- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; decision: exclude COVID window 2020-03..2021-12 from model training (pre-specified), sensitivity without exclusion.
- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed (naive + ardl_emp_direct). P4 passed: reproducible, all checks pass.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report and claims written. Task complete.