1[2 {"id": "C1", "text": "Memo's conclusion: the OLS slope of y on x is statistically significant at the 5% level.", "results_keys": ["memo_claim_supported", "p_hac", "t_hac", "se_hac"], "status": "unsupported", "caveat": "Significance only holds with the iid standard error (p_iid), which is invalid under the strongly autocorrelated residuals (rho_resid)."},3 {"id": "C2", "text": "The memo's point estimates and iid standard error are reproduced exactly from the data.", "results_keys": ["beta_hat", "alpha_hat", "se_iid", "p_iid"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "The point estimate is not in dispute; only its uncertainty is."},4 {"id": "C3", "text": "OLS residuals are strongly positively autocorrelated, so iid standard errors are invalid.", "results_keys": ["rho_resid"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Lag-1 coefficient only; higher-order dependence summarised by the HAC estimator."},5 {"id": "C4", "text": "With a Newey-West Bartlett HAC SE (8 lags, Andrews plug-in), the slope is not significant at 5%; the 95% CI includes zero.", "results_keys": ["se_hac", "hac_lags", "t_hac", "p_hac", "beta_ci_low", "beta_ci_high"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "HAC inference is asymptotic; with persistent x and u it can still be somewhat oversized, which would only strengthen the non-rejection."},6 {"id": "C5", "text": "The non-significance verdict is robust to bandwidth choice (5 to 24 lags).", "results_keys": ["hac_sensitivity", "nw_rule_of_thumb_lags"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Bartlett kernel only."}7]8