1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Memo's claim: the slope of y on x is statistically significant at the 5% level.","results_keys":["memo_claim_supported","p_hac","t_hac","beta_ci_low","beta_ci_high"],"status":"unsupported","caveat":"Using Newey-West HAC SE (8 lags), p = 0.119 and the 95% CI contains zero."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"OLS with iid standard errors reproduces the memo's estimates (slope 0.1017, SE 0.0448, t 2.27, p 0.0238).","results_keys":["beta_hat","alpha_hat","se_iid","t_iid","p_iid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The iid SE is invalid when the errors are serially correlated."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"OLS residuals are strongly autocorrelated, and the HAC SE is about 1.46 times the iid SE.","results_keys":["rho_resid","se_hac","se_iid","se_ratio_hac_to_iid"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The residual autocorrelation estimate is biased downward in finite samples."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"The non-significance verdict holds for every HAC bandwidth from 5 to 24 lags.","results_keys":["hac_sensitivity","sensitivity_all_insignificant","hac_lags","nw_rule_of_thumb_lags"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Only Bartlett-kernel Newey-West with normal critical values was examined."}6]7