1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-03",3 "n_origins": 60,4 "first_origin": "2021-09-01",5 "last_origin": "2026-08-01",6 "lambda": 50.0,7 "normalisation_window": "expanding",8 "n_features": 8,9 "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,10 "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,11 "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,12 "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,13 "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,14 "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,15 "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,16 "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,17 "dm_stat_vs_naive": 3.3649594921847754,18 "dm_pvalue_vs_naive": 0.0013506687241571726,19 "dm_stat_vs_mean": -0.5392198591267081,20 "dm_pvalue_vs_mean": 0.591764258342193,21 "feasibility": "complete",22 "feasibility_reason": null,23 "data_issues": [24 {25 "issue": "neworder_chg missing for 1992-01 and 1992-02 (NEWORDER starts 1992-02)",26 "handling": "not used: ridge training rows start at 1992-03-01 as specified"27 },28 {29 "issue": "data/README.md says the first month (1992-01) of every change series is empty, but the file contains values for ip_growth, oil_chg and permit_chg in 1992-01",30 "handling": "values used as given; ip_growth 1992-01 enters only as the 2nd lag of the 1992-03 training row, as implied by the TASK.md specification"31 },32 {33 "issue": "extreme COVID-19 observations in 2020-03..2020-06 (ip_growth -14.1 to +6.3 percent) inside every training window",34 "handling": "kept, as the specification defines the training window without exclusions; noted as a limitation"35 },36 {37 "issue": "current-vintage (revised) data with publication lags ignored",38 "handling": "results reported as pseudo-out-of-sample on revised data, not real-time"39 }40 ],41 "n_input_rows": {42 "ip_predictors.csv": 41743 },44 "n_analysed": 413,45 "random_seed": null46}