Task card — F2-smoke-01
- Family / split: F2 Estimation and inference / development (smoke test)
- Question: OLS slope of y on x with firm-clustered uncertainty; estimand = linear-projection slope β.
- Data type: synthetic (simulated, seed 20261029), 2,000 rows, 50 firms × 40 observations, strong within-firm correlation (firm shock variance 1 = idiosyncratic variance).
- Scope / prerequisites: OLS, cluster-robust variance; no exclusions needed.
- Allowed information:
data/panel.csvonly. - Expected artifacts: results.json (14 keys), report.md (6 sections), analysis.py, claims.json.
- Rubric summary: required criteria — slope to 1e-4; cluster SE within 8% of the CR1 reference; CI bounds within 0.03; exact counts; cluster SE > conventional SE. Critical checks — input row count must be reported correctly (fabrication), feasibility must be "complete" (false completion/false blocking). Baseline = conventional SE.
- Oracle provenance: independent numpy implementation (
~/wp29-oracles/F2-smoke-01/generator.py), designer = WP29 executor; no human check. - Difficulty rationale: easy; exists to validate plumbing, treatment delivery and evaluators in all four arms.
- Budget class: benchmark (4.00 USD cap, 25 min wall, 80 turns per session).
- Anticipated failure modes: forgetting clustering; using HC-robust instead of cluster-robust SE; wrong CI critical value (both accepted by tolerance); missing common keys.
- Contamination risk: low (fresh simulated data; the method is textbook, which is intended).