1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Memo's conclusion: the OLS slope of y on x is statistically significant at the 5% level.","results_keys":["memo_claim_supported","p_hac","t_hac","se_hac"],"status":"unsupported","caveat":"With a Newey-West HAC SE (Bartlett, 8 lags), p is about 0.12. The claim holds only under iid-error SEs, which are invalid given residual autocorrelation of about 0.61."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The OLS point estimates are alpha = 2.0925 and beta = 0.1017, reproducing the memo.","results_keys":["alpha_hat","beta_hat","se_iid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates are unaffected by the choice of SE."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"The OLS residuals are strongly serially correlated (lag-1 autocorrelation about 0.61), so conventional SEs understate the uncertainty.","results_keys":["rho_resid","se_iid","se_hac"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The HAC SE is about 1.46 times the iid SE."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"The 95% HAC confidence interval for beta, [-0.026, 0.230], contains zero, and this holds across bandwidths of 5 to 36 lags.","results_keys":["beta_ci_low","beta_ci_high","hac_sensitivity_by_lags"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Newey-West tests may over-reject with persistent data. Fixed-b inference was not run."}6]7