1[2 {"id": "C1", "text": "Memo's claim: the slope of y on x is statistically significant at the 5% level.", "results_keys": ["p_hac", "beta_ci_low", "beta_ci_high", "memo_claim_supported"], "status": "unsupported", "caveat": "With HAC SE (9 lags) p_hac=0.120 and the 95% CI includes 0; the claim only holds under the invalid iid SE."},3 {"id": "C2", "text": "The memo's point estimates and naive SE are reproduced exactly (beta 0.1017, alpha 2.0925, se 0.0448, p 0.0238).", "results_keys": ["beta_hat", "alpha_hat", "se_iid", "t_iid", "p_iid"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "The reproduction is correct arithmetic, but the iid SE is inappropriate for these data."},4 {"id": "C3", "text": "OLS residuals are strongly serially correlated (rho about 0.61), so iid standard errors are invalid.", "results_keys": ["rho_resid"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Sample estimate; the DGP value stated in TASK.md is about 0.7."},5 {"id": "C4", "text": "The HAC standard error (0.0654, 9 lags) is about 1.46 times the iid SE, giving t=1.56.", "results_keys": ["se_hac", "hac_lags", "t_hac", "se_iid"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Bandwidth from the Andrews AR(1) plug-in rule."},6 {"id": "C5", "text": "The non-significance verdict holds for every HAC bandwidth from 1 to 24 lags.", "results_keys": ["hac_sensitivity", "sensitivity_all_p_above_005_for_lags_ge_1"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Only the 0-lag (heteroskedasticity-only) SE gives p<0.05, and it ignores autocorrelation."}7]8