": null,34 "data_issues": [35 {36 "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (same firm_id-year, all fields identical)",37 "handling": "removed, keeping one copy per firm-year"38 },39 {40 "issue": "300 firm-years with missing default_next (origin years [2022]; outcome year 2023 beyond data cut)",41 "handling": "excluded from estimation; not imputed"42 },43 {44 "issue": "rating_2025 is a final-vintage (2025) field derived from realised defaults through 2022 and average sample leverage",45 "handling": "excluded from analytic dataset and model (information rule)"46 },47 {48 "issue": "default is not absorbing: 56 firms have default_next=1 in more than one year",49 "handling": "kept as given (default treated as a repeatable annual event); noted as limitation"50 }51 ],52 "n_input_rows": {53 "firm_panel.csv": 214054 },55 "random_seed": null,56 "_extra": {57 "coef": {58 "const": 0.08997926409935522,59 "leverage": 0.2637836102938267,60 "cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,61 "log_sales": -0.00734218180758136362 },63 "se_cluster": {64 "const": 0.04351602070943679,65 "leverage": 0.0407569280434615,66 "cash_ratio": 0.0588860837664576,67 "log_sales": 0.00762610651453190568 },69 "ci95_leverage": [70 0.18390149920815163,71 0.3436657213795017472 ],73 "p_leverage": 9.663918872288981e-11,74 "cov_type": "cluster by firm_id (statsmodels default small-sample correction)"75 }76}