1{2 "task_id": "F1-conf-03",3 "n_analysed": 1800,4 "n_firms": 300,5 "predictors_used": [6 "leverage",7 "cash_ratio",8 "log_sales"9 ],10 "variables_excluded": [11 {12 "variable": "rating_2025",13 "reason": "known only in 2025 and constructed from the firm's realised default history through 2022 (contains the outcome) and average leverage over the sample; violates the end-of-year-t availability rule (look-ahead/target leakage)"14 },15 {16 "variable": "default_next",17 "reason": "outcome variable, not a predictor (known only at end of t+1)"18 },19 {20 "variable": "firm_id",21 "reason": "identifier; used only for clustering, not as a regressor"22 },23 {24 "variable": "year",25 "reason": "origin-year identifier; not part of the specified model"26 }27 ],28 "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,29 "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,30 "r2": 0.03490564212216729,31 "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,32 "feasibility": "complete",33 "feasibility_reason": null,34 "data_issues": [35 {36 "issue": "40 exact duplicate firm-year rows (40 duplicated firm_id-year keys, all with identical values)",37 "handling": "dropped duplicates keeping one copy; panel becomes balanced 300 firms x 7 years"38 },39 {40 "issue": "default_next missing for 307 raw rows, all in origin year(s) [2022] (outcome year not observed at data cut)",41 "handling": "rows excluded from estimation (ledger step 3); no imputation"42 },43 {44 "issue": "rating_2025 is a final-vintage field built from realised defaults (outcome leakage)",45 "handling": "column excluded from analytic dataset"46 },47 {48 "issue": "leverage has a mass point at its minimum 0.02 (54 firm-years in estimation sample), suggesting floor/censoring in the extract",49 "handling": "kept as recorded; noted as limitation"50 }51 ],52 "n_input_rows": {53 "firm_panel.csv": 214054 },55 "random_seed": null,56 "baseline_default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,57 "intercept": 0.08997926409935522,58 "beta_cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,59 "beta_log_sales": -0.007342181807581363,60 "se_leverage_classical": 0.035820571091069786,61 "ci95_leverage_cluster": [62 0.18390149920815163,63 0.3436657213795017464 ],65 "p_leverage_cluster": 9.663918872288981e-11,66 "n_clusters": 30067}