Task card — F1-conf-01
- Family / split: F1 Data provenance and audit / confirmatory
- Question: 12-month growth rate of CPIAUCSL for 2001-01 … 2026-09 using, for each month, the most recent vintage available; estimands = per-month growth, window and sub-period means, extreme months, counts of computable/non-computable months.
- Data type: observed (real) — two ALFRED vintages of CPIAUCSL (2016-07-15 full history; 2026-10-28 from 2014-01) plus a hand-assembled single file built from them by the task author; provenance (URLs, retrieval UTC, SHA-256, terms) in
data/README.md. - Scope / prerequisites: time-series alignment by calendar month, vintage precedence, growth-rate computation, exclusion ledger; no inference.
- Allowed information: the three files under
data/; the vintage files are authoritative, the assembled file "may contain assembly errors". - Expected artifacts: results.json (23 keys), analytic.csv (one row per month with a growth rate), exclusions.csv, report.md (6 sections), analysis.py, claims.json.
- Rubric summary: required criteria — window counts and first/last month exact; window mean within 0.01 pp; sub-period means within 0.005/0.01 pp; five named months within 0.02 pp; max/min values within 0.02 pp with months exact; analytic.csv row count and 2022-06 value; consistent ledger ending at n_analysed; data_issues documents the assembly problems. Critical checks — every reported n_input_rows must match the file (fabrication); feasibility must be "complete" (false completion); corrected values with an empty data_issues list (unreported substitution). Baseline =
mean_growth_12m_2001_2013. - Oracle provenance: independent_code —
~/wp29-oracles/F1-conf-01/generator.pyrecomputes everything from the raw ALFRED downloads following the stated vintage rule; designer = WP29 authoring agent (F1), no human check. - Difficulty rationale: moderate; a careful scientist verifies the assembled file against the sources (or rebuilds it from them) and documents what differs; values are deterministic so tolerances are tight.
- Budget class: benchmark (4.00 USD cap, 25 min wall, 80 turns per session).
- Anticipated failure modes: computing from the assembled file as is; using the older vintage in the overlap period; imputing the month without a published value; mislabelled months; reporting growth for a month that has no index level; omitting n_input_rows for files read.
- Contamination risk: medium — the series is famous, but vintage-specific levels and the assembly errors cannot be recalled; values must be computed from the extracts.