1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Memo's claim: the OLS slope of y on x is statistically significant at the 5% level.","results_keys":["memo_claim_supported","p_hac","t_hac","se_hac"],"status":"unsupported","caveat":"With Newey-West HAC SE (Bartlett, 8 lags) p = 0.119; not significant for any bandwidth from 5 to 24 lags."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The memo's point estimates (alpha 2.0925, beta 0.1017) and conventional SE (0.0448) are reproduced exactly.","results_keys":["alpha_hat","beta_hat","se_iid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The conventional SE assumes i.i.d. errors, which the residual diagnostics reject."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"OLS residuals are strongly serially correlated (lag-1 autocorrelation about 0.61), so the i.i.d. standard error understates uncertainty.","results_keys":["rho_resid","se_iid","se_hac"],"status":"supported","caveat":"HAC SE is about 46% larger than the i.i.d. SE."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"The 95% HAC confidence interval for beta, [-0.026, 0.230], contains zero.","results_keys":["beta_ci_low","beta_ci_high"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Normal-approximation interval; NW HAC may be undersized in persistent data, which would widen it further."}6]7