1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-03",3 "n_origins": 60,4 "first_origin": "2021-09-01",5 "last_origin": "2026-08-01",6 "lambda": 50.0,7 "normalisation_window": "expanding",8 "n_features": 8,9 "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,10 "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,11 "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,12 "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,13 "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,14 "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,15 "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,16 "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,17 "baseline_best_rmse": 0.5439355781141625,18 "dm_stat_ridge_vs_naive": 3.3649594921847754,19 "dm_pvalue_ridge_vs_naive": 0.0013506687241571726,20 "dm_stat_ridge_vs_mean": -0.5392198591267084,21 "dm_pvalue_ridge_vs_mean": 0.5917642583421929,22 "feasibility": "complete",23 "feasibility_reason": null,24 "data_issues": [25 {26 "issue": "neworder_chg missing for 1992-01 and 1992-02 (series starts 1992-02).",27 "handling": "Not used: earliest neworder_chg needed is 1992-03 (first training row)."28 },29 {30 "issue": "README states the first month (1992-01) of every change series is empty, but ip_growth, oil_chg and permit_chg are populated for 1992-01.",31 "handling": "Values used as given; only ip_growth 1992-01 enters (lag-2 feature of training row 1992-03)."32 },33 {34 "issue": "Extreme COVID-19 observations (e.g. ip_growth 2020-04 = -14.1, oil_chg 2020-03..05) lie in every training window.",35 "handling": "Kept, as the task prescribes the training window; no outlier rule applied."36 },37 {38 "issue": "Current-vintage data; publication lags ignored.",39 "handling": "Errors computed on revised data as instructed; no real-time validity claimed."40 }41 ],42 "n_input_rows": {43 "ip_predictors.csv": 41744 },45 "n_analysed": 413,46 "random_seed": null47}