1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Real-time naive forecast RMSE vs first releases was 2.01 pp at h=1 and 2.27 pp at h=2 over 8 origins.","results_keys":["rmse_naive_h1","rmse_naive_h2","mae_naive_h1","mae_naive_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Only 8 origins in 2024-2025."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The AR(1) (1985Q1+, COVID rows excluded) had lower RMSE than naive: 1.48 pp at h=1 and 1.40 pp at h=2, relative improvements 0.26 and 0.38.","results_keys":["rmse_model_h1","rmse_model_h2","mae_model_h1","mae_model_h2","rel_improvement_rmse_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates only; see C3."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"The AR(1) advantage is not statistically significant with 8 origins (DM-HLN p = 0.18 at h=1, 0.12 at h=2).","results_keys":["supp_dm_hln_pvalue_h1","supp_dm_hln_pvalue_h2","supp_dm_hln_stat_h1","supp_dm_hln_stat_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"DM test has low power and approximate size at n=8; h=2 errors are serially correlated."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"The AR(1) beat naive in absolute error at 5/8 origins for h=1 and 8/8 for h=2.","results_keys":["supp_n_origins_model_abs_err_lt_naive_h1","supp_n_origins_model_abs_err_lt_naive_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Counts, not tests."},6 {"id":"C5","text":"The mean absolute revision from first release to the 2026-10-30 value for the 8 h=1 targets is 0.56 pp.","results_keys":["mean_abs_revision_h1_targets","supp_revisions_h1_targets"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Later revisions may still occur."},7 {"id":"C6","text":"The AR(1) estimates were stable across vintages (phi 0.335-0.343, implied mean 2.62-2.66%).","results_keys":["supp_ar1_phi_range","supp_ar1_implied_mean_range"],"status":"supported","caveat":""}8]9