1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Memo's conclusion: the OLS slope of y on x is statistically significant at the 5% level.","results_keys":["memo_claim_supported","p_hac","t_hac","se_hac"],"status":"unsupported","caveat":"Significant only with iid SEs (p=0.024); with HAC SEs p≈0.12 for all bandwidths from 5 to 24 lags."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The memo's point estimates (alpha≈2.0925, beta≈0.1017) and iid SE (0.0448) are reproduced exactly.","results_keys":["alpha_hat","beta_hat","se_iid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The reproduction is correct; the issue is the choice of SE."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"OLS residuals are strongly serially correlated (rho≈0.61), so iid SEs are invalid.","results_keys":["rho_resid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Sample autocorrelation of estimated residuals."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"The HAC 95% CI for beta, [-0.026, 0.230], contains zero.","results_keys":["beta_ci_low","beta_ci_high","hac_lags"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Normal approximation with 9 Bartlett lags (Andrews plug-in); it does not show that beta = 0."}6]7