1{2 "task_id": "F6-conf-03",3 "sample_start": "1960-01-01",4 "sample_end": "2019-10-01",5 "n_sub1": 96,6 "n_sub2": 144,7 "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,8 "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,9 "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,10 "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,11 "effect_se": 0.03598488399675878,12 "hac_lags": 4,13 "effect_ci_low": -0.3262968043702248,14 "effect_ci_high": -0.18523865112722682,15 "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,16 "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,17 "chow_f_stat": 6.090333006233798,18 "chow_p_value": 0.0026363238517333456,19 "stability_conclusion": "unstable",20 "conclusion": "negative_effect",21 "feasibility": "complete",22 "feasibility_reason": null,23 "data_issues": [24 {25 "issue": "UNRATE 2025-10-01 value is blank in the FRED file",26 "handling": "dropped; outside the 1959Q4-2019Q4 window, no effect on estimates"27 },28 {29 "issue": "Files extend to 2026 (beyond question period)",30 "handling": "truncated to 1959Q4-2019Q4 levels before differencing; no post-2019Q4 data enters any estimate"31 },32 {33 "issue": "Data are the 2026 vintage (revised, chained 2017 dollars), not real-time",34 "handling": "used as provided; noted as limitation"35 }36 ],37 "n_input_rows": {38 "GDPC1.csv": 319,39 "UNRATE.csv": 94540 },41 "n_analysed": 240,42 "random_seed": null,43 "r_squared_full": 0.4082508284562034,44 "effect_se_ols_classical": 0.01996009291490984,45 "chow_df": [46 2,47 23648 ],49 "hac_lags_sub1": 3,50 "hac_lags_sub2": 4,51 "slope_se_sub1_hac": 0.03921717107661775,52 "slope_se_sub2_hac": 0.06879369233083425,53 "intercept_sub1": 0.2542326539884382,54 "intercept_sub2": 0.15168581347724602,55 "effect_se_hac_lags8": 0.03729120927832668,56 "hac_wald_slope_diff_p": 0.8549842111206841,57 "hac_wald_intercept_diff_p": 0.25511124393301005,58 "hac_wald_joint_p": 0.005229923279613946,59 "resid_var_sub1": 0.07850312611325812,60 "resid_var_sub2": 0.04827674526450526,61 "mean_du": -0.008333333333333335,62 "mean_g": 0.75350275506523763}