1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-03",3 "n_origins": 60,4 "first_origin": "2021-09-01",5 "last_origin": "2026-08-01",6 "lambda": 50.0,7 "normalisation_window": "expanding",8 "n_features": 8,9 "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,10 "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,11 "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,12 "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,13 "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,14 "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,15 "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,16 "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,17 "dm_stat_ridge_vs_naive": -3.3649594921847754,18 "dm_pvalue_ridge_vs_naive": 0.0013506687241571726,19 "dm_stat_ridge_vs_mean": 0.5392198591267084,20 "dm_pvalue_ridge_vs_mean": 0.5917642583421929,21 "feasibility": "complete",22 "feasibility_reason": null,23 "data_issues": [24 {25 "issue": "neworder_chg missing for 1992-01 and 1992-02 (series starts 1992-02)",26 "handling": "Not needed: first ridge training row is 1992-03 per spec; no imputation."27 },28 {29 "issue": "README says the first month of every change series is empty, but ip_growth, oil_chg, permit_chg are populated for 1992-01",30 "handling": "Values used as given (ip_growth 1992-01 enters only as lag 2 of training row 1992-03); noted as documentation inconsistency."31 },32 {33 "issue": "Extreme COVID-19 observations (ip_growth 2020-04 = -14.1, 2020-06 = +6.3; oil_chg 2020-03..05 ~ +/-55) inside every training window",34 "handling": "Retained as genuine data, as the ridge specification fixes the training rows; they affect mu, sigma and coefficients."35 },36 {37 "issue": "Current-vintage (revised) data; publication lags ignored",38 "handling": "Accepted per TASK.md; results are not real-time forecast accuracy."39 }40 ],41 "n_input_rows": {42 "ip_predictors.csv": 41743 },44 "n_analysed": 413,45 "random_seed": null46}