- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written. Starting P1 audit.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: audit written, hashes match. Decision: model = AR(1) OLS, 1985Q1+, exclude rows t=2020Q2..Q4, iterated h=2; fixed before evaluation.
- 2026-10-30 P2 passed: naive baseline in results.json (rmse_naive_, mae_naive_).
- 2026-10-30 P3 passed: analysis.py written; DM-HLN supplementary test added (lag h-1 LRV).
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed: reproducibility + checks; gate receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T042011.753918Z.json (failures only for P5 artifacts).
- 2026-10-30 P5: report, claims written; final gate run.
- 2026-10-30 final gate passed: out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T042047.632251Z.json