- 2026-10-30 P0 contract written; P1 audit: data clean, no exclusions.
- 2026-10-30 P2 baseline: iid OLS reproduces memo (beta 0.1017, se 0.0448, p 0.0238).
- 2026-10-30 P3 decision: bandwidth by Andrews (1991) AR(1) plug-in on score (x-xbar)u -> 9 lags (NW rule of thumb would be 5); sensitivity grid 0..36 reported. Normal reference distribution.
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed (gate run 1 receipt recorded); P5 report+claims written, final gate.
- 2026-10-30 final gate PASSED (20261030T040423.487076Z); task complete.