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1{2  "task_id": "F3-conf-04",3  "model_name": "sar_aic",4  "model_description": "Iterated AR(p) with four quarterly seasonal intercepts for annualised quarterly inflation, p in {0..4} chosen by AIC at each origin on a common sample (first 4 obs dropped), OLS on an expanding window from 1995Q2 to the origin, multi-step forecasts by iteration.",5  "n_origins": 40,6  "first_origin": "2015-10-01",7  "last_origin": "2025-07-01",8  "rmse_snaive_h1": 2.849125860156572,9  "mae_snaive_h1": 2.1374736750000003,10  "rmse_snaive_h2": 2.846674080377472,11  "mae_snaive_h2": 2.1259446750000004,12  "rmse_snaive_h4": 2.8823159392575315,13  "mae_snaive_h4": 2.181266125,14  "rmse_model_h1": 2.1918133412897713,15  "mae_model_h1": 1.5187711988356731,16  "rmse_model_h2": 2.46022256417967,17  "mae_model_h2": 1.550333358372702,18  "rmse_model_h4": 2.3396848872653107,19  "mae_model_h4": 1.5936096377164786,20  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.23070673291725996,21  "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.13575544838858333,22  "rel_improvement_rmse_h4": 0.18826216952885444,23  "loss_diff_mean_h4": 2.8336198020003365,24  "loss_diff_se_h4": 2.0822850037684537,25  "hac_lags_h4": 3,26  "hac_kernel_h4": "bartlett",27  "dm_stat_h4": 1.360822268264018,28  "dm_pvalue_h4": 0.17356986291430632,29  "feasibility": "complete",30  "feasibility_reason": null,31  "data_issues": [32    {33      "issue": "infl_annualised is empty for 1995Q1 (no previous quarter)",34      "handling": "row excluded from all estimation samples (exclusion ledger step 1)"35    }36  ],37  "n_input_rows": {38    "cpi_quarterly.csv": 127,39    "cpi_monthly.csv": 38140  },41  "n_analysed": 118,42  "random_seed": null,43  "supp_dm_se_sensitivity_h4": {44    "bartlett_L3": 2.0822850037684537,45    "bartlett_L4": 1.84792653245693,46    "bartlett_L6": 1.3749867136255691,47    "rectangular_L3": 1.695990340031105648  },49  "supp_hln_pvalue_h4": 0.22178745465698943,50  "supp_selected_p_counts": {51    "1": 15,52    "2": 2553  },54  "supp_selected_p_last_origin": 155}
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