- 2026-10-30 P0 contract written. P1 audit: data clean, no exclusions.
- 2026-10-30 P2 baseline: iid OLS reproduces memo (b=0.1017, se=0.0448, t=2.27, p=0.0238).
- 2026-10-30 P3 decision: bandwidth = Andrews (1991) AR(1) plug-in for Bartlett on slope score -> 8 lags; sensitivity 5..24 lags. Normal p-values, statsmodels small-sample correction n/(n-k).
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed (gate run 1). P5 report+claims written; final gate run.
- 2026-10-30 Final gate PASSED (20261030T040605.483531Z). Task complete.