1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Memo's conclusion: the OLS slope of y on x is statistically significant at the 5% level.","results_keys":["memo_claim_supported","p_hac","t_hac"],"status":"unsupported","caveat":"The memo's numbers are reproduced exactly, but its iid standard error ignores serial correlation; with HAC SE p_hac = 0.120."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The memo's point estimates and iid SE are reproduced exactly (slope 0.1017, SE 0.0448, t 2.27, p 0.0238).","results_keys":["beta_hat","alpha_hat","se_iid","baseline_t_iid","baseline_p_iid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The reproduction confirms the arithmetic, not the validity of the iid SE."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"OLS residuals are strongly positively autocorrelated (rho about 0.61), so iid standard errors understate uncertainty; the HAC SE is about 1.46 times the iid SE.","results_keys":["rho_resid","se_hac","se_iid","se_ratio_hac_to_iid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"HAC SE with Andrews AR(1) plug-in bandwidth of 9 lags."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"The 95% HAC confidence interval for beta [-0.026, 0.230] contains zero, and this non-significance holds for all bandwidths from 5 to 24 lags.","results_keys":["beta_ci_low","beta_ci_high","hac_lags","hac_sensitivity"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Normal reference distribution; fixed-b inference would be more conservative still."}6]7