Log
- 2026-10-30 P0: read TASK.md, wrote contract. passed.
- 2026-10-30 P1: audited data (hash matches README), exclusions ledger written by analysis.py. passed.
- 2026-10-30 P2: baseline = zero-change RMSE on evaluation period (baseline_metric). passed.
- 2026-10-30 P3: analysis.py written; decision: Welch interval for Monday contrast; no randomness (seed null). Fixed holiday-gap counter definition (was missing mid-week holidays). passed.
- 2026-10-30 P4: clean double rerun identical; checks.md written. passed.
- 2026-10-30 P5: report.md and claims.json written. passed.