1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-02",3 "model_name": "ar1_1985_excovid",4 "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS at each origin on the origin's vintage, sample 1985Q1 to last published quarter, excluding regression pairs involving 2020Q2-2020Q3 (COVID outliers); h=2 forecast iterated.",5 "n_origins": 8,6 "first_origin": "2024-01-31",7 "last_origin": "2025-12-31",8 "rmse_naive_h1": 2.0103,9 "mae_naive_h1": 1.6875,10 "rmse_naive_h2": 2.2652,11 "mae_naive_h2": 1.8125,12 "rmse_model_h1": 1.4855,13 "mae_model_h1": 1.2337,14 "rmse_model_h2": 1.4001,15 "mae_model_h2": 1.0298,16 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.2611,17 "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.3819,18 "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625,19 "feasibility": "complete",20 "feasibility_reason": null,21 "data_issues": [22 {23 "issue": "No 2025-10-31 vintage: 2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by federal shutdown; 8th origin is 2025-12-31 (gap of 5 months between last two origins)",24 "handling": "used origins as provided; horizons defined relative to last quarter in each file"25 },26 {27 "issue": "Extreme COVID observations 2020Q2 (~-28%) and 2020Q3 (~+35%) dominate OLS AR estimates",28 "handling": "regression pairs with dependent or lagged value in 2020Q2-2020Q3 excluded from AR estimation (pre-specified, not tuned on outcomes)"29 }30 ],31 "n_input_rows": {32 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,33 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,34 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,35 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,36 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,37 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,38 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,39 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 314,40 "current_vintage.csv": 318,41 "first_release.csv": 1342 },43 "n_analysed": 160,44 "random_seed": null45}