1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Real-time naive forecasts had RMSE 2.01 pp (h=1) and 2.27 pp (h=2) against first releases over 8 origins.","results_keys":["rmse_naive_h1","rmse_naive_h2","mae_naive_h1","mae_naive_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Only 8 errors per horizon."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The real-time AR(1) had lower RMSE than naive at both horizons (relative improvement 0.26 at h=1, 0.38 at h=2) and lower MAE.","results_keys":["rmse_model_h1","rmse_model_h2","mae_model_h1","mae_model_h2","rel_improvement_rmse_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates only; driven largely by the 2025Q1 contraction episode."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"The AR(1) advantage is not statistically significant (DM-HLN p = 0.18 at h=1, 0.12 at h=2).","results_keys":["dm_hln_stat_h1","dm_hln_pvalue_two_sided_h1","dm_hln_stat_h2","dm_hln_pvalue_two_sided_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Asymptotic test with small-sample correction; low power with n=8."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"First releases of the h=1 target quarters were revised by 0.56 pp on average (absolute) by 2026-10-30.","results_keys":["mean_abs_revision_h1_targets"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Uses current_vintage.csv for discussion only, not for forecasting."}6]7