1# F4-conf-04 — Reference-list verification23## Question4For each of five references (R1–R5) in a draft manuscript, check against the provided source extract whether (i) the title matches, (ii) the year equals the first-submission year or the year of the reproduced version, and (iii) the finding attributed to it ("cited_for") is stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract. A reference that fails any check counts as unverifiable.56## Data and exclusions7Inputs: `data/reference_list.json` (5 items), the five extracts in `data/sources/` (134, 58, 107, 66 and 91 lines) and `data/README.md` (17 lines). The only evidence used was the extracts (header plus body). I used nothing from memory or from outside bibliographic sources, and excluded no data.89## Method10`out/analysis.py` reads each extract and prints the lines it relies on. Those lines are the `Title:` and `Bibliographic record:` header lines plus the table rows and sentences that decide each finding.11- Title: both titles are normalised (accents stripped, lower case, "&" turned into "and", punctuation removed) and then compared for exact equality.12- Year: the entry year is compared with every submission year in the bibliographic record. It passes if it equals the first-submission year or the year of the reproduced version.13- Finding: every element of `cited_for` is checked against printed cells. The elements are magnitude, SE or CI, significance, timing and population/design. Printed derived quantities are re-computed where possible: exp(ATT)−1, |t|, β/mean, and affected-employment/affected-wage.1415## Results16| ref | title | year | finding | locator |17|---|---|---|---|---|18| R1 | ✓ | ✓ (2026) | ✓ | arxiv-2609.27732v1, Table 6, 5 km column: ATT −0.431**, SE (0.210), −35.0%; abstract |19| R2 | ✓ | ✓ (2026) | ✓ | arxiv-2606.14621v1, Table 2, ATE column: $1,153 [166, 2,141]; 1.47 pp; −1.99 weeks; abstract: N = 23,549, preregistered RCT |20| R3 | ✗ | ✗ (entry 2024 vs submissions 2026) | ✗ | arxiv-2603.03260v2, Sect. 3.2 (τ=0 coefficient 0.005), Table 3 clean-onset row (τ=4 0.037, τ=5 0.034) |21| R4 | ✓ | ✓ (2025 = v1 year) | ✓ | arxiv-2505.04555v3, App. A.1 Table 2: −0.388 (0.132), −0.732 (0.091) |22| R5 | ✓ | ✓ (2025) | ✓ | arxiv-2510.03658v1, Table 3 col (4): −0.0962 (0.0129), % change −0.3685; Sect. 4.1 says col (4) is preferred |2324**Unverifiable references: [R3]. 4 of 5 references pass all three checks.**2526R3 fails all three checks:27- Title: the entry's title, "Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London", differs from the document's title, "Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London".28- Year: the entry gives 2024, but the paper was submitted in 2026 (v1 3 Mar, v2 2 Apr).29- Finding: the manuscript says prices *jump* by 3.4–3.7% in the entry year and do not rise further. The source says the reverse. It reports about 0.5% (0.005) in the event year, a gradual rise to 0.037 and 0.034 at τ=4 and τ=5, and states that "prices do not jump immediately". The citation gets the timing wrong.3031Arithmetic checks that pass:32- R1: exp(−0.431)−1 = −35.0% and |t| = 2.05.33- R4: −0.268/0.366 = −0.732.34- R5: −0.0962/0.261 = −0.3686, consistent with the printed −0.3685 (36.85%).3536## Uncertainty37This is a deterministic document check with no sampling uncertainty. The judgement calls are listed here.38- R1: Table 6 prints SE (0.210) for the 5 km CS-DR ATT, but Appendix Table A19 prints (0.218) for what appears to be the same estimate. I treated the main-text Table 6 as decisive, because the cited value appears there verbatim. Significance at 5% holds under either SE (|t| = 2.05 or 1.98), so the substance of the claim does not depend on which SE is correct. A stricter reviewer might still ask the authors to say which SE they mean.39- R3: the finding fails because of timing, not magnitude. The 3.4–3.7% figure does appear in the source, but for years 4–5, not the entry year.4041## Limitations and open issues42Internal inconsistencies found in the sources (they are also listed in `data_issues`):43- arxiv-2609.27732v1:44 - The SE differs between Table 6 and Table A19 (0.210 vs 0.218).45 - The A19 note says 640 control regions; everywhere else says 608.46 - The abstract says fatal outcomes fall "by 35%", while Table 7 and Section 6.1 imply about 30%.47- arxiv-2510.03658v1: the text cites a Table 2 estimate (−0.0855, mean 0.455). That table is not in the extract, so I did not use it.48- arxiv-2603.03260v2: the Table 3 header is garbled in the source rendering. I used the column order given in the extract editor's note.4950Other limitations:51- The extracts are partial. Anything outside them was treated as unavailable, but no cited element depended on omitted material.52- Author formatting was not assessed, as the rules instruct.53