1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Memo's conclusion: the OLS slope of y on x is statistically significant at the 5% level.","results_keys":["p_hac","t_hac","memo_claim_supported"],"status":"unsupported","caveat":"With Newey-West HAC SE (8 lags) p = 0.119; the claim relied on iid SEs invalid under autocorrelated errors."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The memo's point estimate and conventional SE are arithmetically reproduced (beta 0.1017, se 0.0448, p 0.0238).","results_keys":["beta_hat","alpha_hat","se_iid","p_iid","memo_reproduced"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Reproduction is to the memo's rounding."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"OLS residuals are strongly serially correlated (rho about 0.61), so iid SEs are invalid.","results_keys":["rho_resid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Slightly below the stated DGP value of ~0.7."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"The HAC SE is about 1.46 times the iid SE and the 95% HAC CI [-0.026, 0.230] contains zero.","results_keys":["se_hac","se_iid","se_ratio_hac_over_iid","beta_ci_low","beta_ci_high"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Normal-reference CI; NW may still understate uncertainty under high persistence."},6 {"id":"C5","text":"The non-significance verdict is robust to HAC bandwidths from 4 to 24 lags.","results_keys":["hac_sensitivity","any_sensitivity_p_lt_005","hac_lags"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Only Bartlett kernel examined."}7]8